“The number of major armed conflicts (more than 1000 casualties annually) decreased from 33 in 1991 to 19 in 2003. The 2000s were the decade with the lowest number of war deaths since 1945 according to Steven Pinker. Humanity, despite the hardships and setbacks to which it is subjected, is following a millennia-long trend toward an increasingly high standard of living, thanks to the virtues of free exchange. Hunger, poverty and mortality, to mention a few, are all declining globally, and we have every reason to be optimistic about the future.
China would not go to war on the US or vice versa. It would be a self-destructive move, economically crippling to both countries. The EU, initially just an economic cooperation, has become a guarantor of peace between its member countries due to the inextricability of their trade networks and supply chains.
The ongoing proliferation of democracy is a vital part of war reduction: Whereas autocrats need no mandate from their peoples, and engage in armed conflict at their own discretion, electorates are generally reluctant to wage war, particularly against other democracies. How fortunate, then, that dictatorship is going out of style in favor of democracy; some time around 1989, the world went from being mostly ruled by dictators to being mostly ruled by citizens. Since then, democracies have become tremendously popular, and now greatly outnumber autocracies. Just in recent months, a wave of civic revolts have helped expel heavy-handed despots in Northern Africa, and dictators across the Arab world are shaking in their pants.
The world is increasingly becoming one culture (with great local variations) through technology, media, business etc. Understanding of and acquaintance with others’ values have resulted from increased transcultural interaction in many parts of the world. War is easier when the enemy can be dehumanized, such as through xenophobia-enabled propaganda, but it only works if people of one culture are not familiar with people from the other.”
http://www.wfs.org/content/can-we-end-war-2050-discussion-matt-ridley-and-phil-bowermaster
We have a lot of reasons to be optimistic.
There won’t be WW3.