Hell no!
Among people that only use their computers as a web browser, chat client, and a way to check their Facebook and Twitter accounts, computers in general became obsolete the second Smartphones came out. For people that actually use computers (especially gamers and artists), desktops will trump laptops for a long time to come.
My low-end $500 desktop can beat just about any laptop that costs under $1500, especially in graphics, and if anything breaks on it, I can replace the broken part myself, and that part will be far cheaper than the laptop equivalent. So for people that actually use a computer as intended rather than just an on-ramp to the internet, desktops are here to stay.
I can see laptops supplanting desktops when the following things happen:
- Battery life surpasses 12 hours in real-world use. None of this “up to…” stuff, but a solid half-day with full sound, display brightness, wifi, and all. Right now, the best laptops get around half that; anybody who claims otherwise turned at least one thing off.
- Performance is comparable Right now, mobile CPUs are ⅓–½ the power of their desktop equivalents, partly due to power consumption and the resulting effects on battery life. And the GPU performance of most laptops is abysmal. Not important for those who don’t need any computer more powerful than those made a decade ago (about the power level of a netbook or iPad) but very important to a lot of other people.
- Superconductors Another part of the reason for the performance disparity between desktops and mobile systems is heat. My desktop CPU is about the size of my fist. Now, would you want a laptop with a grapefruit-sized bulge in it? Oh, and the heatsink on my GPU is about the size of a thick paperback book. And let us not forget the fans.
Even with all that cooling, there are parts of my desktop that get hot enough to blister flesh under full computing load. You do not want that in a laptop, so you need a chip that can have electricity pass through it without generating waste heat; in other words, superconductors.
- Lightweight Folding big-screens Sometimes I just have to have my big screen, but I don’t want to deal with the bulk or weight of it. Try hauling a 20” LCD monitor around and you’ll start to see what I mean. Now haul two of them.
- Virtual Reality The lower limit on the size of any computer is based on the input and output. Many have trouble typing on a laptop and an even worse time typing on a smartphone, so you can’t have a laptop smaller than a full-sized desktop keyboard; something I find too large and unwieldy to carry comfortably, so I sacrifice a little for my 13” laptop.
Many also squint on a netbook’s 10.1” screen and go batty with a smartphone, so you can’t get a laptop any smaller than teh smallest screen you can reasonably see.
Both of those considerations go away with VR, especially one based on a direct neural connection. Imagine the computer’s display sent right into the visual cortex of your brain. Don’t bother typing; just think it and the computer will read the neural impulses and translate them into text. Even a more primitive interface like a pair of gloves and a display bult into a pair of glasses would work, as would Sixth Sense
Until at least half of those things happen, desktops will be here to stay.