Social Question

livelaughlove21's avatar

What's your probability of divorce?

Asked by livelaughlove21 (15724points) November 20th, 2013 from iPhone

This website claims to be able to give you the probability that your marriage won’t last with 87% accuracy.

Married jellies: What’s your number? Do you buy it?

Divorced jellies: Enter information about you and your ex. Did the calculator get it right?

All jellies: Any thoughts about this tool, aside from the obvious, “it depends on the couple” argument? What are some flaws you can spot in their methods?

I’ll post my results below.

Observing members: 0 Composing members: 0

28 Answers

livelaughlove21's avatar

I did this normally at first, and got a score of 46: High Probability of Divorce.

I noticed that it only really asked questions about me and not my husband, so I put in his information and got a 32: Moderate Risk of Divorce.

Not good news either way, but I found it strange that I’m more likely to get a divorce than he is. Not sure how that would work…

Coloma's avatar

Waste of time. ALL marriages have better than a 50% chance of divorce.
The younger you marry the better and the reality that people change and grow at different rates, Toss in all the other variables like alcohol and drug issues, poor coping, personality factors, strategies for stress,...well…the odds are very poor, very.

livelaughlove21's avatar

@Coloma This is in Social with a “just for fun” tag. Feel free not to play along, but this isn’t meant to be taken all that seriously.

By the way, the 50% divorce rate is bullshit. In recent studies (as in 90s and 2000s), it’s more like ⅓ are ending in divorce.

ibstubro's avatar

Did you happen to notice the 13% margin of error? So a borderline would be 36 to 64% margin?

Nice odds!

Coloma's avatar

@livelaughlove the mere fact your asking this Q. merits a serious response, social or otherwsie. Maybe the stats show differently, but…fuck the stats, reality rules, and reality dictates that MOST marriages will end in divorce, if not legally, emotionally, no difference.
I have NEVER known a marriage that was worthy of admiration in my life.

Most so called “marriages” end up being all about comfort, denial, fear of change, inertia, the status quo. In 40 years I have yet to see a truly loving and forward progressing involvement.

Goes to show how incredibly rare it is, if not complete fantasy. haha

glacial's avatar

@livelaughlove21 “I found it strange that I’m more likely to get a divorce than he is.”

Excellent point.

I am proud to say that I am assured of a 0% chance of divorce! That’s right, I’m not married. :)

livelaughlove21's avatar

@Coloma Ah, a cynic. Fair enough.

Adirondackwannabe's avatar

@Coloma Can I say true love is possible? Rare, but not impossible.

Coloma's avatar

@Adirondackwannabe Absolutely, but rare, really rare. Most people never do any personal growth work and without awareness one is doomed to repeating the past over and over again.. This is the vast majority of humanity, sadly.

Coloma's avatar

@livelaughlove21 Nope, a realist who is educated in relationship fantasy. lol

Seek's avatar

81 percent.

Low income, history of depression on both sides, divorced parents, non-religious, significant age difference… I’m not at all surprised at the result.

Fortunately, the real world can’t be broken down into 20 questions.

Seek's avatar

OK, just for the shiggles, I tried my best to get the lowest score possible.

Two WASP-y 30 year olds, who go to church regularly but aren’t fanatical, never married previously, no kids before marriage, weren’t knocked up at the wedding, no mental illness, both have graduate degrees and neither have ever ever touched alcohol (the horror!) ...

-60% chance. Of course, with the 13% margin of error shows a -47% chance of divorce. So they’re married and a half, forever. Minimum.

Methinks the calculations are a touch off.

glacial's avatar

This might explain it. It seems that divorceprobability.com was created by two guys: Alastair Horsburgh and Gareth Butler. They are the directors of this UK insurance company which… you guessed it… touts itself as the first company to offer insurance against divorce. The survey figures prominently on the main page. The higher people’s scores are, the better for business.

Haleth's avatar

@glacial This is why I love Fluther. I can’t think of any other site where someone would have bothered to ask those questions or dig up that information.

Coloma's avatar

Hahaha…classic. I think somebody ought to conduct a survey about the odds of anyone named Gareth or Alastair EVER getting married.
If your name begins within the first 10 letters of the alphabet you’re probability of divorce skyrockets 800%. lol

glacial's avatar

@Haleth I was just thinking that I find the hours between midnight and two my most productive. I guess this is what happens when I log onto Fluther during that period. :P

Haleth's avatar

@Coloma My name begins with an A. :’(

anniereborn's avatar

hahaha. I got 157%
my husband got 50%

That must be why I already have one divorce :/

JLeslie's avatar

I can’t take the quiz right now, because I don’t have flash on my ipad. A while back I saw an interview with a psychologist who was conducting studies on couples over time, and they were really good after a while at predicting which couples would divorce. The overwhelming finding was that couples who regularly evaluate each others goals and support working towards those goals do the best. It makes sense to me. It is really easy over time to lose yourself, @Coloma kind of hit on this in a way. Then you wake up one day and think WTF?! I’m miserable, I don’t feel free, I am stressed all the time trying to accomodate someone else. The goals can be anything, moving to a new town, saving money, more time to meditate, buying a boat, it doesn’t matter. If life feels like it would be bette, and honestly what I see among many of my friends is when life is going to be easier, without their spouse, they leave.

ucme's avatar

If we did divorce there’s a 93.89% chance that i’d be humping another women within, ooh…24hrs or so. Nowt like an old fashioned pity fuck, sex therapy without the bill.

tedibear's avatar

I took it with my information and am 80% likely to get divorced. I did it with my husband’s information and he is -3% likely. There are very few differences in our answers except age and that I was married once before.

thorninmud's avatar

I got -67%. Sorry ladies.

ccrow's avatar

I got 13%. Plus an email for confirmation of a subscription… to what? The quiz??

anniereborn's avatar

Funny, when I go back to when I was just married the first time, my score is 1. ONE! HAH!

hearkat's avatar

@Coloma – Phew! My name begins with the 11th letter of the alphabet!

Harper1234's avatar

Right about now!

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