Will Iran follow N. Korea?

Great news Z! But I think Iran is going to get worse, not better.

I really hope this round of pressure on Achmedingalinglong will work – and the Ruskies and Chinese stop supporting him. Without them it’s impractical to be optimistic. But North Korea has me feeling groovy. I have always felt bad for the poor people of that country – so close yet so far – to democracy, civility, life.

It would be a grave mistake. Both countries need nukes as a deterrent against invasion.

Iran has had no change of leadership, and has no motive for change.

Iran also claims they aren’t building a nuke bomb but developing Nuclear Energy.

We can always hope.

It has been confirmed by the BBC. It would be nice if Iran did the same but I can understand why it feels threatened when it is surrounded by American bases.

@flutherother It’s funny how feeding someone accomplishes more than pointing a gun at them does, isn’t it.

This is business as usual in North Korea. Piss everyone off, militarize, then offer to back off in exchange for food aid. They know that no one will attack them unless they do something really bad (besides starving their own people), so they gain some ground, then back off a little and get aid in return. Nothing new here. They’ll start their shit again when they think there’s something to gain.

As for Iran, it’s a different situation entirely. What they want is nuclear weapons. Period. They don’t need concessions, or aid, it’s a power grab. It’s all very touchy politically, and they aren’t going to just agree to suspend the nuclear program.

I’m hoping this is a good sign. Third generation cults of personality are hard to maintain. I also wonder why anyone would invade them (North Korea) What do they have that anyone would want?

I hope so. I also hope North Korea is actually giving up its nukes. I think it’s a bit premature to say they are in light of their past behavior.

Since Kim Jong-Un has just recently become the dictator of North Korea, he is in a position where he has to assert his dominance in the chain of political power for face a military overthrow. The thing I am worried of is that this is part of a trick to prove his strength, when he reverts position and goes back to nuclear weapons the moment he receives the aid package.

Iran? Anytime soon? I highly doubt it.

I hope so. And I hope Israel will do the same.

First to answer your question, I really doubt it. Iran is going to do their own thing, and both countries have completely different agendas and strategic plans. I’ve been following the events in both countries, and I think they’re both tinderboxes.

North Korea isn’t giving up anything. They’re supposedly slowing down or ceasing (temporarily) their progress on nuclear weapons… in exchange for food from the US. They starve their own people while they spend all their money on military ambition.

What a generous offer they make in exchange for food – stopping something we’ve condemned them for doing anyway. It’s ridiculous that the US so willingly obliges. (IMHO)

Iran is a different story altogether, and remember, they’re not doing anything wrong, they’re just advancing purely harmless nuclear technologies for energy and medicine… RIGHT? Yeah, and I have a few bridges for sale too. Anyway, if you believe, like the rest of the sane world, that they’re moving towards making nukes for warfare, I am pretty sure they have no intention of stopping. After all they can just pay for grain with gold. Either Israel will execute a strike, or the sanctions will finally force them to capitulate, or the US will intervene (both of the latter options being unlikely).

I don’t see how an Israeli strike would stop the Iranian program. Neither does the American intelligence community.

It would serve to unify the now-fractured Iranian populace alongside their current theocratic overlords and support nuclear arms even more. (Mousavi’s Green Party supported nuclear enrichment even more stridently than Ahmadinejad, btw)

Terrifyingly, Netanyahu is actually deluded enough to believe that bombing Iran will somehow have the opposite effect… just like Bush and co. believed that we would be greeted as liberators in Iraq after bombing and invading them.

Not within the next 10 years. But eventually there will be a democratic revolution in Iran. At some point young academics will attempt new large scale protests in Iran.

In 2025 there won’t be a need for nuclear power plants in sunny countries. It will be much cheaper to build solar thermal power plants. So Iran will no longer have a justification for peaceful nuclear technology.