Does the NOAA hurricane forecast for 2015 mean that Americans have finally started to get global warming under control?
Asked by
josie (
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May 27th, 2015
This site has NOAA predictions about hurricanes in 2015
http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2015/05/how_many_hurricanes_will_we_ha.html
Al Gore, who went to Harvard and is therefore a pretty smart guy and probably right about much of what he says, implied that Katrina was a result of Global Warming.
NOAA made their forecast for 2015 and predicted it is likely that the hurricane activity has a pretty good chance of being mild this year. Which means a lower chance of another Katrina.
So does that mean that Americans have finally started to turn the corner on Global Warming?
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11 Answers
No.
Scientific evidence links the occurrence of El Nino with increased wind shear in the tropical Atlantic Basin, which is one factor, along with dry air, that limits the development and strengthening of tropical cyclones. Source
You can draw no conclusion about climate change form a single storm or a single season or a single year.
@syz
Then if you cannot use a single storm, a single season or a single year as at least some form of measurement, how do you know which weather events are Global Warming, and which ones are inevitable?
You measure it all, and then you look at statistically significant trends.
You look at atmospheric carbon dioxide levels (currently higher than it’s been in 650,000 years), at sea levels (up 6.7 inches in the last century, most of that in the last decade), global temperatures, ocean temperatures, measure the mass of ice sheets and sea ice and glaciers, ocean acidification, extreme weather events, snow accumulation records, and you draw your conclusions from decades to centuries to millennia of data.
No. It’s a forecast, not a guarantee.
We have no idea how accurate the prediction will be. Some if it is cyclical and randomish.
I lived in SE Florida when Andrew blew through. Devastating hurricane. After that hurricane FL had years of quiet. Then everything revved up again big time. That’s how it is.
America can help get it under control but it is a global problem. The weather is very variable, it is the long term trends you have to look at. Extreme weather events are becoming more common.
If you notice it, it is weather. If anything, it is a sign that things are getting even worse. The ocean temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean are at a new record high.
@josie “Then if you cannot use a single storm, a single season or a single year as at least some form of measurement, how do you know which weather events are Global Warming, and which ones are inevitable?”
It’s like introducing a thousand pounds of heroin into a local market through an anonymous distribution channel. Sure some people would have OD’d on heroine if you hadn’t done that, but the number of OD’s would increase sharply. You could never attribute a specific overdose to your contribution, but you could tell that your actions had a significant impact.
You can’t look at a single weather event, but you can look at trends over years, decades, and see there is a warming trend.
IF one is looking at a single weather event as an indicator, consider the weather in India this week.
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