Sanders vs Clinton?

Clinton. The Socialist label won’t fly in a lot of states

I agree with @filmfann As much as I love Bernie Sanders and would want for him to win with all my heart and soul, I don’t think he’s going to fit the rest of America’s viewpoints as much as the younger candidates would want him. I agree with almost all of his social standpoints, but the economy needs to be fixed, and I’m not quite sure if Bernie would know where to begin to fix that.

My vote is for Bernie.

I like Bernie a lot. But he has three major things going against him:

- He styles himself as a socialist. I’m OK with that, but millions of Americans fly off the handle when you say the word socialist. Next thing you know, he’ll be called a commie or worse.

- He’s Jewish. As in NOT christian. He may not practice it; he may not wear it on his sleeve, but I guarantee you that one of the Republicans will play the “jew card” – and we all know that there are a zillion Baptists (and other christians) who won’t be happy with a non-christian president.

- finally, and most important, he has no foreign policy smarts. He’s good on domestic issues, but nothing but sloganeering in foreign affairs. Hillary will eat his lunch at a foreign policy debate.

So, much as I like Bernie, he’s not going anywhere.

I think Bernie will win. It’s not like we have a handful of people who control our media and politicians or anything….

Between a relative unknown with a label that ignorant people consider bad and someone with name recognition and a questionable reputation, I’m going to side with whichever one offers the most entertaining show. It definitely won’t be decided on merit!

Sanders can overcome the “Socialist” label pretty easy though. A lot of the people who are turned off by that term are people who already locked into a straight-Republican ticket before they were even potty-trained, and he’s doing an okay job of explaining to the open-minded (swing-voters) that his stances are pretty much the same as much of Europe.

There are many who feel that Clinton would just preserve the status quo, or that she is actually the most-qualified Republican in the race. enough that Bernie has a shot.

@elbanditoroso Not entirely true. While he is at a disadvantage compared to an ex-Secretary of State whose job involved more foreign affairs than even a President, that doesn’t mean he is clueless. Or are you implying that neither chamber of Congress has had to deal with anything related to foreign policy in the last 25 years?
Also, they bashed JFK, Romney, and the Pope for being non-Christian; make of that what you will.

Neither Clinton nor Sanders would ever run as an independent, so they will not be facing off in the presidential election. I assume, then, that you meant to ask about the presidential primary. In that case, I think that Clinton will win for a variety of reasons.

Sanders being a democratic socialist hurts him on two fronts. First, it scares off moderates who don’t want to be associated with anything that has “socialist” in the name (even though Sanders has been very explicit about the fact that he is not a socialist). Second, it turns off actual socialists (who seem to be some of the only people in the country to realize that democratic socialists aren’t socialists).

The radical left in the US is just about as uncompromising and impossible to please as the radical right. Two people who adopt different strains of Communism, for instance, are likely to hate each other even more than they hate Republicans once they get talking. So the idea that there will be a coalition of leftists rallying behind Sanders is laughable. They’re too busy explaining why he’s not their candidate to think about whether or not he should be (imperfect representative as he surely is for their various causes).

Clinton won’t be winning the radical left either, but she will be getting a hefty majority of the moderates (particularly once the vanity candidates drop out). She’ll also be getting the people who just want to win and think that she has the best chance for victory when the actual election comes about. And the people who think it’s about time we had a female president. And the former Biden supporters. And the right-leaning Democrats who don’t care (or secretly like) that she grew up a Republican.

But the main reason I think Clinton will win has nothing to do with this sort of predictive analysis. It has to do with the numbers. While Sanders is doing well in places where the media likes to focus (e.g., New Hampshire), Clinton is dominating when you look at the primary race at the national level. Furthermore, she’s vastly more popular among women and minority voters (whereas nearly all of Sanders’ voters are young, white, and male). And she got the largest boost in the polls after the debate. The only real question is whether she’ll decide to be more gracious than President Obama and ask Sanders to join her on the ticket.

Hillary.

@elbanditoroso A lot of evangelicals I knew liked Lieberman because he was religious. Christians like people who believe in God and who will complete the temple on the mount for the second coming. Sanders would have more trouble in my opinion if he came out as a secular Jew. I don’t know if he is an atheist, but the right wing Christians really care about that if he is.

It doesn’t matter at all what the evangelicals think, except for black voters. White evangelicals don’t vote for democrats. Well, maybe 7 of them do. 7 out of the millions of evangelicals in our country (I’m making up numbers obviously).

I love Bernie. But I suspect that Hillary will win the nomination. I would certainly vote for Hillary over any Republican or Independent candidate.

@SavoirFaire – she wouldn’t pick Sanders for VP. Two reasons:

1) age – she’s 68, he’s 70-something. Politics would suggest that she’ll go for someone in their 40s or 50s. One generation passing the torch to the next.

