As far as the Syria situation goes, I think wiser minds at the NSC and State Department personnel got the president’s ear after the cruise missile threats of a week ago. I think it is apparent that the most opportune time for military intervention is long over. The time to do this would have been the first few months of instability, when the moderates still had a say in the outcome of the revolution. Since then, the moderate faction, the business and middle class, has been neutralized, liquidated, or put themselves in self-exile and are represented by the weak, Istanbul-based Syrian National Council (Think de Gaulle’s forces isolated and ignored during his exile to Britain in WWII, But without weapons or military organization).
The war is now between the brutal Assad regime and the remaining five extremist factions—all six groups being undesirable. What is left, among others, is a large faction of extremist Sunnis who would like to eliminate all the non-islamic peoples of Syria including the Coptic Christians, the Jews, and especially all other Islamic “heretics,” including the Alawites, (who represent 12% of Syria’s population), and who have appealed to Assad for protection. There is the Free Syrian Army, which consist of several autonomous units consisting of anywhere between 15 guerillas to battalions of 1,000 fighters each, guided by the different factions of the Muslim Brotherhood, an umbrella group of Islamic extremists. There are al-Quaida units, imports from Saudi Arabia and Qatar led by Ayman al-Zawahiri. Within these groups are seething ethnic and religious rivalries, all purists who believe their way of honoring their gods are the only righteous way, or their ethnic group are the chosen ones and they will commit genocide to prove it. None of these, including the Assad regime, are consistent with the global status quo—and certainly not conducive to political economic relations with the west.
So, what to do? I believe the US and its allies will do what they have done before in these situations. And I believe it is the wisest course considering the choices in Syria. When the anti-Assad factions begin to weaken, support them. When they become to strong, and appear to be winning, support Assad. Do this until the moderates in Istanbul can be strengthened into a viable government and then install them when all the combatants are sufficiently vanquished. It is cynical, and there are innocent victims. I see no other alternatives.
World financial collapse? You got me on that one.