Who do you feel will win the 2012 Presidential election (what does your gut tell you)

Obama.

I’m with you right now. But keep your place up North. If Romney wins I’m going to be on your doorstep the next morning with my blanket begging you for a place to sleep.

Obama. I dont’ think Americans should bother to vote.

Obama

BO

Obama. It’s not time to go back to the old, failed policies of the Republicans and the Bushes. I think a majority of people agree with that.

I hope Obama wins, but I am worried. I don’t think we should take anything for granted. Remember Gore vs Bush?
With all the voter suppression laws I wouldn’t put it past the republicans to steal this again. They have spent a lot of energy and money making sure republicans control the election process on the state and local level.

Romney, because I’m generally a political pessimist; though hope springs eternal.

Fivethirtyeight.com correctly predicted the 2008 election in every state except Indiana. They also picked almost the entire senate, and more than half of the house. They were also almost spot on with the 2010 election. They take all the legitimate polls out there and combine them with economic data and whatnot and plug it into an equation based on historical precedent and statistics to come up with their “odds” more or less.

Right now they have Obama with a 76.3% chance of winning the election.

Pretty understandable if you look at the electoral college. There are 9 or so states in play as swing states, and to win the election Obama basically has to wrap up one of the big ones and that’s about it. Romney has to pretty much sweep all of them, which seems like a near impossible task, especially given the drastically different demographics.

What @Judi said. I have not too fond memories of previous dirty politic elections.

My gut tells me that President Obama will win reelection. But as @Judi notes, being fatalistic about such an outcome is the most likely way to avert it. If voters take it for granted that Obama will win, they might not vote in sufficient numbers to bring it about. It seems to me, however, that the protracted battle we are likely to see will probably prevent people from taking Obama’s victory for granted. Thus I believe that he will win.

Obama, but it will be close. Also I don’t make $5 million a year to come up to Romney standards to have my taxes reduced.

@wonderingwhy Is the phrase “hope springs DISMAL”

Right now Obama has the favor, after the debates though it will be draw and the deciding factor will be the last jobs report that is now due Nov 3rd though I have heard there is a push in Washington to delay the jobs report for obvious reasons. That said when the heart of the issues that really matter, jobs and the economy, it will be a hard sell on Obama’s part to convince the undecideds he really needs to win this re-election. The crash and burn of losing so many Democratic seats in the House, the Senate and Governors since 2010 will have a big draining effect on winning crucial electoral votes. Much different than in 2008 with so much hope and change on his side than now.

Wow.

@Mama_Cakes Awesome.:)

I have a good feeling about Romney. The election is virtually tied at this point but Romney’s numbers are improving while Obama’s are declining. I think reality is beginning to set in and people are worried that another fours years will mean another four years of recession. I know I am. I don’t know how the DNC will work out for the Dems but the litany of personal stories about coming from humble beginnings, is growing old. I can’t help but notice that all these people that came from mothers scraping through as house cleaners or scrubbing floors and went on to send their kids to Harvard and Stanford, are going to have the desired results. If you can go from cleaning floors to a Harvard education in a single generation, is that really the country we want to get rid of? When Michelle talks of the humble beginnings and then says that Obama was turning down high paying jobs to work in community service, does it occur to anyone that college grads today would love to have the high paying offers? We certainly wouldn’t want to go back to that. We’ll see if Clinton can pull his fat from the fire but I don’t think it will happen.

My gut tells me Romney will win. My gut is also telling me that I ate something bad recently.

@Jaxk: Is what Obama came from worse for the country and the average Joe than being CEO of a corporation, a zillionaire, a wife who never had to work a day in her life? Is that more representative of someone who will understand the average citizen?

My gut tells me Obama. You don’t wanna know what my brain tells me.

I’m absolutely terrified that Romney will win. I hope to hell I’m wrong!

homer simpson

Obama.

@Jaxk I will avoid the schtick you’ve applied towards the end of your post. Suffice to say I blame Republicans for the recession and think Democrats are the solution, while Republicans would be a disaster with their corporate welfare and spending cuts.

