@worriedguy Yes! It seems like that’s going to be the lynchpin. Prospectively, just as when you replace an alternator, one can get a few tens of dollars off for recycling the core from their old one. One might anticipate a full recycling of the batteries on electric cars as well. (which mostly break down from their electrodes wearing out—less than the fluids and materials no longer being able to store electricity)
Overall, even with giant tax breaks, incentive from fuel costs, incentive from local governments and better battery technology coming down the line, the biggest thing will be this: we already own combustion cars and for a while it will be a luxury to have it any other way.
I actually get to see it where I’m living—in a fairly affluent mountain town. There are a few brave souls that drive their fully electric vehicles 365 days a year but the incline of the mountains and the torque/tractionable weight required to make completely get away from combustion doesn’t seem quite feasible up here—not in this decade.
For the most part fully-electric cars are made to be light and compact. They are Neighborhood Electric Vehicles that are made to top out around 35mph. (And contrary to how we all drive ‘Speed Limit’ is the highest speed we are expected to drive on any given road.) This is the key factor in a transition. A lot of these things can be parked on a sidewalk and just as one doesn’t use a butcher-knife to open a plastic bag, just as it’s smart to have two cars anyway, just as it would be crazy to depend on current infrastructure for charging or a sudden, gung-ho abandonment of all things petroleum, who’s to say it won’t be possible to make the transition by having both a petroleum vehicle and an electric car and to use them in relation to one’s distance from work and the grocery store.
Unless, every oil-producing country explodes tomorrow and we aren’t able to muster the coal and electric power to keep good manners and food going there shouldn’t be a problem for any amount of transition time. The cheapest (non-homemade) model I’ve found comes out of China at a doable $6000 but as little more than a golf-cart. On average the new bubble cars are coming out at $15,000 plus. Still, homemade conversion kits are $2500 plus the cost of the car you wish to adapt.
State laws are going to be a big problem – so are the intellectual gaps in service, insurance, and regular charging. That was the major win with creating a Neighborhood Electric Vehicle class. Even though some of the little units out there have the machinery to hit the highway or a two-lane road, there is a pile of safety technology which is required to be on the highway—for your safety and the liability one is likely to become in the current phase of all-electric vehicles. Also, have you ever had a 40 year old dude knock on your door and ask for a drink from the spigot in the front yard? It’s going to be slightly awkward when somebody knocks on the door with an extension cord. That’s kind of the cool part though – a ‘fueling station’ is just that—an extension cord. . . and who remembers the rechargeable batteries from the 80s . . . put that in perspective of how long it takes to charge your cell-phone today.
It’s definitely possible – this generation of electric cars goes over 50 miles per charge, 120 miles with a Coda—up to 220 miles with the $$Tesla$$ roadster. It’s definitely cost-effective @ 8.5 cents per kilawatt hour—even for an eight hour charge!
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=electric-cars-cost-per-charge
http://www.smartusa.com/models/electric-drive/technology.aspx