Well, 250 watts for 4 hours is 1,000 watt-hours or 1 kwh. And that’s assuming that you’re feeding it right from a 120-volt AC source, but you won’t be; you’ll be using batteries (which are DC, not AC) hooked to an inverter to turn 12v DC into 115v AC.
Inverters are not 100% efficient; their efficiency varies considerably with load, but I generally figure about 80% for an average. To get 1kwh out, you’ll have to put in roughly (1,000 / 0.8) or 1,250 watt-hours. Divide by 12 volts and you get a little over 100 amp-hours. Divide that by 42 amp-hours per battery, round up to the nearest whole battery so that you get at least 4 hours of light, and that’s three batteries worth by itself. And if you only have an average of four hours of usable sunlight for the panels, you’ll need ( 1,250 watt-hours / 4 hours ) or 312.5 watts of panels just to charge those three batteries to use that one light for 4 hours and be able to do that every day.
Alternatively, you could use the same amount of power to charge all of your cordless tools daily instead of weekly, go on a marathon surfing session with your laptop, get a cool breeze from both fans and still have enough left over to keep your fridge cold. That is how much that worklight draws.
Checking around a bit shows me that a 250W Halogen spotlight puts out about the same amount of light (same number of lumens) as a 20W LED. Changing out your worklight would reduce your power draw from the lighting by about 90%. Since that worklight alone is about half of your load (assuming a propane heater), your overall power needs will drop about 45%. For discussion’s sake, we’ll call it half. Take a look at the price of panels and batteries, and you’ll see how spending a few dozen dollars on new worklights can save you hundreds, possibly thousands on your attempt to go off-grid.
Personally, I like to put a little margin in for safety and to account for any erroneous approximations of unknown variables. Even then though, I think a 500W panel should suffice unless you add more loads that you haven’t mentioned.
As for batteries, I’d go a little overboard. I am accustomed to trees taking out lines and being without power for more than four hours at a stretch. If I ever lost power for six days again, I would probably just say, “Screw it!”, and live in the workshop with the propane heater and the working fridge. But there is one other benefit to getting a little overzealous with the batteries. See, certain types of batteries despise deep-cycling. A regular car battery will generally screw the pooch if reduced below 50% capacity. Marine batteries are considerably more tolerant of deep-cycling, but unless you’re using NiCad, draining 8 batteries halfway is a bit better than draining 4 batteries completely.
More importantly, batteries have internal resistance that does increasingly detrimental things as amp draw rises. Simply put, drawing 0.1 amps from each of 10 batteries is better than drawing a full amp from a single battery. Drawing a little too much current won’t do much more than reduce your battery lifespan, but it’s still mildly bad. Drawing enough juice to suck a battery dead in an hour will cut it’s lifespan even more. And as most who have ever run hobby-grade R/C cars knows, sucking a battery dead in under six minutes generates enough waste heat to cause severe injury even if mounted securely to aluminum with plenty of cooling fins in addition to longevity issues.
Different types of batteries have slightly different characteristics there, but without getting too deep, a good rule of thumb is that you want enough Lead-acid batteries to have the amp-hours to last at least five hours. (or 0.2C). If you go NiMH or Lithium, those are more tolerant of loads in that if you have enough amp-hours to last 2 hours or more, you won’t run into issues; the sweet spot is >2 hours for NiMH (0.5C) and >1 hr (1C) for Lithiums.
If you fall short of that threshold, you risk going a little too deep into a discharge cycle, and while the loss of efficiency is tolerable, it does have a detrimental effect on how long the batteries last. I don’t think you want to replace all the batteries every 2–3 years when going just a little overboard now can stretch that replacement time considerably.
Oh, and read this for a little more info.