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Dutchess_III's avatar

Are the seasons amazingly predictable?

Asked by Dutchess_III (47069points) June 29th, 2014

Yes, we have occasional, wild variations, but I’ve found I can just about set my watch by certain days. I don’t take my plants outside until May 1st, no matter HOW nice and warm it gets in March or April. I’ve learned that, invariably, if I take my plants out at any time in April it’s going to go below freezing, and I have to hustle to bring them back in (and they are HUGE plants, so it’s not an easy task!) After May, thus far (in 30 years) I don’t have to worry about it. (It actually went below freezing on April 31st this year.)

I vow not to turn on my AC until July. June can get warm in the afternoons, but I’ve learned if I can just stick it out for a couple of hours it always cools down enough after about 6:00 I can just open my windows. Well, today is June 29th. It’s been raining for three days and it hit 75 degrees at 10 a.m. so that tells me that it’s going to get unbearably hot and humid for the rest of the day. I turned my AC on for the first time this year.

It’s like clock work. May 1st and July 1st (or very close to that.)

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17 Answers

dappled_leaves's avatar

It depends. In some regions, yes, they are very predictable. In others, their unpredictability is predictable. Assuming you are in the US, much depends on which side of the continent you are on, what latitude you are at, and whether you are near a mountain range or large body of water (and which side of these you are on). Any of these things will affect the stability of the climate, and how quickly it will change either in response to weather systems or the seasons.

Dutchess_III's avatar

I’m in Kansas. Our weather is hugely affected by the Rockies, to the west. Our seasons are extreme. It can hit 120 in summer, -30 in winter. It can also change drastically in a matter of a few minutes. Change by 20 or 30 degrees in 5 minutes. That’s usually a sign to hover near the basement, though! Maybe the fact that is is SO unpredictable and the fact that it is so extreme is what makes me marvel at May 1st and July 1st.

dxs's avatar

Not in New England.

ucme's avatar

Not around here, we can have all four seasons in just one day.

Dutchess_III's avatar

That can happen here too @ucme! I’ve seen snow in the morning, rain at noon, and 90 degrees and sunny in the afternoon.

ucme's avatar

“Look at it out there, what the hell do I put on?”

Dutchess_III's avatar

Yeah. That layering season. Start with a T-shirt, add a sweat shirt and a coat, and shed as the day goes on!

JLeslie's avatar

Pretty much yes. Even a month where the weather is “unpredictable” that is predictable. October will be unpredictable period, everywhere in the US.

January will likely be the coldest month everywhere in the US.

There will be a storm almost every day in August and September in Florida from Vero Beach/Tampa and south.

If the summer was a really cool one in the northeast this year, the winter will likely be really ridiculously cold following that summer.

The Cherry Blossoms will be in full bloom near the beginning of April in DC, give or take two weeks.

Tornado season will whip in across the south May, June, and July. Tornadoes will be more in the northern states (where they occur) June, July, and August.

Many people in northern states want to believe winter ends with March, but no it often goes into April when you are so sick and tired of the cold you can’t take it anymore. However, you might have had some really wonderful spring days in the month of March just to screw with you.

And so one and so on.

Dutchess_III's avatar

Why did the powers that be settle on 28–32 days in the months? It seems like here, anyway, the weather changes on the 1st of every month.

dappled_leaves's avatar

Going to have to unfollow due to misinformation making me want to fling things across the room.

Dutchess_III's avatar

OK. Feel free.

zenvelo's avatar

@Dutchess_III the length of months was based on the Moon. The length of a week was based on the phases of the moon.

Interesting you brought this up today. It is very warm here in the SF Bay Area today, surprisingly warm, and different from the way it was warm just a week ago. But we’ve gone past some demarcation to where it is popcorn dry, no moisture in the air at all, and it feels like being in front of a heater. Very much a difference from ten days ago before the solstice.

Dutchess_III's avatar

Oh, of course @zenvelo. Hell, I knew that and now I feel sheepish!

But yeah. It does seem like switch gets flipped at the same time every year.

flutherother's avatar

They are quite unpredictable here. Last winter we had no snow, the winter before that we had lots of snow and ice. This winter? Who knows. A couple of nights ago I had to put the heating on.

Dutchess_III's avatar

My question came about because I have two dates plugged into my head…May 1st and July 1st. Every year from the last 30 years I mark those dates. I don’t have any similar dates I remember for certain reasons in the fall and winter. Without that marker, I’d say the same. Who knows what’s gonna happen and when?!

We were in a drought for the last 2 or 3 years. Not anymore! It has been raining harder than I’ve ever seen it!

JLeslie's avatar

@Dutchess_III In Memphis every year in the fall there is a European car club charity event for Youth Villages. They always try to book the same weekend. I think it is the last weekend in September? Not a specific date, but a specific weekend of the month. They get that weekend, because the guy who puts the whole thing together has a friend who is a weather guy and that guy told him that that weekend is the least likely to rain, and most likely to have perfect fall weather. 9 times out of 10 the weather is perfect all weekend.

Dutchess_III's avatar

Interesting. My husband’s family reunion is the 3rd weekend in September. I can’t remember ever having crappy weather during one.

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