Characteristically, Apple’s share price sees a minimal increase in the week preceding and tailing a Jobs keynote. The increase is around 4 to 5% on the existing share price. So; based on history, it could potentially be a fairly safe investment.
However, with the degree of media speculation pointing towards an iPhone being released at the keynote, I wouldn’t be surprised if Apple’s share price fell $20 to 30 if the product wasn’t released, against hindsight. This scenario forces you into either making a loss or making a longer term investment.
So, for the purposes of this, let’s say an iPhone is definitely going to be released.
Firstly, if you’re looking for the huge increase in share price that took place in Apr-June ‘07, it’s not going to happen. The industry was psyched up over the fact that Apple were choosing to make a phone, not because they were revising a phone they already make.
In addition, the market climate is all over the place, and the type of people who would generally push a lot of money into Apple’s pockets are claiming to be uncertain that they will be able to meet their sales targets. Unfortunately for you, the guys who pump $100m into Apple make a bigger difference to the share price than your confidently invested $5000.
However, although the share price probably isn’t going to skyrocket, we will probably see a healthy increase. Also, since you’re willing to make a longer term investment, if Apple don’t announce a product revision at the keynote it’s not the end of the world.
With any luck, Apple release a phone and the share price will rise to something like 220/share, and you will make just over $1000 on your $5000 investment. Worst case scenario, you leave your investment for longer. I don’t see any reason for you not to invest.