2) Both Clinton and Sanders are white. If I were Clinton, I would go for some of the more serious Latinos that are moving up in the democratic party – of which there are a good dozen to choose from.

@JLeslie – he’s openly a secular Jew, and has publicly answered “Do you believe in God?” with “I believe we’re all in this together”

@Seek I think he loses a lot of the black vote there.

@SavoirFaire Sound reasoning, and I mostly agree. Mostly.

There is one huge wildcard that you neglected to mention; the young voters who aren’t scared by the “Socialist” label. The 18–25 demographic tends to be a little more radical than us older folks, so many may agree with him on policy more than they do the more buttoned-down Clinton. Or maybe they would just prefer voting for a crazy uncle rather than a prim-and-proper aunt. The reason I say that they are a wildcard is that it’s hard to predict whether they will actually go to the polls. If they do, then you may find the “radical” candidate has a better shot than you seem to be giving credit for.

Also, many residents of the Northeast are familiar enough with Sanders that they either ignore the “Socialist” label or hate him enough that there’s no chance of getting their vote anyways. Many see Sanders as no more radical than Clinton, which makes at least seven states that don’t jibe with the assertions you made in your second paragraph. Depending on how effectively he campaigns over the next few months, there may be more by the time the primaries roll around.

You are right on many things like the Far Left not getting behind either candidate, or Clinton likely picking up most of the Biden supporters. I’m just not ready to call it a slam dunk for Hillary like you are. I’ve seen enough surprises and upsets over the years that it would be imprudent to, especially this far out.

@syz You wouldn’t vote for an Independent? That reminds me of this Simpsons bit. It never seems to occur to many people that if enough people vote for a third-party candidate, that candidate will win; that the only reason Independents “can’t” win is because so many voters are afraid to color outside the lines.

@JLeslie I hate to say it, but in light of recent events, that might not matter in some places. You seem to be under the assumption that all voting districts are equal opportunity, but law isn’t always reality.

@elbanditoroso I agree that it’s unlikely. But Bill decided not diversify the ticket by picking a fellow Southerner of roughly the same age, and it worked out for him. Hillary might do something similar if she thinks the progressive left needs appeasement (though it would have to balance out the “socialist” stigma among moderates, and I don’t think the numbers will work out in Sanders’ favor there). Or maybe it’s already a done deal in exchange for the civil primary.

@jerv If you read carefully, you’ll see that I already dealt with all of that. I noted that Sanders has support (indeed, almost all of his support) among the young (who don’t care what kind of socialist he is or isn’t). The sentence in my second paragraph that seems to be what you are taking issue with was not a universal generalization about all moderates. And I never called it a slam dunk for Clinton. I said I think she’s going to win, not that she has it in the bag.

P.S. There’s a difference between an Independent and an independent. I suspect that difference may be key to understanding @syz‘s position.

I’m 30 and I really want Bernie to win the primary, but I’m very skeptical that he well. I agree with him to a much higher degree on everything than I do with Clinton, who honestly just seems like a Republican to me – which I’m finding very hard to support. I don’t yet know what I’ll do if Clinton wins the primary. I might not vote for the first time in my life, because I’m sick of things in America. We need a drastic change and I do not see Hillary bringing it about.

@DrasticDreamer There are other candidates than the Democrats and the Republicans. If Clinton wins the primary, you can always look at a third party. Perhaps Jill Stein would be up your alley?

I’ll roll with Sanders til the wheels fall off. As long as he’s in the race, I’m in his corner.

Well, they won’t be running against each other in the end. I think Clinton is going to end up with the nomination and I think there will be a place for Sanders at the head table in the Clinton administration. Remember that President Obama gave Clinton Secretary of State. I don’t think Sanders is cut out for that (noted his lack of overseas policy clout and probably interest) but I’m sure he’ll be there swash and buckling, shoulder to shoulder with Elizabeth Warren on all things domestic and consumer/labour affairs.

I just googled my ‘dream ticket’ of Sanders/Warren and I’m amazed at how much support it actually has! I’m feeling a lot less alone and far-out with my political musings.

@jerv I don’t completely understand your response to me, Can you expand on it a little.

@JLeslie I think @jerv is referring to the fact that in some black neighbourhoods, there has been serious effort on the part of the GOP to make it as difficult to vote as possible since the poll tax and the establishment of Jim Crow laws. In fact, the new voter registration laws in some areas are seen as a reintroduction of de facto Jim Crow laws.

@cazzie Thanks for helping me with what @jerv meant. That effects such a small percentage of the black population it still doesn’t change my answer about the black vote, especially the black vote in the Bible Belt. I could be wrong, because so many black people do vote Democrat (to be clear I know we are talking about two Democrats and the primaries, I’m just making a point) when they are very against gay marriage and abortion. Maybe those particular black people ignore religious affiliation and belief in God too when push comes to shove? I just think in the primaries if they can choose a believer that’s what they will do if everything else seems fairly equal.

