Fed Chair says economy is struggling. What happens if, as it so often does, the next election turns out to be all about the economy?

Obama wins. Most people have internalized that Republican’s don’t understand the economy and destroyed it. If it weren’t for social issues (many people really don’t like abortion, etc…) Obama would be up 20 more points.

The incumbent usually loses.

1932 Hoover gets blown away
1980 Carter loses
1992 GHWB loses

@WestRiverrat The comparison to Carter is interesting.

@Adirondackwannabe Carter had other issues too, but the economy was also a key issue.

Carter was too nice, not firm enough, he wasn’t a bad guy, and he didn’t play the games well. A lot like Obama. In addition to the economy, which both inherited.

The problem for “it’s the economy, stupid,” is that while the economy is not doing well, it is also improving or holding steady. Romney has problems in that he is unabashedly on the side of the rich people, and poor people know that. People in the middle are somewhat divided, and more favor Romney, but not enough to keep the competition from being a dead heat at the moment.

A lot of people don’t trust either candidate. A lot blame Republicans for the economy. It isn’t just the President who gets the blame. So in the end, it will come down to the battleground states and a lot of them are doing all right. Which means if the election is a referendum on the economy, they might go for Obama.

Not that I would make a prediction. All I know is that Romney would be a disaster, just as Reagan and the Bushes were disasters. We would, for sure, get into a war with Iran. The deficit would triple, or domestic programs would be eliminated and poverty would grow dramatically. War, contrary to popular belief, does not really help the economy. So the economy would tank even further and we might even end up in a recession. However, since we don’t change horses during a war, Romney would be reelected and things would get much worse.

Let’s hope that doesn’t happen. It could start with an Obama second term. Obama is a great foreign policy president. He is very smart. He has done wonders for health care. It’s amazing what he has accomplished considering what he is up against. The amount of assheadedness in this nation is beyond belief. Let’s just hope Obama manages to win the election.

If the election is about the economy, Obama goes down in flames. There’s simply nothing good happening in the economy. Fewer and fewer people are working, Disability is growing at an alarming rate, Welfare is as high as it.s been in fifty years and the number of people in poverty continues to grow. Democrats try to make it seem better by touting job creation but that is not putting anyone back to work. If the electorate votes on the economy, it’s a disaster.

That doesn’t mean that Romney is a shoe-in. Obama has high likability numbers. Romney is low on that scale. Obama will play that for all it’s worth. His campaign is primarily focused on Personal attacks to leverage his popularity. Trying to make this an election based on who you like better. And it has been somewhat successful. The more time Romney spends on defending himself the better Obama will do.

If the election is a popularity contest, Obama wins. If the election is on the economy, Obama loses. Obama may be doing a shit job, but he’s a nice guy. Hell, he can even carry a tune. And he’s hoping that’s what you’ll vote on.

“About the economy.” Hm. Let’s see.

• Obama inherited an economy in free-fall due largely to Republican policies.

• Obama’s policies succeeded in stabilizing the economy.

• Private-sector job growth has been decent under Obama. Job numbers are dragged down by public sector job cuts… which is what Republicans have been asking for.

• Republicans have succeeded in blocking virtually all infrastructure and other fiscal policies that could boost the economy further.

• Republicans held a gun to the economy’s head with the debt ceiling negotiation, rattling markets and causing a downgrade to our debt.

• Republicans have threatened the Federal Reserve against stimulating the economy with unconventional monetary policy, stating that they are more concerned about keeping inflation low than with reducing unemployment.

• Romney is running on a tax plan that will raise taxes on the poor and middle-class so that they can lower taxes for millionaires.

So yeah. I think if the election is on the economy, Obama wins easily.

@Jaxk I think your ideology is coloring your perception of reality. Of course, that is to be expected. But I think you are going a good deal further than even standard ideological misperception.

@wundayatta

I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make but the polls clearly show a distinction between the economy and Likability. On the economy, Romney beats Obama. On the debt, Romney beats Obama. On Jobs, Romney beats Obama. On likability, Obama beats Romney.

Call me partisan all you like but the numbers are pretty clear. The economy is in the toilet and I along with most Americans, recognise Obama can’t improve it. It’s a bitter pill for you to swallow but a little reality is good for the soul.

If the polls are as you say, then it goes to show you what poor judges of character most people are, and how little they understand about the economy. It should be the other way around. Obama is not a nice guy, but he is smart. Romney seems likable, but he’s a hyena in lawyer’s clothing.

The poor judgement of character and lack of understanding is what got Obama elected in the first place. It is why Obama is playing on those characteristics for this election. But I would agree that Obama is not a nice guy. But, I haven’t seen anything that would indicate he’s all that smart.

“But, I haven’t seen anything that would indicate he’s all that smart.”

Yeah, you don’t have to be smart at all to be president of the Harvard Law Review. Plus he reads his speeches off a teleprompter!

@wundayatta, I disagree with your characterizations of Romney’s and Obama’s likability, and so do most voters judging from polls. Most voters think Obama is likeable, that he’s a nice guy, while they find Romney off-putting. A lot of Romney’s interactions with voters are tone-deaf, creepy or completely insulting and un-empathetic.

And I don’t think this is actually trivial. As much as we mock people who voted for Bush because they’d like to have a beer with him, I do think it’s important that we elect someone who is empathetic and a good, genuine person.

@Qingu Well, it wouldn’t be the first time I see things differently than most people. Make no mistake, I don’t like Romney, although I think he is likeable. And conversely, I like Obama as a candidate, although I have no personal opinion about his likeability.

I don’t know where the polls are today, but last I heard, things were in a dead heat. It scares the shit out of me that there are enough people who would vote for Romney that he is even with Obama. I don’t need more reasons to despise Romney. In any case, that doesn’t help. It’s the voters who decide, and if they vote for Romney, once again, they can’t say they didn’t know what they were getting. They just want things that are bad for them. If the voters are stupid enough to shoot themselves in their collective feet, I don’t know what else I can do.

Obama is pulling way ahead in the swing states. Take heart. :)

@Qingu, proof that the American public has a brain. Now I just pray that they don’t leave it at home on election day!