But there are probably many cases where the interactions between tens, if not hundreds or thousands of genes are responsible for various outcomes. At best, you might be able to identify types of outcomes, but it seems like the individual outcomes could be infinite, or close to it. Even with quantum computers, I am skeptical that we model even enough of the interactions to be able to have even a small level of confidence that any meddling we do will result in the outcome we desire.
Like I say, we may be able to know categories of outcomes, but I don’t think we’ll ever be able to be very specific, except in cases where only one or two genes are involved. Although, even then, to identify all the ways that gene… or shit, how about the alleles? I don’t know how complex they are. My knowledge of genetics is not that great. My understanding is the the alleles are where the action really takes place.
You say we can get down to the atomic level in understanding what they do. I say that’s fine and wonderful, but it isn’t sufficient, even if we map every piece of genetic material in a human body to an atomic level, it won’t be sufficient because there are too many possible interactions. I doubt if the probabilities of any particular outcome from an interaction or set of interactions will be very high.
So we’re going to be left playing craps, and that won’t be good enough. People will need to have much more confidence than that in order to allow themselves to be messed with, genetically.
Of course, there will be animal experiments, and we’ll see how close we hit the mark. My guess is that it won’t be very close much of the time. It’s just an intuition I have based on what I do know about statistics. Biostats is a big field these days. All I know is where there are stats, there is uncertainty, and where there is uncertainty, people are not going to want to take chances on their health. Only those who are about to die will be willing to take those kinds of chances.
So I remain skeptical about the promises our fantasies about genetics have given us. We believe our power is much greater than I think it is. I hope I’m proven wrong, but I really think that the power of genetics is being oversold, both in the popular understanding, and even amongst, or perhaps mostly amongst true believers—those who work in the field.
I hope I’m wrong.
I guess I’m getting off the subject here.