If a war with North Korea became inevitable, how bad would it be?

It would be a one sided clobbering. Like the Soviets squashed the Germans, like the Germans steamrolled the Polish, like the Americans swept across Iraq.
It would be quite cynical to even call it a war.

I think realistically that if N Korea really wanted a war in a situation as you described it would be suicidal for them. Look here to judge the effectiveness of their arsenal. Retaliation from the US and China would be swift and overwhelming.

It would be an ugly conflict. Not to be desired at all.

Perhaps I should have phrased the question as: “If a war with a suicidal North Korea became inevitable, how much damage could North Korea do to the region before being annihilated?”

It would be like a hated bully starting a fight with the popular kid in school.
All his mates would jump in an give the bully a good kickin’.

We’ve been at a formal state of war with North Korea since the original conflict as the war officially has never ended. There was just a truce signed at the 38th parallel with a no man’s zone in the middle.

@Rarebear True! I think I heard that first on QI.

War between our the two countries has not officially ended. North Korea poses an big problem for the United States, as one of North Korea’s better friends is China. China holds the vast majority of the United States debt. North Korea has a history of using chemical weapons against its own people. The arsenal can still reach U.S. land.

@ragingloli The Germans were not defeated, they lost the war. In the case of Russia, the weather defeated the Germans, and the Russians were there when the Germans gave up.

China is a super power now. They would join against the U.S. and tell their citizens it’s in the name of communism.

Their holding of the U.S. debt is a bigger problem, otherwise the U.S. would be more willing to be more vocal. Seeing as North Korea threatens South Korea, and Japan, whilst China threatens Taiwan and neighboring countries.

The ground fighting could be pretty brutal. There’s no room for manuvering, which the US excels at. It would be a knockdown dragged out fight in the western part of the country.That can get costly even if you kick the other guys butt. That’s not even considering the nukes.

North Korea has supposedly threatened an unprovoked nuclear strike against the U.S. It is clear they would rather let their own citizens starve to death in order to build weapons, this is a valid threat. However, most evidence suggests they are not yet capable of doing it.

If they do, we could possibly have a giant hole somewhere, but they would be blasted out of existence.

China is just as dependent on the west to buy the crap they make as the west is on china where all the western corporations enjoy quasi slave labour conditions.
I highly doubt they will enter a war against the west just to support a minor puppet state. I fully expect them to cut NK loose if the west decides to attack it.

@JacobSDN I know it’s a commonly repeated urban legend that “China holds the vast majority of US debt” but it is, after all, an urban legend. Like most urban legends, it’s light years away from factual. Actually, US individuals and institutions hold 42.2% of all US National Debt. That’s 60.1% in US hands. The next largest US debt holders are friendly nations such as The Social Security Administration holds another 17.9%. The US Civil Service Retirement Fund holds 6%. The US Military Retirement Fund holds another 2.1%. That’s 68.2% in US hands. Past that, Japan, The UK, Germany and Brazil all hold sizable amounts. China and Hong Kong together hold just 7.5%. Hardly a vast majority.

We are China Inc’s biggest consumer. We need each other. If the North Koreans did something as stupid as launching a first strike on the South or on the USA, China would either privately signal us to have at them, or actively join us. A nuclear strike from the North Koreans would be Glass Parking Lot day for the DPRK.

How bad would it be?

It depends on where you live.

For the US, the casualties would be tiny compared to that of South Korea. Seoul would be pummeled by conventional artillery – it’s only 55KM from the border. It would be very bad for Korean civilians. I’d expect there would be more Japanese casualties than American too, for similar reasons.

You remember those B-52’s we flew over their country a couple times the other day? Yeah if we were at war they would’ve been dropping bombs and this question wouldn’t have even surfaced because the war would already be over.

@ETpro China holds over 1.2 trillion debt dollars. Whilst many might not consider that much, when you quantify it as the effect it would have on U.S. everyday life, it’s quite a problem.

China is not our friend. They work with North Korea on a regular basis. Whilst yes Its in China’s best interest to have world peace, they would not be too upset to see the United States lowered. China invest resources in anti-american practices in Africa. The hacker issue that is just coming out now, has been happening for a long time. Worst is there are breaches in public security that are not being talked about. I had to cancel because of the same, and have had the bank offer money to keep quiet about it.

We all forget Russia because they are quiet, but Russia is a heap of problems waiting to unfold.

@JacobSDN Parse it any way you wish, 7.5% of the US National Debt is simply NOT the “vast majority” of that debt. And I stand by the mitigation factors that would lead China to side with us and not the DPRK. Which nation is more in their financial and strategic interests?

@ETpro to answer your question, the UK. The UK gets charged more, and is incapable of defending themselves. If the U.S. were as indispensable as you claim to China, they would reconsider before hacking U.S. essential systems or sending tainted products. They would also continue to use U.S. dollars instead of switching to the euro, then more recently a regional currency.

@JacobSDN I’m going to call BS on that logic. You claim China is vital to us, right. Do you seriously think our CIA isn’t hacking them?

China does not only hold a financial grip on the U.S. they hold a monopoly on minerals needed to make everything from Catalytic Converters to Computer chips. The tech industry has been scared of problems with China for this same reason. The CIA has not been doing a great job for a long time. Experts around the world are surprised at how behind the times the CIA is. The worst part about it is that they are cocky. When is the last time the CIA stopped any hacker group in “their jurisdiction”? Have you not been paying attention, the first lady’s financial information along with the director of the FBI, CIA, and Department of Defense were all put online. Updated daily.

@JacobSDN Wow, you keep spinning from one claim to another. We started off with China holding almost all of America’s National Debt. When I documented that they hold just 7.5% of it and that the US holds the vast majority, you ricocheted off to a completely different claim. Without acknowledging that the debt claim was wrong, you moved on to Chinese hacking. When I refuted the one-sidedness of that (how do you know what the CIA is doing, watching Fox “News” or reading the New York Times?), we’re off to europium and neodymium, etc. I tire of slaying your scary windmills, but just in case anyone else is still following this thread, I’ll kill this one as well.

No, China doesn’t have 97% of the world’s rare earth elements. They are pretty evenly distributed around the Earth. China, being a Communist controlled economy, prices them artificially low, and thus they have 97% of the market share of rare earths. But they were thought to have about 30% of the world’s supply till the Japanese discovered 80 to 100 billion metric tonnes off their coast.

Unless you can stick to at least one of the three separate issues you’ve already raised, my work is done here. Rave on about whatever “China’s causing the sky to fall” theory you want to raise next.

I just read this article that discussed it. Sounds like there could easily be millions killed, especially if the north used unconventional weapons when it shelled Seoul (chemical/biological). Also it sounds like the north could very well push through into the south temporarily, and would be difficult to kill in the urban environment with so many south Korean citizens in close proximity. Scary.