@JLeslie I think you over-generalise. Also, the real issue here is access to the vote. I think someone talking about income inequality and civil rights is closer to them. The KKK was burning synagogues down, too, remember. Check out the history of the NAACP.

I only mean a significant percentage of blacks, which might not even be the majority. I think it probably is over 50%, but maybe not. I’m not way up at 90% or anything like that.

You are saying what I said, that they ignore the social issue favoring the fiscal ones.

Of course I know people hated the Jews. I still will generalize about the Jewish vote. It tends to be liberal, but there is more than a few Jews who are Republicans, that’s for sure. The liberal Jews wouldn’t care very much if someone believed in God or not.

@JLeslie I’m saying that you are over generalizing and forgetting some issues about the black vote. Did you notice anything about the history of the NAACP? Did you notice that a significant number of national leaders were Jewish? I don’t think being culturally Jewish is going to be a problem when it comes to the black vote in the South. The problem is going to be the GOP making it difficult for them to qualify to vote.

I am not real sure either one will win a presidential election.
Biden could have.

@cazzie I point that out all the time. Jews have fought for civil rights throughout American history. The amount of Jews that showed up during the civil rights movement is impossible to ignore in my opinion, and yet a lot of blacks do. Again, maybe not the majority, but a significant amount. Stats back 30 years ago showed it was the majority back then. New stats say this has changed a lot. Not enough in my opinion.

I found these articles with a quick google:

A historical account

Washington Post 2014

@JLeslie why are you arguing with me on a point we are both making? It is in the Republican’s best interest to block the votes of poor, black neighbourhoods. Are you saying the neighbourhoods deserve it because they haven’t been grateful enough?

Gawd no! I’m saying whether we count the people being stopped from voting because of republican efforts or don’t count those people I still say a lot of Bible Belt blacks care about God and religion. Even in big northern cities like NY and Chicago enough blacks look at Jews as the slumlords.

@JLeslie I’ve not heard of that reality. When I think of slumlords, I think of slumlords. Trump has been a slumlord (might still be… if you talk to some of his tenants). Either way, Bernie Sanders obviously doesn’t represent that group and if anyone votes or doesn’t vote based on someone’s ethnic heritage when it isn’t represented in their deeds, they will get the president they deserve. I think if we can elect a half-black president and then re-elect him, we can have a man with Jewish heritage whose deeds reflect sticking up for middle class and civil rights and knocking down the monopolist policies of financial institutions and the most wealthy. Your harsh judgement based on your own racial stereotypes is rather glaring.

@cazzie My racial stereotypes? I am talking about research and statistics.

I also believe a Jewish person can be president. I voted for Obama. I hope you aren’t saying I’m a racist?

The GOP are making it difficult for poor neighborhoods to vote because they know they are votes for the Democratic candidate. The author you quote from the Washington Post holds an interesting and glaring bias you might want to check out.

Here is an article about Jewish landlords written by a Jew. Luckily, it appears the tenants realize the difference between their landlords and the Jewish people helping them, although it’s very possible they still over generalize about observant Jews.

There is a joke that Jews don’t ski they own the mountain. Why in your background and experience would you be familiar with renting in large American cities or being a minority in America? Are you on the inside conversation with poor black Americans and how they feel about politics, religion, and Jewish people? Have you read up on it, studied it? What do you base your opinion on? If I base my opinion on my own experience I see very little racism and very little antisemitism, but I live as an upper middle class white Jewish girl who interacts with a very diverse group of people who are also middle class.

@cazzie To respond to your last answer—so what when it comes to primaries?

Plus, I would love to know how many people are really prevented from voting?

@JLeslie so what that the GOP is making it difficult for people to vote? Ah.. ok. You can say that.

I’m basing my comments on the fact that Sanders is a Democrat. I find any other element is a Non sequitur.

It isn’t going to block that many people, so that makes those laws OK? wow.

@JLeslie – for an anecdote, during the last presidential election, a workmate was put on the provisional ballot line and handed a ballot in Spanish, because he “looked like he spoke Spanish”. He had to raise hell in order to cast a real vote.

There were civil rights activists outside the building asking everyone if they had been prevented from voting for any reason. Unfortunately, none of them actually did speak Spanish, either.

So, who knows how many Hispanic citizens were prevented from casting a regular ballot vote?

Also, Gage also happened to know the provisional ballot law, and could argue why he was eligible for a real one. Most people don’t.

