Social Question

ETpro's avatar

What future do you see for Iraq?

Asked by ETpro (34605points) October 22nd, 2011

My prediction is that the next election will sweep Muqtada al-Sadr to power and the Shi‘a majority will begin a full-scale repression of their Sunni and Kurdish minorities leading to a great deal of bloodshed. With Iran backing, the Shi’a will drive all opposition into hiding and Iraq will become a full-scale Iranian client state further destabilizing the region. Sooner or later, this will lead to a Arab war between the Shi‘a and Sunni states in the region as Iran attempts to expand its influence.

Was it worth nearly $1 trillion and the lives of 4,478 US troops, 550 contractors, and between 102,417 and 111,938 Iraqi civilian deaths to accomplish this?

Observing members: 0 Composing members: 0

18 Answers

njnyjobs's avatar

I don’t think any mid-ranking State Dept. official can provide an intelligent answer to your question, much less folks who are not privy to intelligence reports.

Hibernate's avatar

Iraq and Iran will end up into a war .. it’s not like they didn’t do it in the past. They showed their aggression towards the other quite often.

Gonna be sad but seems peace can’t please them both.

filmfann's avatar

I think the Iraqi people will become cranky and unhappy, due to the lack of sleep because of the constant glow of Iran.

mrrich724's avatar

When I read the NY Times article, I couldn’t help but feel like this, of course, is another political move, and that while our soldiers are coming home “for the holidays” we’re gonna end up sending back more than just “a team to militarily train Iraqi forces.”

Haven’t we been giving military training to Iraqi forces for years?

mazingerz88's avatar

@ETpro I never imagined I would say this as a response to any of your posts but after reading your details, I really, really hope you are wrong. I would rather see Bush smiling, feeling vindicated than let all that American blood be for naught.

jaytkay's avatar

Iraq will be a client-state of Iran.

Mission accomplished!

mazingerz88's avatar

@ETpro And let’s not forget the thousands of severely wounded for life veterans.

ETpro's avatar

@njnyjobs I think anyone paying attention can answer the question with reasonable accuracy. Berfore the war, it was patently obvious that Bush and his Administration staff were using outright, obvious lies to gin up the war. The so-called liberal main-stream media simply chose to ignore it, and Democrats afraid of being labeled weak on defense went along with the lies. But they were glaringly obvious to those paying attention. And what’s coming next is equally obvious.

@Hibernate That seems unlikely to me. Both countries are majority Shi’a. Iraq attacked Iran under Saddam Hussein, who was a Sunni.Sunnis represent less that 30% of the Iraqi population and have virtually no power under the current democracy.

@mrrich724 Why would we send back a second invasion force? It was never in our interest to send the first. And no matter how long we continue to hemorrhagic money to play referee, eventually the people there are going to win out and do what they want, be it sand or crazy. How many trillion do you think we should spend forestalling that? How many more American lives is it worth to make it happen down the road, not now?

@mazingerz88 I sincerely hope I am wrong too. And yes, those with missing legs, missing arms, and minds shattered by the horrors they saw may be the biggest losers of all.

@jaytkay That’s how I see the outcome. That’s how I saw it before we ever launched this misbegotten adventure. But George W. Bush did get a photo-op in a flight suit, so that certainly made it worth any cost.

Hibernate's avatar

I know it has a low chance of happening [as a major scale war] but there’s gonna be a lot of revolts on both sides and everybody’s gonna blame the other side.

ETpro's avatar

@Hibernate Yes, I can see that shaping up. Thanks for the clarification.

jrpowell's avatar

I agree that it will be messy. But I don’t really see any other option. It is time to bail from Iraq and Afghanistan.

ETpro's avatar

@johnpowell I agree with that. Ten more years of blood and treasure will do nothing to change the forces that are pushing Iraq to instability. Our extended presence would likely just increase the pressure for civil war and build hatred of America in the region. These are the things that should have been though through before this ill-advised neocon misadventure was ever launched. It’s too late now to unring a bell. But of course, the very chicken-hawks that got us into this mess will claim the unraveling is all Obama and the Democrats fault. The Party of No Personal Responsibility will go on bragging of their vast foreign policy and military prowess and the complete lack of such skills in their oppositin.

mrrich724's avatar

@ETpro I don’t think it’s worth it at all, I just don’t see them coming home . . . bringing home 200,000 troops to a place that has no jobs?

I feel like they might come home but end up being redeployed somewhere else.

After 3 tours in Iraq, my brother-in-law came home “for good,” guess where he is now after for good? Afghanistan . . . He left two weeks ago.

jaytkay's avatar

…bringing home 200,000 troops to a place that has no jobs?...

1) There are 39,000 troops in Iraq. The peak was 166,000 in 2007. link

After 3 tours in Iraq, my brother-in-law came home “for good,” guess where he is now after for good? Afghanistan

2) In 2008, presidential candidate Obama said he would send more troops to Afghanistan. link

ETpro's avatar

@mrrich724 I know how you feel. My son just returned home, in one piece and sane, from a tour in Afghanistan. I think a big part of the problem is that less than one percent of Americans have any skin in the game. Over 99% are not in the military and have no close relatives that are. They say the obligatory “Thank you for your service.” then fall in line for the next lame-brained invasino plan.

jrpowell's avatar

“bringing home 200,000 troops to a place that has no jobs?”

I thought being in the military was a job. They don’t have to be in a war zone to get paid. It is a contract that is usually four years. They can just re-enlist if they need too. The crazy ones on the street that are homeless most likely went through hell and did fucked up shit and can’t mentally do it again.

My aunt and uncle both retired from the Air Force after 18 years in the early 80’s. Every four years they just signed a new contract. Both retired around 40 years old (they are 60+ now) and get a full pension. About 5K a month and healthcare. She was a nurse and he was a Social Worker. They never saw combat.

Hibernate's avatar

@johnpowell somehow they will be sent in reserve. At least it’s what they did with our troops a while ago.

mrrich724's avatar

@johnpowell I am not schooled all too much to the military, but I think my common sense leads me to believe that we currently have military service men and women in the United States doing the work that needs to be done stateside right now. The positions you described aren’t sitting here vacant waiting to be filled by our troops overseas . . . and it also leads me to believe that 100,000+ positions such as what you described aren’t just going to be created to accommodate the troops that are coming home.

We aren’t just going to have 100,000 new military nurse, social worker, HR, accounting, etc. positions that open up, doesn’t that make sense?

Answer this question

Login

or

Join

to answer.
Your answer will be saved while you login or join.

Have a question? Ask Fluther!

What do you know more about?
or
Knowledge Networking @ Fluther