Well, things here, in Northern Delaware at least, went better than expected and I am very grateful for that. Downstate, the coast and the bays though, they took a pretty serious pounding. A fair amount of damage.
I had a good sized tree limb come down in my backyard but that was the worst of it here. And I think that was a combination of the limb probably being ready to go and the wind working it back and forth all day, like a loose tooth, until it finally came down.
I don’t know about my property downstate. I am worried about that. It is 3 and ½ miles inland so I don’t think flooding will be too much of a problem but I am worried about downed trees.
My very best wishes to those of you on the Jersey Shore, NYC, etc, who saw the worst of it.
I am a big fan of the “better safe than sorry” approach. These storms can be very difficult. Though the science and technology, the data, the computer models get better and better, weather prediction is still a matter of probability. I think it puts weather experts and authorities in a very difficult position.
Since there is no way to predict, with any degree of certainty what may happen, where and when, these folks are left with only two options: to overestimate the risk or underestimate the risk. They underestimate the risk and people die unnecessarily and property damage and damage to local economies occurs, unnecessarily; they overestimate the risks and order evacuations that turn out not to have been necessary, the have disrupted peoples’ lives, business and also damaged local economies.
So, for me, since there is no way to predict how a storm will actually play out, with any certainty, no way to predict who will take a bad hit and who will luck out, like my area did, I am in favor of erring on the side of caution.
It’s not like it’s a complete crapshoot, it’s just that the prediction models are about probabilities, not certainties. They can only tell you what is likely to happen, not what actually will happen.