Do you think the North East and NYC are going to really experience Hurricane Force winds and rain on Sunday?

I don’t think so. Although it can happen, it’s not likely. There’s too much distance in between for it to weaken. This happened two years ago and when it hit, it was no different that a frontal storm.

We’ll probably get high winds, lots and lots of rain, and maybe some power outages. Power lines and trees could come down, but we don’t usually need to board up stuff.

@JilltheTooth
Where are you?
I pray your right.
My son is autistic he can not comprehend abstract things.
@Blackberry
They keep saying eventually it will happen.
The studies I have read say things are changing and odds are increasing. There are going to be more Hurricanes with greater intensity do to Climate Change.
I pray it will not ever hit the North East with the impact the South has. I do not think NYC is prepared.

Maybe tropical storm force, but not hurricane. Are they saying hurricane up there? The hurricane force winds are only near the eye, not sure how far they extend out right now, but if NC gets hit badly, it will tear up the storm a little, which will reduce the winds, and the waters are cooler more north, so it won’t get stronger once over the ocean again. The rating of the storm is based on sustained winds, so there still can be stray gusts that are hurricane force.

@philosopher : I’m in SW Connecticut, in a coastal town. Long Island protects us from storm surge in the Atlantic, but there can be some build-up in Long Island Sound. My Mom has an oceanfront cottage on Fire Island, and I can count on the thumbs of one hand the number of times it’s been seriously damaged in a hurricane in my lifetime. Over half a century, BTW
Is this your first hurricane season?

@JilltheTooth
I believe that our Climate is changing and the intensity of storms is increasing.
@JLeslie
New Yorkers are less familiar than you.
I learned about this in college but I admit that was many year ago.
I hope your right.
Thank you for reminding us.

It has before and may do it again this time…… I am prepared either way

I just got a panicked email from my ex-husband who lives near the beach that he’s evacuating everyone including the cat. I told him he can stay with us and we’re only 2 stops further away from the beach on the train but aren’t prone to panic.

I am in NJ and have had the same experience as @JilltheTooth ; high winds, power outages sometimes, trees down but nothing major. I am cautiously cautious.

I’m with both @JilltheTooth and @janbb (as I am almost always). We have severe weather regularly and are always prepared for the worst.

I just filled a bathtub and am about to go to town for canned foods, extra candles and gas for car. (And some books and books on CDs from library, some AA batteries for old-fashioned but handy CD player..

My most valued possessions are a gas range, corded phone, crank radio and a miner’s lamp that leaves my hands free.

If power is off for more than four days, the local fire department has free bottled water and dry ice available.

Hey – if the power goes out, Fluther party at my house. I’ve got moussaka, eggplant parm, cheese and onion tarts and peach pies in my freezer!

@janbb do you have a cake in the frizzer toooo?

@creative1 Why yes – I think I do!

@philosopher I have not watched the weather channel, I wanted to make sure I clarify. I was asking if they are saying it will be a hurricane when it gets to the Northeast, and if they project the eye to hit the coast? I’ll try to watch the report in the next half hour and get back to you. The details are important, instead of just knowing it is a hurricane now and they expect the weather to be bad in NYC. Don’t mush it all together as one constant thing.

You, all of us on the East Coast should certainly be concerned. This storm, Irene, has the potential to be one of the worst to ever hit the east coast. A good source of accurate, up to date information is The National Hurricane Center. The problem is that hurricanes don’t file a flight plan and then follow it to the letter. It is simply impossible to predict, with any degree of certainty where, when or how strong it will be when it hits. Hurricanes can weaken or strengthen, speed up, slow down or stall, they can decide to veer one way or the other as they travel their path. The meteorologists have to work with probabilities and models and input the most current data as to the path of the storm as they get it.

The best thing to do, now I think, is to keep an eye on the storm, along with the meteorologists, as it gets closer and watch your local news and weather stations regularly to keep up with it and follow the advice of the local authorities in your area as to what you should do. And prepare, at least to have food, water and prepare for power outages. The shit could really hit the fan or be not quite that bad, Irene could decide to go more to the east, out in the ocean and not hug the coast the way it looks now. No way to be absolutely certain.

Ok, I am in front of the weather channel waiting for the update. Thought I would post some reminders.

Fill your bathtub with water, make sure the water holds, you can buy putty to plug it better. If electricity goes out and water systems are not working you can use the water to flush toilets and for bathing.

Fill your car gas tank. Pumps don’t work when the electricity is out.