Who said the laws are ok? I think we should ID people to vote and that we should provide every American who does not drive with a free ID card so everyone can vote. My point again is if we are just discussing how black people think about Jews, God, religion and how they vote, how they want to vote, even if the GOP puts up an obstacle in the end, who do black people want to vote for? Dwelling on the GOP is off topic in my opinion.

https://books.google.com/books?id=S8EBAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA26&lpg=PA26&dq=what+do.blacks+say+about+jews&source=bl&ots=4FECTXQKtF&sig=qtmG96K2j0gM847MzFTXpqUJXaM&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CDoQ6AEwCGoVChMIid6cw-DiyAIVQTY-Ch3ASQhT#v=onepage&q=what%20do.blacks%20say%20about%20jews&f=true

@Seek We probably don’t know accurate numbers. Again, I’m talking about primaries and who people want to vote for. I want to ensure everyone can vote. I also want to ensure there is as little fraud as possible.

@cazzie Hillary is a democrat too! Let’s talk if everyone can vote freely, no problem with GOP blocking voters. Now, are you still arguing black voters don’t care if a candidate is Jewish? Atheist? That’s what I was talking about, you and @jerv are talking about something else.

and use a 20 year old article to support your argument that wasn’t even an argument to begin with. I wasn’t the one who brought up the ‘Blacks hate Jews’ argument. You did.

I said I knew those attitudes existed 20 years ago. I don’t know what the feelings are in the community now, but the 2014 article suggests there is still antisemitism in the black community.

Plus, I think Sanders identifying as secular is more damaging than being Jewish.

I know this is a bit off the topic, but is Donald Trump Jewish? Some friends were discussing it the other day and nobody knew.

Trump is Presbyterian.

I find it funny some people might think he’s Jewish. Real estate mogul and all. Lol.~

I don’t think there is any need to worry about the reaction of black voters to Sanders’ Jewish identity, Any misplaced sentiments some black folks may have regarding Jews is a joke stacked up against the monumental and universally acknowledged transgressions of Republicans. Conservatives have noisily solved that ugly antisemitic tendency among a few black folks. In fact they’ve solved it to such an extent that were Sanders a Muslim fundamentalist, he would still sweep the black vote in this country against any joker the GOP might field INCLUDING Carson.

@stanleybmanly What is your opinion regarding religion and atheism when it’s Sanders vs. Clinton? Do you think black people just look at the issues and ignore religion and belief in God altogether?

It’s tough to say. Clinton of course has the edge, with black voters, just as she has the edge with democrats in general. Sanders has VERY strong pull with educated black leftists for obvious reasons, and his support will climb steadily the more he is exposed to the majority of black voters, who like their white counterparts, are unaware of just what the man is saying, and

I’ll add I think very religious whites and Hispanics might also have some of the same reservations about Sanders being secular, not just blacks. I was just pointing out above that a large portion of black people take religion very seriously, and many of them are very conservative on social issues. Living in the south was the first time I learned there are bunches of people in this country who are socially conservative and fiscally liberal. I was shocked. I never would have guessed it. Religion is the main reason from what I can tell, and other influences on black culture.

You’re right. The black population very much shares the same dispositions on “moral” issues in the deep South as their white counterparts. And as with their white neighbors this tendency becomes ever more pronounced, the more rural or isolated the location. But it’s important to note that neither Clinton nor Sanders are exactly bible thumpers, and you don’t find Jesus or the bible injected into either of their pronouncements. This is likely to change, and Clinton is bound to show up in various church pews (along with her fornicating husband) looking as devout as can be arranged. Sanders can’t pull off such stunts, BUT when it comes to those liberal FISCAL issues, NO ONE is within miles of the man. He isn’t the greatest orator in the world, but once he starts talking, what he says is going to ring a loud bell with people trapped in places defined by destitution, and no one is going to understand that message more than impoverished black people.

Thank you for all of your guys’ opinions!

@stanleybmanly I did LOL in your description of the Clintons in the churches. :)

I want to add that I think it is impossible to overrate the importance of Sanders’ candidacy, in bringing more than required rhetoric to the political table. He is a genuine populist, and unlike his competition, NO ONE doubts for a second that the man means and intends to DO EXACTLY what he says. Were he to somehow win the nomination, it would generate a crisis in establishment politics unseen since the days of William Jennings Bryan.

@JLeslie That’s an unknown variable, and large enough that it cannot be ignored without more thought than I’ve given it. Then again, I’ve recently noted that when you break it down by religion, Hillary has a profound edge over Sanders among those who regularly attend church so it might only make a difference in margin of victory for Clinton.

@SavoirFaire She doesn’t seem bad, but I’d need to do additional research. Not that I think she stands a chance, either, though.

@DrasticDreamer I agree that she doesn’t stand a chance, but I also don’t think that individual votes are all about picking the winner. I most cases, they’re about indicating who you’d most want to win (whether they actually win or not). And voting for third-party candidates when they aren’t viable is the only way they can ever become relevant enough to actually be viable.

@SavoirFaire I don’t disagree with that at all. It’s just very disappointing.