Throwing this out and then going to the movies: Is North Korea a real threat?

Yes, I think so. I don’t think we have the intelligence information or cultural understanding of them and how they think. It is quite likely we’ll (or the South Koreans) will make a wrong move.

No worries, it’s all rhetoric, and used as a pressure method to obtain food aid (at least that is how my newspaper put it, and I tend to believe them).
Edit: they know that, eventhough they can attack Seoul, they will be bombed back into he dark ages (or before the dark ages) if they make one stupid move.

Who doesn’t like Korean Barbecue?

Kim is an idiot, and we won’t be drawn in unless he starts firing rockets, at which point we will rain hell fire on his ass. He has to know he can’t win.

If they can actually manage to aim a nuclear missile, I imagine they’re a threat to wherever it should happen to land. But they would shortly thereafter be bombed into oblivion, so not a terribly long-term threat. Since they are an insane nation, it’s not really possible for anyone to guide their actions, so it’s pointless to worry about it. All that anyone can reasonably do is react after a strike, if it ever happens.

What could your friend’s worry do to help the situation? She may as well go about her business as if they don’t exist.

Any time one country threatens another with nuclear war, if only as a gamesmanship ploy, is dangerous and potentially disasterous. Miscalculation on one side or the other is the wild card that scares hell out of me.

Is it a foregone conclusion that the U.S. will defend South Korea in case North Korea attacks?

@bookish1 I think it’s a foregone conclusion that the U.S. is looking for an excuse to replace the North Korean leadership.

@glacial : Replace in what sense?

Hard to say is what most analysts will tell you. Certainly they have at least mid-range missles that could in theory reach Japan, and by extension, the US base at Okinawa for example. They do have a large detachment of artillery units burrowed on the border, aimed at Seoul, and they have one of the world’s biggest armies at their disposal, with some decent spec-ops units to boot.

The US can defend against any missle strike the DPRK can throw at Alaska (if their launch capabilities really are that advanced), the problem is the NK army can still inflict massive damage on ROK cities, Seoul being the main target. If the North attacks, the casualties will quickly jump into the milions. Worst case scenario they use nukes, in which case the US will retaliate with nuclear strikes of its own… It will be a huge mess if it comes to that.

As for whether they have the stones to actually pull it off… again nobody knows. There are many factors to consider here. DPRK’s new leader may be just showing off for the military, painting himself as his granddad’s successor (he literally has the same haircut and gets photographed in the same poses as Kim Il Sung), he may be merely a puppet of the military, he may also just be trying to knock back ROK and US poiticians back to the negotiating table.

They may not actually want an all out conflict, but if this continues they might as well paint themselves (and the US as ROK’s official ally) into a corner. Personally I think this is all scare tactics to solidify Kim Jong-un’s position, and trying to get a better negotiating position with the US and ROK. This happens every once in a while, the level of threats presented this time though is a bit unsettling.

I think the new Kim may be too inexperienced and might at some point force ROK/US’s hand i.e. a preemptive strike at their nuclear silos, artillery posts etc.

@bookish1 yes. If the US wants to keep intact its Asia policy, it absolutely cannot abandon ROK in case of a DPRK invasion. Otherwise it would lose all credibility in the region.

Another factor to consider is China. The “wildcard,” if you will, in this potential conflict.

@glacial a “legal war” could bolster the US economy, that may be true, though this one could easily turn into a doomsday scenario. I am not really sure the US is really all that happy to be entering a nuclear conflict. No matter what the capabilities of both sides are, this will get messy, very fast, the casualties would be in the millions before the first week of the conflict were over.

They are a threat in the same sense that an office gossip is a threat, in that they could stir things up and rock the boat. However they don’t have the military might to do much harm. They have been caught out using photoshop to make their army look bigger.

Have they not learned anything from Iraq? Don’t make the USA think you have weapons when you really don’t. They may as well start claiming that they have lots of oil too while they are at it.

@poisonedantidote “Have they not learned anything from Iraq? Don’t make the USA think you have weapons when you really don’t. ”

Whoa. Iraq did not do that. The Bush administration lied about believing that Iraq had those weapons.

@fremen_warrior I agree that the US would not start anything in North Korea. But if North Korea struck first, they would be happy to take the opportunity to change the way that country is governed, whether that means taking a leading role, or helping South Korea, China or someone else insert a new government.

@glacial True, however they could have allowed an inspection, instead they went along with letting the US think they had something to hide.

What @poisonedantidote says may well be true, but it’s still a dangerous situation for many reasons, not least being the unrest it’s creating in the world, which is none to stable as it is. Plus, most of us (m,yself included) know little to nothing about North Korean culture and politics, only what we think we know based upon often biased media sources which themselves no too little to report objectively. There’s also the language problem—what if someone in our government makes a statement that is meant to convey one message but actually conveys another… and vice versa. I’m not doom-saying here, but I do think anyone who shrugs off the multiple dangers this situation presents is misinformed at the least.

They are a threat to themselves.
Which movie are you going to see?

GQ. GA’s all around,

There will be a war over this, I’m just saying they will lose. It is part of the plan to extend control. Plus, government still needs another excuse why the economy can’t get better yet, so they can keep stripping the people of wealth with the aim of controlling us.