Get some cash. If satelites are down stores will not take credit cards. Banks might be closed. ATM’s will run out of cash if people are advised not to be out after the storm comes through.

Fill your prescriptions, pharmacies might be closed after the storms and deliveries delayed.

Emergency workers do not go out in sustained winds 40MPH + during a storm. If you are pregnant and near your due date consider staying the night at the hospital. Barometric prsssure during the storm can trigger labor.

Have a few gallons of drinking water per person in the household.

A couple of flashlights. Battery operated radio or hand crank. (I have a hand crank radio/flashlight amd it is awesome). If you use candles always be in the room they are lit. Best to get a hurricane candle, candle down inside of glass. Do NOT use any candles during the winds.

Remember if the eye travels over your area, the backside of the eye is the most dangerous time. The front side the winds built up over time. The back side of the eye you go from perfect stillness amd clear skies to hurricane force winds. Don’t be outside during the eye. If you cheat and go outside be inside way before the threat of the backside is to come through.

The safest place is interior rooms, lowest floor. In apartments consider going into the hallways. If the winds are very strong.

Ok. I just saw some info. Definitely could be hurricane force winds in NY according to the weather report, BUT, the only track they went over was the one that was going to bulls eye NYC. So, yes, the news is hyping it up a little in my opinion for ratings, but still we should not ignore the possibility that the storm could track that way. I think once it gets to NC the tracks will change a little. Unfortunately, the hurricane is moving slowly and is large, so even if it is just a hurricane 1 or tropical storm, it will be an annoying amount of rain and wind most likely. It looks like the worst NYC would get is hurricane 2, which could be very bad for some buildings, as we know many are under repair at any given time.

I certainly would not panic as long as you are indoors during the storm, don’t sleep by the window, but the aftermath will likely be a little frustrating if it is a direct hit. Electricity out (people usually only think of their own home being out not entire blocks, sewage systems, etc., but during hurricanes basic services can be compromised).

And @JLeslie has some good ideas I didn’t think about. Definitely make sure that your car is filled up, make sure you have a supply of prescriptions, and the hand crank emergency radio/flashlight things are nice to have (I have one around here somewhere, I guess I should try to find it)

Also, if don’t have a corded landline at your house make extra sure that your cell phone is charged because even if you have a landline, portable phones won’t work if you lose power.

And, I am going to post this link again because I still that the National Hurricane Center is the best source of accurate, up to date information about the path and intensity of the storm. That’s what they do, hurricanes.

Also, just in case you are very worried I thought I would tell you what it is like even if your area gets a direct hit.

The rain bands come through first, and the experience is just like it is pictured on the radar. Usually it is just heavy rain, and then the rain stops. And then rain again, and then the rain stops. Eventually there might be less rain, or it might continue, and the winds will start building. There can be hours of sustained winds. Hours and hours. Stong gusts happen at times during the sustained winds. If you live in a house, make sure anything that can become airborn should be taken down or moved inside. Lawn chairs, loose limbs on trees. This is time to clean up the yard, before the storm starts.

Honestly, I don’t believe the eye will make landfall in NYC when I look at the map, but still too early to call.

Also, @philosopher, you’re on Staten Island, right? If you have a house and it looks like you’re going to be getting high winds you might want to secure any loose items you have outside if only so you don’t have to wander around your neighborhood for the next week looking for your trash cans and lawn furniture.

@lillycoyote It is not about hunting around for stuff in the aftermath. That stuff can slam into windows. Once the glass is broken the wind gets into the house and all hell breaks loose.

If you are within a mile of the water consider evacuating to a friends house. Are they advising any evacuations yet in the tristate area?

@lillycoyote Yes, I know that. I said “at the very least” so you don’t have to chase it around in the aftermath, I should have said, at the very most so they don’t become projectiles and go through someone’s window and then the at the very least part.

Oops! Talking to myself again. That comment was for @JLeslie. :-)

the only reason i am semi cautious living here in Manhattan is because I live on 5th floor apartment. i have been in coastal cities and on a cruise ship during hurricanes. Cat 1 to Cat 3. I worry about things and tree branches flying around and hitting our windows. Power outage I can handle.

@philopher – see hurricane guide (its adobe and can be printed out) and will tell you where your evacuation route is. http://www.nyc.gov/portal/site/nycgov/?front_door=true

@JLeslie – its a Catergory 3 as of now and should remain but lets see after it hit NC to see if it weakened or not

@philosopher – I read today that all residents of Fire Island should evacuate just in case…

@irelandg74 Probably being a little off the ground in NYC is a good thing. Flooding is probably a concern, not sure what they are saying? Haven’t been listening to any of it. Manhattan has to pump out water on a normal day from the tunnels and underground, forget about water coming in from the rivers during a hurricane surge. Luckyily 5th floor isn’t crazy high, so you shouldn’t feel any sway. I hate that.

