Will the GOP presidential primary go all the way to the convention without a winner?
Asked by
tedd (
14088
)
March 16th, 2012
I don’t have to update you on the current campaign for the presidency going on with the Republicans. I also don’t want to turn this into a thread arguing about whether or not they’re insane or if their ideas are better than those of the Democrats.
My question is basically this, do you think this nomination process will make it all the way to the GOP convention without a definite winner (aka, the dreaded/infamous “Brokered” convention). Should no candidate have the 1144 delegates needed, the nominee will basically be selected by the Republican establishment. This is generally frowned upon today as people see it as “smoke filled back room bargaining” that the masses are not party too. The last time any candidate secured the nomination via a brokered convention was Adlai Stevenson in 1952 (Democrat). The last Republican was Thomas Dewey in 1948. Both men lost those elections.
As of today, Mitt Romney has secured approximately 498 delegates (well beyond any opponent, Santorum is closest with 239). The nominee needs 1144 delegates to secure the nomination. If Mitt Romney won every single delegate from here on out, he would not secure the nomination until May 8th. He will almost undoubtedly not win every delegate. Romney has won 39.43% of the popular vote, so if you apply that to the remaining primaries in order—and even give Romney the advantage of automatically winning every winner-take-all state—his proportion from every state would not carry him over the 1144 mark until June 5th. This of course doesn’t take into account that Santorum and Romney will do better in some states and worse in others (the % used is just an overall national one, not a state-by-state one). Santorum may well win some of the winner-take-all states as well (in fact he leads the polls in Wisconsin).
What do you think will happen?
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17 Answers
Statistically as of today and if nothing changes then Romney will be shy 6 delegates and no other candidate will even come close so statistically it is probable there will be no candidate with the required number of delegates. I cannot fathom for a minute all candidates being able to hold on till the convention.
So IMO it is a matter of time before candidates step out of the way and their delegates will be pledged to the candidate most likely to have a chance to win over the blue dog Democrats and centrist undecideds and from all appearances Romney would be the one to attract that support from the to be pledged delegates.
I kinda hope so. It will be fun to watch.
I don’t think so, but I can hope so.
Seems unlikely. The inevitability factor will begin to play in all this. Santorum will lose enough to make it all but impossible for him to catch up and that will force even more votes into the Romney camp. The lead will widen rather than shrink. IMHO
@Jaxk Yah I’ve been waiting/wondering when the inevitability factor would kick in. It’s not impossible for Santorum or Gingrich to get the delegates they need, but it would be a major shift in how the primaries have been turning out. A miracle from God if you will. I’m wondering how it might effect things if Gingrich finally dropped out, the added support to Santorum might give him the momentum to contest it all the way to the convention…. or it could make voters think that Romney is even more inevitable and lock it up for him.
@tedd
Maybe. I’m not of the opinion that the Gingrich votes would automatically go to Santorum. It may actually create the landslide for Romney. ‘If I can’t get my guy, then I’ll just go for the inevitable winner’, type of result. I have to admit, I’m growing weary of the campaign. That may affect my opinion on this.
I think Romney has got the planning and momentum to squeak over the 1144. Santorum made too many mistakes in qualifying for delegates. Gingrich should get out of the race to help Santorum, but he is too egomaniacal to do so.
I hope it will be brokered, just to watch Palin try to sleeze her way into the nomination.
Doubtful. I think that they will all realize that their best shot at beating Obama is to unify sooner rather than later.
@filmfann It’s likely that Gingrich staying in the race is now helpful to Santorum. The two of them can deprive Romney of 1144 delegates, whereas either one alone probably can’t.
@jerv That assumes the GOP acting as if they inhabit the reality based universe. What has given you hope to believe they do?
@tedd Likely. Santorum is on a roll and the momentum he has established will secure him enough delegates that it is unlikely now that Romney’s money can buy the nomination outright. I hereby predict nobody will get to 1144 delegates. If the first round of convention voting fails to produce a clear winner, then delegates are no longer bound to vote for their nominee; and the results could get very interesting.
@ETpro I am feeling optimistic. Ask me again when I’m sober :D
@jerv When you are sober, you will realize that their lingering in a faith-based universe is a good thing.
I’m assuming Romney will win. He seems so far ahead. I don’t see how anyone can catch up.
However, if we get to the convention with no one who wraps it up, and if the votes go on and on in the convention, I am thinking that they are trying to repair McCain’s name enough to bring him back as a compromise candidate.
@wundayatta It’s like a marathon. To win, you actually have to cross the finish line. You can be far ahead and run out of gas, and you still don’t win. It is getting less and less likely that Romney can secure the needed 1144 delegates for a clear win. If he falls short of that, his committed delegates must vote for him on the first ballot, but that will be inconclusive. After that, each delegate is free to vote their heart, and that is when the wheeling and dealing starts in earnest. This could be fun to watch.
I doubt it, most of the rest of the primaries are winner take all.
@WestRiverrat I believe less than 10 of the remaining 25 primaries are winner take all.
@WestRiverrat @filmfann 26 primaries remain… 7 of them are 100% winner take all (Maryland, DC, Wisconsin, Delaware, California, New Jersey, and Utah). Three states (Indiana, New York, and Connecticut) are partially winner-take-all… in that some of their delegates will go to whoever has the most votes, and others will be divided out proportionally or by district/county/etc.
Either way, my original approximation in the OP assumed Mitt Romney would win every winner-take-all state… even those he’s not currently favored in.
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