I think that cyberpunk has a plausible path. There are things the Shadowrun RPG predicted in 1990 that came to pass, and other common tropes that were thought to be mere speculative fiction are now reality, so it may be closer to the truth than one would think.
In SR, the Matrix is everywhere. Well, Matrix 2.0, as Matrix 1.x was effectively destroyed (in part) by terrorist action, so Matrix 2.0 is a wireless mesh network (think “peer to peer”) with no centralized infrastructure that could cripple the entire grid if one small part were destroyed.
We are somewhat there already as we have the wireless part down, but we still use wires and optic cables for many things (instead of just those high-security things that you wouldn’t trust to be broadcast via wifi), and we still have cell towers that could be destroyed, and central servers for ISPs. I see that as becoming less commonplace in favor of a more reliable, more robust network that cannot be taken down the way landline-lovers say cellphones can be.
The average person in SR has a commlink. In many ways, it’s comparable to a 2014 smartphone; it’s a phone, game system, music player, computer, camera, and such. But it also has AR (Augmented Reality) capabilities like Google Glass; almost everybody has their commlink hooked to glasses, contacts lenses, retinal Image Links, or cyber-eyes in order to see AROs (Augmented Reality Objects) overlayed on their meatworld view. You look at a storefront and see nothing special, but through AR, you see that they’re having a sale on your favorite snackfood… and are alerted to the fact that Lone Star is responding to mugging 12 blocks away from your current location.
But in addition to being “Google Glass on steroids”, it’s also your wallet. So you go to the store, grab yourself a beer, and walk out the door. No problem; the RFID tag in the beer bottle tells the store computer that their inventory is smaller than it used to be, looks up the price, reads your identity from your commlink, contacts your bank, and deducts the appropriate amount from your bank account without you having to put up with some smartass working the register.
And computer skills won’t even be really necessary, nor will literacy. Everything is icons, pictures, videos, and sounds, so why deal with squiggly lines to convey information? Literacy rates will fall as a result of just not needing it, much the same as many people currently know little about hunting, farming, or gathering firewood.
But that is all end-user stuff. Look behind the curtain and you will see optical chips replacing silicon, stronger encryption, advances in parallel computing, and a bigger push to make all of that more cheaply so as to reduce unit price and make a profit on cheer volume; if halving the price triples sales, that’s a win.
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