@ALL Cat 3 would be kind of scary for a direct hit on Manhattan. Is that what they are predicting now for Manhattan? I wasn’t clear? Or, that is just what it is right now? NC should tear it up a little. When I looked at it this afternoon they were saying Sunday for NYC, which is still too many days out for a really great guess. Tomorrow will be really important. Big decisions will be made by then for evacuation. I would guess they are reluctant to evacuate such a heavily populated city. If it makes you feel any better in Cat 3 hurricanes we have very very few deaths, and many of our older buildings are not necessarily hurricane standards. The deaths are many times related to medical emergencies not able to be treated because no EMT vehicles can go out, or someone gets monoxide poisoning running a generator. Katrina was bad because of the flooding, same with islands like PR and Haiti, flooding and mudslides. I don’t want you to worry that you are in extreme grave danger. I’m not saying don’t evacuate if you are told to. I am also not saying don’t just get out of dodge if you want to, go ahead if it makes you more comfortable of course. Many times in FL people who live near the coast stay with friends more west for the storm, even if they are not under evacuation, you might want to consider it if it looks bad tomorrow.

Another Tip:

Do not walk outside right after the storm. Downed powerlines can be live and in puddles. Step in the water and you can be electricuted.

I believe this weekend is the dedication of the new Martin Luther King site in Washington DC.
If there is any justice in nature, the day will be clear and beautiful.

EDIT: Darn it, they just postponed the dedication to next month or October. It’s a shame they can’t do it on the anniversary of the speech.

@filmfann I hope so. I will say this, the weather around hurricanes is fantastic. The calm before the storm is very true. After the storm also beautiful clear skies. It is like the hurricane sucks up all the shitty weather. The problem with this storm is it is so big, and slow moving.

Just saw the news. They are currently saying Cat 1 for NY. Prepare for power outages I would say.

The current projections having it hitting southern Delaware, Fenwick Island which is the southern most coastal town, a Category 2. I don’t know if you know anything about Delaware but it’s not very big and I live in northern Delaware, which isn’t all that far from Southern Delaware. On the projection maps my area, including Philly, falls halfway between the Category 2 line and the Category 1 line. The governor has already declared a state of emergency and ordered “visitors” to evacuate the coastal areas and beach resorts. He’ll decide tomorrow on mandatory evacuation of residents. Ocean City, MD authorities have ordered a mandatory evacuation of, as far as I know both tourists and residents as of midnight.

One report said when the storm hits, when it gets here, it’s going to shove water up into every nook and cranny around the Delmarva Peninsula, into the Chesapeake Bay on the west side and into the Delaware Bay and up the Delaware River on the east side. I don’t know what the end result of that sort thing is going to be either for the bays or the people.

I don’t want a tree to fall on my house. :-(

@lillycoyote I don’t want a tree to fall on your house either. I don’t think one will. You have windstorm insurance right? In a cat 1 I would usually not even bother to put up my storm shutters (mine were a pain in the butt). Cat 2 I might think about it maybe.

Did they say how big the eye is?

@JLeslie “Windstorm insurance”? I don’t know, I’ll have to check my policy. If I don’t, well, not a whole hell of a lot I can do about it now.

I don’t know about the eye. The last report I heard was that the storm had veered slightly to the east and was going through a “reorganization” phase and was a little ragged and shaggy, not quite the solid storm she had been, but she’ll get herself back together, I have no doubt. I will have to check back to see when and if Irene is done reorganizing herself.

What ever happens I will have flooding in my house, in my kitchen and beyond. We have had the wettest August on record here and the ground, that has terrible drainage to begin with, is totally saturated. Usually my pumps can keep up with it but with a couple of the storms we’ve had this month they couldn’t. If I lose power I won’t have a chance to keep up with it. I’m going to go out tomorrow and see if I can put together some kind of battery back up system and maybe get a more powerful pump, if there are any to be had. I have a feeling the shelves of my local Home Depot and Lowe’s have been picked clear of generators, pumps and battery back ups.