But more to the point of my response, the election isn’t trending Romney’s way in anything I’ve seen. After conventions there’s usually a “bounce” in numbers for whomever just had the convention, and Romney has a net 1% gain after his convention, that is already dwindling. Just looking at this from a logistics stand point I dunno how anyone can feel good about Romney winning this right now. He has to sweep Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, and several of the smaller swing states… meanwhile Obama has to win Florida and he’s pretty much wrapped it up. Or Ohio and Iowa and it’s his.

I’m not saying Romney can’t win, but the odds are looking increasingly long.

Before this descends into a two-person argument, let me say I think Obama will win but I am not taking it for granted. And I am worried that the House will stay Republican and obstructionist and that there will be continued gridlock.

I’ve done some follow up on this. Using the numbers from fivethirtyeight.com, which takes basically the summation of all the polls out there and combines them. Then the site lists the probability of a candidate winning every state. Remember again, in 2008 this site, using the same concepts/formulas (they’ve been updated since) predicted 49 states and DC correctly.

First I’m adding up all of the “guaranteed” states (we’ll say anything above 90% likely to go for a candidate). When I’m done with that Obama is sitting at 237 electoral college votes, to Romney’s 191. Nine states are still in play, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and New Hampshire.

Now to narrow this down a bit more I’m going to say that any state that is 80% or more likely to go for a candidate does, and we remove New Hampshire from the board in favor of Obama, bringing his total to 241 (again vs 191 for Romney).

Now consider the paths to victory for each candidate.
-If Obama wins Florida, he wins the election.
-If he wins any pair of Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina, Obama wins the election.
-If Obama wins Ohio and any pair of the four smaller states, he wins the election.
-If Obama sweeps the smaller states he wins the election.
-If Obama wins Virginia or North Carolina and three of the smaller states, he wins the election.
(keep in mind everything listed is assuming Obama loses every other battleground state not listed)

This goes on for a while, how about Romney..
-If Romney loses Florida, he loses the election. Again, Romney must win Florida.
-Romney must win a minimum of two out of Virginia, Ohio, and North Carolina.
-If Romney wins Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina, he could still lose the election.
-If he wins the previous four and any one of the four smaller states, Romney wins the election.

Now the kicker. Of the eight battle ground states listed above, Romney has a lead in only North Carolina. And of the other seven states, Obama has a 70% or higher chance of winning six of them (Florida sits at a 62.2% Obama lean).

Right now it looks like Obama wins with 303 or 332 electoral college votes, depending on which way Florida swings.

I don’t know. I’m terrified that Romney may win, and if he does you can expect me to be camped on your doorstep with @Adirondackwannabe. I’ve never felt more strongly about an election in my life.

Romney. A lot of people have had a rough couple of years and need someone to blame and that’s BHO.

The Bush “hands off Wall Street” policies started the downslide with the fall of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Well, we know Florida and Ohio can be bought so give Romney Florida and Ohio.
That leaves Obama needing to win Virginia and NC. That narrows the odds somewhat.
So, basically, he needs to win at least three of the smaller states to come out ahead.

@rojo Actually as I pointed out above, Obama could lose Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina and still win the election (given the current battle ground states).

As I also pointed out above, he’s favored to win Ohio and Virginia by more than 70%, and Florida by a bit over 60%.

Lets look at which of the seven states listed is pursuing some sort of voter restriction law.

@rojo Plenty of states are, unfortunately. But I don’t think they’re going to have as big of an effect on this election as many are predicting.

@jca

Neither better nor worse. I’m not sure how it pertains. But if you believe that dumpster diving for old furniture makes someone more qualified to be president, by all means, vote Obama.

@Jaxk: You know you’re being snarky, as he’s done more than just dumpster diving for old furniture. I think that someone working their way up from the bottom makes them understand the needs of ordinary Americans more so than zillionaire-Romney.

Clearly Obama wins, absolute no-brainer, but i’d love to see Mitt the Twitt in the white house, that would be truly hilarious.

@augustlan How can you or anyone be actually terrified of a President when it is Congress that sets all our countries policies? That’s just silly! Be afraid of your own Governor before you become fearful of a mere figurehead. Look at Obama! He got NOTHING done! Why? Because of Congress! You are essentially blaming the messenger here. The difference with Romney is he has the chops to get divisive groups to the table to actually accomplish what needs to get done. Obama would rather be golfing.

