Social Question

Rarebear's avatar

How much does a deterministic philosophy affect your view of the world?

Asked by Rarebear (25192points) March 14th, 2011

In the early 1800s, Determinism was very popular, and came directly out of the Enlightnment where reason was the primary source of thinking. One example of this thinking was written by Laplace in 1814. He wrote:

“If an intelligence, at a given instant, knew all the forces that aniumate nature and the position of each constituant being; if, moreover, this intelligence were sufficiently great to submit these data to analysis…to this intelligence nothing would be uncertain, and the future, as the past, would be present to the eyes.” (quoted by Mlodinow in The Drunkards Walk).

In short, if you could know every possible variable down to the smallest atom, you could predict the future.

This philosophy has prevailed for almost 200 years. For example, it was the basis of Asimov’s Foundation trilogy.

In the 1960s, a meterologist, Edward Lorenz, tried to use primitive computer modeling to predict the weather. His thinking was that if he could predict every weather variable, he could predict future weather. His experiment failed because every time he ran his modeling, he got different results. The issue turned out to be that the computer would only accept data to a certain decimal point—beyond that it couldn’t compute it. So for example, 2.513378697 would really be 2.513. But even though he wasn’t able to reproduce the results, he discovered the “butterfly effect”, hypothetically, how the flap of a butterfly’s wings could affect weather halfway around the world.

So my question is, how do you feel about determinism? Do you ever think about how if you could control every variable in your life you could control your future? Or do you accept randomness as a part of your life?

Observing members: 0 Composing members: 0

19 Answers

crisw's avatar

I am pretty deterministic. I think that, if we know all of the variables, it’s likely we can predict the system. My biggest uncertainty comes from the fact that I am no expert in quantum mechanics, which some have used as a method for discounting determinism.

12Oaks's avatar

Gotta accept randomness. Besides, what fun would American Idol be if that deterministic thing was working.

Neizvestnaya's avatar

I’m pretty deterministic, I weigh just about everything based on what experiences I’ve got or information because I like every advantage possible to me that I can affect… or I think I can affect. .

Soubresaut's avatar

Randomness.

Mostly because of knowing a (tiny) bit of quantum physics. We can never know both location and velocity of subatomic particles, only one or the other. And probably more importantly, at the smallest level, it’s all probabilities, nothing is for sure before it happens. So how could we possibly predict with certainty everything to happen in higher levels?
Currently working impatiently to catch up on schoolwork so I can get some books on the matter, actually.

Partly because of the ‘butterfly effect’.

Partly because I can’t fathom a universe that’s, at least entirely, predictable.—If that is the way things are, then we all have destinies of sorts, because all we’re doing is following chemical reactions that are happening because chemical reactions happened before them, and others before that. And I don’t believe that my life is predetermined. My life isn’t predetermined.

Rarebear's avatar

And I’m with @DancingMind for pretty much the same reasons. I think that ultimately there is a level of randomness we cannot predict or control (even if we were omnicient).

ratboy's avatar

The “butterfly effect” refers to deterministic processes that exhibit sensitive dependence on initial conditions. It illustrates the fact that the world can be deterministic, but unpredictable.

Rarebear's avatar

@ratboy Fair enough, you are absolutely correct. So how much does randomness play?

the100thmonkey's avatar

Randomness – even quantum uncertainty – leaves no room for the agency of consciousness. If we are to explain consciousness without invoking some kind of mental causation that is not reducible to physical processes – however stochastic or unpredictable they may be – then we have to remove free will, as this ultimately reduces to unpredictable, but still deterministic, physical processes.

I don’t give the results of this position much thought, though – while I find the logic fundamentally valid, I find that the “illusion” of free will (if we are to call it that) is so strong that fatalism is impossible. Perhaps this is a psychological defence mechanism, perhaps it is not.

ninjacolin's avatar

You have to have faith and belief in the supernatural to reject determinism.

Rarebear's avatar

@ninjacolin I don’t follow. Why?

ninjacolin's avatar

@the100thmonkey the illusion of free will isn’t a defense mechanism against fatalism. The “illusion of free will” is simply a mistaken conclucions, AKA, a fallacy.

@Rarebear.. because we have no evidence of anything that isn’t a direct product of the past. The idea that things come from the past is what we could call a Natural concept. To believe that somethings might not have anything to do with the past or that they have the ability to defy the past “freely” requires a discounting of those otherwise accepted natural physical laws.

Nially_Bob's avatar

I have neither witnessed nor heard or read of any phenomena in this universe that cannot be explained by past occurrences that have directly or indirectly affected said phenomena. Hence, I believe in determinism.

Determinism however does not affect my general life. Even if the combination of variables that make up my entire existence will inevitably lead me to a single conclusion it does not in any manner detract from the experiences I have had and will have in time- “That which we call a rose. By any other name would smell as sweet”

the100thmonkey's avatar

@ninjacolin – I’m actually of the opinion that it’s an irrelevant label; it’s not even worth (correctly, but unnecessarily) attaching “fallacy” to the term. The tendency to forget and behave as if we have a choice overrides the declarative knowledge that we aren’t free.

Besides, I was talking about myself and not making a generalisation.

flutherother's avatar

I believe that the past present and future are already set and unchangeable and also that we have free will and that the Universe is unpredictable. How do I reconcile these irreconcilable notions? God only knows.

the100thmonkey's avatar

@flutherother – well, quite.

How do you get past the dissonance in knowing that you’re free to do whatever you choose, knowing that the tiniest influence in an initial condition can have a massive influence on the final state of the system, that the universe is determined and that God knows everything (which is the same as the universe is determined)?

flutherother's avatar

@the100thmonkey A multitude of random events can come together produce something predictable and on the other hand a simple and entirely deterministic system can give rise to the unexpected. Randomness and order are not mutually exclusive, on the contrary they are found together everywhere.

I think there is a sense in which the future already exists and can’t be changed but I believe we also have free will, not nearly as much as we think but some. I don’t know how these views can be reconciled but I think that is the reality. If we had no free will we would be turned to stone, if we were nothing but free will we would be like mist. We are something in between.

SavoirFaire's avatar

It’s important to clarify a few issues here. Our ability to predict how the events of our universe will unfold is separate from whether or not they are predictable in principle, randomness is not the same as unpredictability (in the standard terminology), and free will is separable into types (freedom of indifference, which is the robust metaphysical kind of free will, and liberty of spontaneity, which is freedom from certain sorts of constraints). It is also important to note that we are part of the causal chain on a determinist view, so we do in fact cause things to happen.

One could consistently hold, then, that everything is determined, that the universe is unpredictable by us, and that we have free will qua liberty of spontaneity, and that we are causal agents.

Rarebear's avatar

Just to lighten things up a little (even though this is a serious question) this is a song by Tim Minchin that is apropos.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IeZMIgheZro

Answer this question

Login

or

Join

to answer.
Your answer will be saved while you login or join.

Have a question? Ask Fluther!

What do you know more about?
or
Knowledge Networking @ Fluther