I love the Mark Twain quote!
As far as something making sense being true, it isn’t necessarily so. I have always loved the expression that common sense is what tells you that the earth is flat. Things make sense based on how deep our knowledge is. So just because something makes sense doesn’t mean it’s correct. The world is way more complex than that. The more facts we have, the more likely what makes sense to us will be true.
For me there are degrees of truth based on how much is known. I don’t decide until I get enough facts, which I would hope, would be most people’s standard strategy. However, sometimes it seems that people are ready to believe anything that sounds plausible or has the ring of truth without looking into finding supporting evidence. I like to gather the facts and decide for myself. If the subject is complex, however, I need an expert’s opinion. Sometimes I need more than one expert’s opinion, especially if it’s a very complex subject, or a hotly debated theory or piece of information. It becomes important to figure out if the expert has good credentials and no hidden agenda or bias.
After info gathering and opinion polling I arrive at one of these states of decision:
This is almost certainly true. You can pretty much stake your life on it.
This is more than likely true but further investigations might change our understanding of it.
Might be true, but we just don’t know for sure. The jury’s still out. No need to have an opinion. Keep an open mind and try to learn more. Make a decision or base your action on your intuitive sense of who to believe or your own gut feeling.
We may never know, this subject defies scientific analysis or measurement with what are currently the best tools we have Much mystery remains.
It’s anyone’s guess..
incendiary dan what do you think defines an expert? Is it something like having an extensive body of work in a subject? Or maybe it has to do with approved training?”
Experts need to think more holistically. You have to look at things as systems and not get too reductionist. If your view is too narrow you leave out crucial information and ignore how things interact. I read recently that there’s a trend back to interdisciplinary studies. That makes a lot of sense to me. When things become more and more complex it’s important to be able to stand back and see the forest for the trees. Every expert has a piece of the puzzle and if we put all the knowledge together it is more than the sum of its parts. It’s like a jigsaw puzzle that becomes ever more clear as all the pieces are combined. So in this way, no one expert can really cover it, not always, maybe not even usually.
Another analogy that comes to mind is connecting the dots.You just need to keep in mind that it’s not foolproof! There may be some confusion as to where the dots connect and if you connect them wrongly you will get a faulty result and an inaccurate or distorted picture i.e. conclusion.