@Jaxk , it makes you understand what it’s like to struggle. It’s easy to take business risks when you know mommy and daddy have millions to prop you up and bail you out.
It’s much harder when you are working 12 hours a day at around minimum wage to survive it’s hard to pursue other options. Being poor is not equal to being lazy but guys like Mitt don’t understand that.

Guys like Mitt will also give (or keep) tax cuts for the rich and corporations, while the little guy pays a larger percentage. Guys like Mitt will take care of their rich friends while cutting social services and programs for the poor, like public assistance, educational grants, etc. The rich can afford college, the poor won’t be able to drag themselves out of the hole, and the divide will keep getting bigger.

@tedd

The problem is more states are moving into the toss-up categories. Michigan is moving as is Nevada. The more states that move, the more possibilities there are. We’ll get a better picture of the overall race within the next few weeks once the conventions are over and the polls settle out. The conventions will be fleeting but the economy will stick with us.

Ooh I was wrong; it’s a 4 person argument! (Goes to make popcorn.)

@Judi I think Mit does know not only what it is like to struggle but is a very empatheic man who does appreciate the values and struggles of the middle class. You must have missed the op-ed on his early days where he and his wife lived in a little apartment with a door on saw horses for a desk and an ironing board for a table. I lived days like that and as an employer I know what it is like to live on less that $12,000 a year because I lived it and why I try and pay my workers above average wages. Not all 1%‘rs are unsympathetic and I think you would be genuinely surprised just how caring and supportive of others less fortunate we can be.

Didn’t Mitt have a rich daddy he could fall back on? Did Obama have a daddy he could fall back on?

@Judi

I disagree. If you are unemployed, do you seek advice from someone who is also unemployed or do you look for someone that has been successful in finding employment? Are we looking for someone to commiserate with us or someone to fix the problem. If you’re looking for a new car, do you seek advice from someone that doesn’t own one or someone that has many? If you’re looking for career advice, do you look to someone that poor or someone successful? If I’m down and out and I want someone to sympathize, tell me that the world is against me and I don’t have a chance, I’ll look to Obama to do that. But if I want to pick myself up and get back in the game, I’ll look to Romney to help me do that.

Obama wins, no question.

But if he does lose…all of you claiming a spot on Mama’s porch better make room!

(Also, thanks for the many LOL’s provided by the repubs in this thread…)

@Mama_Cakes I’ll bring food and booze. Lots and lots of both.

@Adirondackwannabe Get your ass over here. :)

@FutureMemory And, you, too!

@Jaxk Michigan and Nevada are actually more firmly leaning towards Obama now than they were in the last few months. They’ve been steadily trending towards Obama. In fact barely a month ago Florida was a slight lean to Romney, and it’s now 62% Obama.

I agree that the convention bounces will definitely be fleeting, but that should be even more worrisome to the Romney camp since they got a whole 1% bounce out of it, that didn’t even put them ahead in the national race.

@Cruiser lol, you believed that saw horse table BS? If they used a saw horse for a table in a tiny apartment, it was only of their own choosing. Mitt Romney was given millions from his father before he ever even found a job.

I was just up in Northern Michigan for the long weekend. The cabin next to us was rented by a bunch of Canadian kids (mid 20’s = kids, for me :)). Four dudes and four chicks. They were polite as hell; funny (they called their canoe the “beer barge”); and before they left, they cleaned the cabin from top to bottom. What mid 20-year olds do that? :) They also came by and thanked my girlfriend’s family for offering the kayaks even though they never used them.

They DID put back a few beers, though. We’re pretty sure that each person there had at least a half a case/day. (a 2–4), plus there were multiple (empty) bottles of liquor. They did separate it all into recycling bins and crushed their beer cans. I love Canadians. :)

I think this one can go either way, but I think Obama will pull off a victory by the skin of his teeth. Obama, like W Bush did in 2000, may win the election without winning the popular vote.