Oh well. It won’t be the end of the world. The carpet has been through it many times before as have I, the flooding that is. It’s just that the pump system has been really effective and I have gotten kind of spoiled by having dry carpets and an un-flooded kitchen for the past 5 or 6 years. And thank you for not wanting a tree to fall on my house. :-)

@lillycoyote You have flood insurance right?

if she moves east you may get very little of the storm. Sometimes they just veer off, and all the preparation is for nought. If she hits the coast of NC it is going to get more ragged and disorganized probably, being a little messy right now even better.

Home Depot is trucking in massive amounts of generators, plywood, etc. Call ahead and ask if they are out of generators and when the shipments are expected.

@JLeslie LOL. Stop asking me what kind of insurance I have. It’s only making me more anxious. Whatever kind of insurance I have, I have. I can’t change it now. They’re not going to add riders to my policy 24 hours before possibly the only time in recorded history that Delaware has or might take this kind of direct hit from a hurricane. It’s not helping. :-)

OK.

Was this the Q I wrote about the trees? If the type of trees around your house have long roots and are thin they are less likely to topple. The trees with heavy dense thick wide tree tops and short roots tend to tip over,

@JLeslie Thanks, sweetie. :-) I know you’re only trying to help. I just have one that I worry about. It’s a huge maple and may very well have both shallow and deep roots. It’s about 47 years old and it’s been fine until now, just mighty big. I will keep you posted. I am not freaked out, not scared, just a little anxious about the unknown and what this storm may bring. It, the storm, is looking, right now, to be possibly, for this area, somewhere between highly unusual and totally unprecedented so you will have to just indulge my little bits of anxiety, if you don’t mind. I’m not at all concerned about myself or my neighbors and friends. I don’t think it will be that bad, life threatening, but I am a little anxious about property damage, and I know that property, unlike lives and limbs, can be replaced and repaired, still, it’s not something you want to happen.

@lillycoyote Sure sure. Totally understandable. Flipping thing is unpredictable.

From what I ‘m seeing on the news, it’s headed your way. It’s going to be bright and sunny here in Florida. Hehehehe

@Pustic2 I know, or at least hope that you Floridians don’t really wish us any harm, but… I guess you guys do really deserve a break every once in a while, don’t you?

@lillycoyote No, I wish no one no harm. I know what hurricanes can do, me and my little bird sat through Charley and two more back in ‘04. We were in the center track of Charley, and close to the same with the other two.

@lillycoyote
I have an old Oak Tree in the Backyard that the city said we could not cut down. It is very tall.
I hope we will all be safe.
Where are you?

Are any of you in the evacuation zones? I just heard they ordered evacuation in parts of NYC earlier today.

Here’s the poop on that.

@JLeslie
I am not by the Beach. I am on a hill but that does not make me feel safe.

@philosopher :( I wish I could help you feel better. I hope your electricity stays on so you can feel connected to the collective and other friends and family. The biggest fears are flooding, so up on the hill is really good. In FL I never saw flooding more than a few blocks inland, and at that category the islands were not covered completely in water or anything.

@JLeslie
I do appreciate your information.
When I was young I heard stories from family and they affected me.
My X brother in law grew up in Florida.
I was at Costco and Stop and Shop today the crowds were unbelievable. People are stocking up . People in NYC are afraid. Most have never been in a Hurricane. We get bad storms but not this bad.

In FL we stock up like mad also. Shelves are wiped out. They limit how many gallons of milk and water people can buy.

My sister just reminded me to bring in all porch furniture. If the winds hit 70 mph, they can become flying missiles.

@JLeslie
The problem is the power will probably go out and some things will spoil.

I just read this link. It may interest some of you.
http://bigthink.com/ideas/39934

@philosopher I forgot to put that on my list. Make lots of ice. You can start now. The fuller a freezer is, the colder it stays. Think of it this way, you can put your hand in a hot oven, but you cannot touch the metal rack. Fill your freezer with ice in ziplock bags, it will keep everything colder longer. Eventually everything will unfreeze, but not spoil. If you have one of those igloo things for picnics, or medical grade styrofoam for shipping, when the power goes out, within a couple of hours transfer all refrigerator foods to the smaller more compact igloo with ice. My food keeps for 3 days in the styrofoam container.

If you have electric water heaters, use the hot water sparingly. I had warm water for 4 days, but I had a large heater, and I was the only one home. Garden hoses stretched out in the sun full of water can give you warm water also for bathing.

I transfer what I’ll need to coolers before the power goes out so I don’t have to open the fridge, After put a bunch of ice in. Remember, too, that the ice is made of potable water for those of you that might lose water with your power. We don’t lose water, but it has been tainted in the past.