The USA will invade, and all the usual suspects will join in.

USA will take over NK, the usual suspects will help them out, then they will all claim that the economy got worse, while they stockpile weapons, make deals, and angle towards their next move.

This will continue until the time is right, then the UK and all the other allies will officially join the USA as the new sickly named “united countries of democracy” or something equally bad. Until there is nothing left but 2 big countries in the world. Then the final push will come, and we will all blow each other up, and our species will go extinct. That, or some variation.

I doubt China is going to allow the US to occupy the north. Ain’t gonna happen.

@poisonedantidote I laughed at the oil comment ;-) If you think about it though, any good poker player knows a decent bluff can be just as good as a decent hand (and DPRK’s “poker face” is really good).

@glacial I will give you that. Remember though that China (despite some of the NK’s decisions lately been bugging the hell out of them) really needs the NK to stay the way it is. It’s a FRIENDLY militarised buffer on its most often invaded border, and it distracts the US from focusing solely on Taiwan. China will probably do what it did in the last korean war – protect the integrity of NK’s borders, but it will NOT support an invasion of ROK, not by a long shot. China is a global player now and has too much at stake to stick to DPRK at all costs.

@glacial My friend is not worried personally for his sake but I think we are both worried about the US being drawn into another messy (at best) conflict. And as for its boosting the economy, while that is often the case, I think the last two wars – as yet unpaid for – are part of what is dragging the economy down now.

But I am always against armed conflict, yet cannot see how the US could avoid involvement if North Korea is an aggressor.

Yes.
Because the US is scared to do much about it.
Because the US is broke and can’t do anything about it.
So, NK has little to worry about (except their patron, China), therefore thy are dangerous.

They have 10000 artillery pieces near the border and 5000 chemical weapons ready to go. Yeah we’d eventually kick their ass but at what price?

It’s even better. I rechecked the AP article and it’s 5000 tons of chemical weapons.

@Pachyderm_in_The_Room Well said, on both occasions.

The biggest threat from North Korea is NK misjudging the reaction from South Korea and the US. Biggest threat from SK and the US is not taking the threats of NK seriously.

Over the past several administrations, NK has gotten used to getting a big appeasement check when they beat on the war drums. North Korea is hoping for more of the same.

The political climate in the US does not lend itself to a big payoff right now. I am not saying they won’t get one, unless they push too hard too fast and the administration can’t find a way to hide the money so the public doesn’t get upset.

The North Koreans have painted themselves into a corner. They can’t carry out their threats, because they would pay severely for it. They are going to look foolish for their empty saber rattling. At one time they could have extracted a generous aid package from the U.S. in exchange for giving up their nuclear weapon program. The best that they can expect now is to have the sanctions lifted, and it is looking as if the sanctions are proving to be effective.

We in Australia and South Africa are wondering about this too. How can the US afford yet another war? that’s what we want to know?

We have been bombing Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, Syria, Libya, and god knows who else.
How many countries is North Korea bombing?
Who is the real threat?

People love to talk about the propaganda that NK is subject to, while completely ignoring the fact that maybe, just maybe, we are subject to propaganda as well.

We fly bombers over disputed land/water and force sanctions on country after country. Is sanctions not an act of war?
How would we feel if china flew some planes over the Caribbean? Would we not feel threatened?

We really need to start being empathetic towards other countries. We love to say we are being threatened without looking at the effects our policy has on other countries.
As Nazi Hermann Goering said, ”“Of course the people don’t want war. But after all, it’s the leaders of the country who determine the policy, and it’s always a simple matter to drag the people along whether it’s a democracy, a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism, and exposing the country to greater danger.”

Apparently John Kerry thinks they are: http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/nkorea-kerry-nuclear-state/2013/04/02/id/497518?s=al&promo_code=13021-1

Last I heard they were moving missiles to the coast, Japan, Hawaii and Guam being possible targets. Most doubt they have the ability to hit the mainland of the USA. The guy is like a little kid with a big bad toy though and he is drunk with his own importance, power and ego. That is dangerous. You cannot make nice with a lunatic. He is like a mass killer but with a slightly more dangerous weapon than an automatic rifle. But I guess we can wait until he kills a bunch of people then listen to the make nicers complain about our lack of action. USA is always in a no win situation. An aussie guy gave me hell the other day because the USA waited so long to get into WWII. But you know had the situation been reversed he probably would have complained about the war mongering.

My two cents worth….

All bluster.

Not worth the time to worry about.

They have isolated themselves so much from the real world they have no idea really how to act. That little fuck is trying to make a name for himself in front of those old generals who deep down inside believe he’s a little douche- nozzle with zero experience. It’s all the fault of the US govt for sucking their collective dick all these years and given them the impression they can do this until we suck them off again. I hope they start some shit because that little shithole regime needs to be spanked hard. For their own safety ‘cause if they try the nuke BS it will be the end. Millions will die because of that arrogant twerp. His place in history.

EDIT; When the bombs start falling we can hope that freak Dennis Rodman ends up underneath a crumpled building alongside of his awesome new friend. Whats not to like there?