Gee whiz @tedd can’t you cut the man some slack?? He did live in a $62.00 a month basement apartment at BYU and if you cannot see the value in a man who although had stock options to his name he only sold what he needed to pay for bare necessities while they both finished up their education. THAT is a smart man who is prudent and resourceful. All been fact checked for your skeptical self.

They were not easy years. You have to understand, I was raised in a lovely neighborhood, as was Mitt, and at BYU, we moved into a $62-a-month basement apartment with a cement floor and lived there two years as students with no income… Neither one of us had a job, because Mitt had enough of an investment from stock that we could sell off a little at a time.”

@Mama_Cakes Kin I come too?

@janbb Of course!

@tedd

While I would agree that the convention bounce was disappointing, I don’t think it is indicative of any trend. Other than conventions don’t carry the same weight they used to. Which is also why I think a lot of the old predictors won’t work this time around. The electorate is changing, it’s a brave new world out there.

@jaxx, you look for someone who has been where you’ve been send found a way out. Not someone who is condescending.

(by the way, her Mom and Dad are looking to sell the cabin if anyone is interested and has half a mill).

When it comes down to it, I say that a Mormon will never be president. Most people still see it as a cult. Wait till someone asks Romney if he has his magical underwear on.

How about this? Romney is such a douchebag.

woooooooooooow

The media seems to be pushing the fact that Romney is a liar, and Obama’s missus just gave a great speech using the same issue, which the UK media just plastered all over UK tv.

So I think the puppet the media wants sheeple to vote for will win.
(or maybe the puppet the diebold voting machines vote for!)

In any case, it won’t matter, as it will be more of the same.

Barack Obama, George Dubya, Bill Clinton, George Seenya, Ronny Raygun….....
Jesus Christ….. you’ve had no one worth a wank since JFK!.......

and yes I know, UK politics is no better

The only thing that I didn’t like about Clinton was “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell”

@mama_cakes, before DADT there was a witch hunt going on. DADT was all they could get at the time. It was a stepping stone that he knew was not enough.

Clinton also signed the DOMA, although that might have been only because it was an election year and he actually did so with reluctance.

I am going to put my money on Obama. I am also putting together a food parcel and collecting blankets for @Mama_Cakes just in case I do my dosh.

@Bellatrix

What does “do my dosh” mean?

Dosh is slang for money. Do my dosh – Lose my money. :-)

@Mama_Cakes may need some help with all those visitors. I have plenty of room for some tents – all welcome here. We may have to find a new home if the Opposition get in here though (not that there is much difference between either of our major parties these days).

My money’s on The Empty Chair.

Hey @AstroChuck! Good to see you!

Like @Judi, I’m afraid that voter suppression will make an appearance. I pray that Americans decide to bring their brains when they vote. They have, recently. Let’s hope the tradition continues!

I saw a billboard today that had me so mad I couldn’t see straight and had to park the car for a while to collect myself. It had a picture of Obama and said something like “Under Obama we’re headed for the same end as Greece.” Ok, I know that’s not exactly what it said but that’s the only way I could remember it. I was SO mad. I can’t believe the US has gotten so childish that we would resort to that.

Please God, let @tedd be correct! Please God?

@Brian1946 wrong place to try to elucidate truths pertaining to politics.

@Mama_Cakes

‘In 2010, the only complete year of tax returns that the Romneys have released publicly, the couple was able to deduct only $50 of more than $77,000 in losses related to the horse business.’

Check out the bastion of Conservatives – CNN:
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2012/news/economy/1206/gallery.Obama-economy/index.html

or how about this?:
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2012/09/are_you_better.html

Obama has not been as bad as the Republicans have portrayed him.

In which country?

@Cruiser If they ever truly lived in a $62/month apartment it was of their own choosing. As Ann Romney pointed out herself, the whole time they lived without an income or with a student income Mitt Romney had millions worth of stocks he could sell at any point. The man has never known the real difficulties and fear of living paycheck to paycheck on next to no income. You don’t really understand the values just by living in a 62 dollar apartment, if you still have enough resources to go out and by a Ferrari at the drop of a hat.. in cash.

