@Cruiser That also partly explains Sanders. While he lacks much in name recognition outside of Vermont and the surrounding area, he provides a Liberal alternative to Hillary, who is undeniably an establishment politician. In that respect, he serves the same role in the Democratic primary as Trump, Fiorina, and Carson fill amongst Republicans.
What sets him apart from the three Republicans you mention is that he has managed to be in politics long enough to become “part of the establishment” without actually doing so. That gives him competence on par with governors and other Senators while retaining the qualities that got him elected as two-term Mayor of Burlington, VT before getting sent to Congress.
But while some may consider him a radical, he truly is no more radical than anything you’ll find over in Europe, especially the Nordic section. You would have to try pretty hard to convince me that Trump and Carson are not more radical than Sanders.
That combination of experience and non-conformity makes him viable enough that he will survive and remain in the race once the circus tents come down. He’s among the more qualified candidates on either side. If we were to narrow the field by competence and qualifications to take the job while dismissing those who have objectively poor track records, that leaves Clinton, Sanders, Bush, Rubio and candidates polling less than the margin of error.
I see a dilemma for the Republicans there though. While the Democrats have effectively narrowed their field down to just two viable candidates that between them satisfy the majority of the party base, the Republicans aren’t even close to that. Part of the reason for that is that the Republican base itself is divided between those who want a competent, experienced Conservative in the Oval Office and those treating this election like a WWE pay-per-view.
That means that both Hillary and Bernie have the luxury of being able to work on the primary and still have time to work on their post-primary campaign while their opponents are too busy trying to get the support of half the party without alienating the other half (a feat which I consider virtually impossible due to the magnitude of the ideological divide between them) which will leave whoever wins the GOP nomination a little less prepared when they have to try winning over swing voters in a general election. And how they campaign in the primary will set the tone for how well they do in November 2016 since moderating their rhetoric too much will lose their base while catering to the base will lose the middle; again, McCain 2012 comes to mind.
“The real mud slinging hasn’t happened yet so it is way too early to see who will emerge as the real front runners on both sides and I expect some dramatic changes in the polls once it commences and we get a couple more debates under our belts.”
Entirely so. And by New Years, I expect that those are the four names you’ll see the most in any discussion of serious contenders. Then the real mud-slinging starts, though I seriously doubt Sanders will take part in that behavior the way more mainstream candidates do; he hasn’t done it in over 30 years, and I don’t think he’ll start any time soon. If he does wind up beating Hillary for the Democratic nomination, that trait could make for an unconventional election campaign when it’s just him and whoever the GOP puts up. But that is months down the road.
On a semi-related note, have you noticed the difference of opinion in who won the Democratic debate? Given how many Conservatives complain about “Liberal media”, I think it’s hilarious.