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Espiritus_Corvus's avatar

Re: Russian air attacks in Syria. What do you think Russia's objective is in Syria and what do think would be the best U.S. reaction?

Asked by Espiritus_Corvus (17294points) September 30th, 2015

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9 Answers

stanleybmanly's avatar

Russia’s objective is stability on its Southern borders, and the elimination of an entity guaranteed to stir up matters there as its announced intent. Frankly, Putin’s view is a great deal more sensible than our own, and he has a lot more to lose from our screwing the region up than we ourselves. If he wants to carry the load and expense, LET HIM. We in the West need to get over the illusion that there is somehow going to be a collection of flourishing democracies in the Middle East. Stability in the region is going to be about disciplined brute force as it has been since before the rise of it’s prophet.

josie's avatar

Russia has been perpetually handicapped by not having a warm water port that does not freeze in the winter.
That is their interest in Crimea.
That is their interest in Syria, from which they will challenge Iran for control of Iraq and from there into the Persian Gulf, then the Indian Ocean and points East.
The Russians have no moral or logistical qualms about confronting Iraq in the Middle East.

They have been frustrated in achieving this goal for 200 years, first by the British and then by the Americans.
The Americans are bagging out of the Middle East, for lack of will and money. But mostly lack of will. The current president is uncomfortable about committing to the Middle East, and everybody knows it. Not saying he is right or wrong, but that is his policy.
The Russians are seizing the opportunity.
No one is going to stop them.
The only people that might dream of stopping them is Iran and they are not ready to do so.
Its a free ride for the Russians.

stanleybmanly's avatar

Hardly Free! And I seriously doubt that Russia will make the stupid mistake we did involving Iraq or anything else in the region. Their little adventure in Afghanistan is a lesson that we missed. Nobody is stupid enough to miss the lessons from OUR escapades in the region. The place has been the graveyard of Western ambitions since the days of the Roman Republic.

josie's avatar

@stanleybmanly
The Russians aren’t Western

Espiritus_Corvus's avatar

I wholly agree with @stanleybmanly—and @josie too, except for his American assessment (We are hardly bagging out). Let me just add one other facet to this:

In only the past four years the world’s population has increased by more than 200 million people (fully two-thirds of the U.S. population), mostly in poorer, less stable economies.

This kind of stress causes further instability and causes the leaders of these countries to adapt more stringent dictatorial powers in reaction to the inevitable resistance of popular uprisings usually supported by outside influence. Thus we have the mass emigrations you see in Europe at the moment.

We can expect the rate of the earth’s population growth to increase, as that is how humans procreate—geometrically, not arithmetically—and therefore the next four years will see more than a 200 million person increase. So, the emigration to wealthier democracies will not only continue, but increase as well. It is only a matter of years before we can expect the same deluge of the poor and disenfranchised, making our present worries over immigration from the south a drop in the bucket in comparison. We are not immune to the present circumstance in which Europe finds itself.

The instability that this mass immigration can cause in the healthier economies (and therefore their democratic systems of government) will inevitably affect the economies of their less attractive trade partners such as Russia and China. I can only surmise that if a retired American nurse on tiny, remote St. Lucia realizes this, so do the world’s leaders.

At the risk of sounding sickeningly Pollyannish, I would like to believe that eventually the nations that now find themselves at risk of invasion by these innocents, will formulate a way to fix the countries these people come from and make them places one can again earn a living and raise their children. I entertain the idea that Putin has decided that not only can he finally establish Russian presence in the Middle East, but also stabilize the country and stop a lot of the emigration, hopefully kicking off a concerted effort by the Big Four (U.S., Russia, China, Europe) to fix other source countries of this mass immigration.

Take Libya, for example. Here is a country rich in oil, that if its government was stabilized and shared it’s natural wealth with it’s citizens in the same way that Norway does, Italy and other countries would have much less an immigration problem as Libyan refugees would want to stay home, raise their children and thrive in their own culture and nation. It would take the cooperation and military of the Big Four to do this. Fix and leave. Then move on to the next unstable country. Find a way. I don’t believe the wealthier countries have much of a choice in taking action like this.

What do you guys think?

stanleybmanly's avatar

I’m much more cynical than you about an orderly solution to the economic migrant problem. The coming environmental dislocations are going to seriously exacerbate the situation in the coming years and the current deluge from Syria, Iraq and the Horn of Africa are but a mild preview of what awaits us. Here in the States we can probably expect accelerating pressure from Latin American migrants as we face up to our own sliding standard of living. But perhaps not. The influx from Mexico is currently sliding downward in the face of declining opportunities here.

talljasperman's avatar

To get UN financial support before attacking.

stanleybmanly's avatar

@josie The Russians aren’t Western to whom?

FireMadeFlesh's avatar

Russia’s objective is quite simple – to use the existing government and associated structures as a vehicle to fight terrorism. The optimal US response would be to stop arming terrorists, and join with the Russians in this goal.

It is painfully obvious that the US’s strategy has failed. They’ve only managed to train a handful of fighters, more than half of which immediately handed their weapons to Al Qaeda linked organisations in exchange for free passage. Meanwhile the air campaign is proving to be limited in effectiveness, while running out of ISIL targets. Some days see only a single air strike being carried out.

As Russia has pointed out, the Syrian government are fighting terrorists within their own country. They are highly motivated, determined, and with the right support they are capable of destroying the extremist threat. The Syrian government isn’t exactly desirable, but at this point we should be able to agree that they are the best option in defeating ISIL and the other extremist factions in the region.

Unfortunately the hubris of the US and her allies will prevent this outcome.

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