@tedd My point here is that wealthy people become wealthy because they are smart with their money. Romeny IMO demonstrated early on fiscal responsibility by protecting his investment and spending as little as he had to to preserve it.

IMO he is the type of man I want watching over my tax dollars. He knows the value and importance of money and more importantly what can be accomplished by investing and spending it wisely.

@Cruiser Romney became wealthy because his father gave him millions, paid for his education, and used his connections to open as many doors as Mittens wanted.

The only thing he didn’t do that would prove any acumen, is blow through hundreds of millions of dollars on his own personal items, which I could trust the majority of people I know would accomplish… including those nowhere near qualified to hold any public office, let alone the presidency.

The man was born with a silver spoon in his mouth, that’s no accomplishment or fiscal accomplishment.

You want someone who came from nothing and made himself. Obama is a millionaire and was born to two parents who had nothing. His father lived in abject poverty for most of his life in 3rd world nations, and his mother had to move back in with her parents because she couldn’t afford to pay the bills. From that Obama clawed his own way into ivy league schools and to the top of his classes, and clawed out his own millions rather than have them handed to him by his father.

THAT sounds like the type of guy I want in charge of my economy and country, not some jackass who feels entitled to the presidency because he was born into capitalist royalty.

For christs sake, Mittens didn’t even know what a donut was. That’s how removed from reality he is.

@tedd and @Cruiser: Not only could have sold his stocks if he needed cash, he most definitely got a bunch of money on a regular basis from dividends, paid out quarterly. So it’s somewhat deceiving of them to make him out to be close to poverty, living in a hovel, with a low salary, when he obviously had other sources of income. Plus the rich daddy comes in handy for a loan, down payment help, etc.

I find it funny how some Republicans poked fun at the women of the convention (I’ve read a few doozies on FB), but failed to say anything about Bill Clinton’s speech.

The only thing that can pull out of their asses is that maybe he got a blow job prior. ha!

Bill’s the man!

@Mama_Cakes I’ve upgraded the ride to a u-haul and I’m bringing a brewery along with the food and booze.

If I go camping on Venice beach does that make me a poverty expert?
Just because the Romney’s choose to go slumming doesn’t mean they can empathize with the struggles of those living pay check to pay check.

@Mama_Cakes He probably did get a blowjob prior… because he’s just that badass.

Too bad we have term limits, I would elect him so fast.

I also like that Bill Clinton reminded people how the republicans did nothing but try to block everything and that republican trickle down economic policies have been tried a bizzilion times and do not work.

I like how in the entire Republican Convention, George Dubya was not mentioned one time. Not one.

I like Clinton’s delineation of the philosophical differences between the parties. Democrats understand cooperation and shared sacrifice. Republicans believe people should do what they do on their own. Sink or swim. Certainly no help from others in an organized way (i.e., government).

@jca Jeb brought him up but didnt mention him by name which I found hilarious. He said something along the lines of “my brother, I love my brother” and then moved on lol

I see the Republican/Conservative belief in self-sufficiency. We can’t keep giving people stuff for free. “Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day, teach a man to fish and he will eat for a lifetime.” The trick is to get everyone self-sufficient. That takes help and motivation. We should all (Liberals and Conservatives) look into the “teaching” part.

I took Federal and Calif grants for college, and my family was on food stamps for a while. Now I pay that much in taxes every year. So far, they have gotten back 20:1 relative to what they gave me.

@RocketGuy: That’s nice in theory to have everyone self sufficient, but there will always be people who, due to circumstances, will need help. Sometimes circumstances are beyond their control, sometimes within what they can control, or a combination.

@wundayatta Studies have shown that Republicans are actually pretty generous when donating to charities, so I’d argue that they also understand cooperation, sacrifice, and helping others in an organized way. The disagreement is about what the government’s role is.

Obama scares the crap out of me & I’m not even American

How so?

@Mama_Cakes I also hired a band. Nickelback. Just for you. They’re in the u-haul now.

@Adirondackwannabe that’s not nice.

No Nickelback, please.

@tacres…. Ghost of Osama?

A bit wonkish, but an interesting read.

@Mama_Cakes, thank you for having this question. I am surrounded by Republicans, and every once in a while I need a reality check.