The situation in Zimbabwe reminds me of discussions regarding the strategy for health care reform. Single payer, many of us believe, is the only answer that will work. Do we oppose reform until the people hurt so much they are willing to support reform, or do we support reform because even though it is unsupportable and will cost way too much, there are people out there who need help. Now.
Do we kill this patient in order to save the next five? Or do we save this one and keep things really bad for other patients for a long time? I.e., things have to get really, really, really bad before the people will want (the right kind of) change.
The people of Zimbabwe need relief now. Yet getting that relief means an increasing likelihood that anti-democratic Mugabe will remain in power. But the opposition won’t get elected unless they support the end of sanctions because the people are more interested in food than political leaders (maybe).
What is the opposition to do? If they support sanctions, they lose because the people won’t like them. If they oppose sanctions… well, that’s interesting. If they oppose sanctions the people may like them, but how likely is it that the US will lift sanctions if the opposition wishes it?
So if the opposition opposes sanctions, they can hope that the US won’t pay attention to them, or they can make it clear (privately) that they really want sanctions to stay. They are probably bad at diplomacy and don’t know how to hint at things without actually saying them. Also, they may not behave as if someone could be listening. So they say it out loud, on a record. And got caught.
Diplomacy is so hard. Worse when the US can’t keep it’s communications private. The US was sloppy. The opposition was sloppy. They got caught. Dem’s de breaks.
There’s no certainty that if the Wikileaks revelation hadn’t happened that the opposition would have won. In fact, the outcome is still not determined. That’s why there are elections.
In any case, I don’t think Wikileaks can be stopped. This information, once stolen from the US, would get out in one way or another. I think the brouhaha about this is closing the barn door after the horse is stolen. We need to pay attention to security and do a better job. That includes being more careful about what we say as well as finding a better lock box.