Yes climate change is a serious matter, based not on my opinion but on the weight of available evidence. The following is a joint statement from the world’s major national science academies.
http://www.lincei.it/files/dichiarazioni/G8+5_Academies_Statement-Climate.pdf
I think false claims permeate any public discussion where there are few cross checks on the accuracy of claims. However, with regards to the issue being “over-hyped, this needs to be seen not just in regards to what is said, but what is being done.
Currently the rate of greenhouse gas emissions are not just increasing, but increasing in intensity. Furthermore the world’s land and ocean based natural sinks appear to be declining in efficiency. In other words instead of 40% of emissions becoming an atmospheric fraction, now approximately 45% of emissions are doing so. AS such nature is doing less work for us. For this reason the sooner we act the more of the work nature will do.
Although short term cooling periods (as caused by la nina influences on Pacific upwellings)are predicted to make short term compensations for warming, this is not predicted to be any more than a brief interlude in the general pattern of climate warming.
Although over the last 100 years the Earth has seen a general warming of approximately 0.7 degrees, it is quite possible for us to double or triple the amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere unless we begin serious and encompassing mitigation efforts. Due to inherrent time lags in the climate system every year lost makes reductions that much harder.
We are currently producing approximately double the amount of emissions than can be absorbed by natural sinks. AS such, greenhouse gas emissions will continue to increase until we halve emissions, they will just increase at a lower rate as we approach this limt. Think of a bathtub filling at double the rate of the water exiting, a 10% reduction in the inflow won’t reverse the fill, just slow it. Without dramatic cuts, the climate will keep warming. Until we drop our emissions to below half of their current rate, our best estimates suggest that greenhouse gas accumulation will continue to increase. Couple this with decreasing efficiency of natural sinks and you start to understand what all the fuss is about.
With every degree rise (and it seems inevitable that this century will see an increase of at least a couple of degrees if we continue on our current trajectory) we risk larger impacts in terms of shifts in ecosystems, species loss, sea level rise, drought, flood, etc.
This is not alarmism. This is what the evidence tells us.
Does this mean the end of the human race. Not at all. But it means a huge amount of suffering in those parts of the world that can’t buy there way out of the crisis or afford the infrustucture or investment necessary to effectively adapt to associated changes.
But don’t take my word for it, download the policy summary statement of the IPCC fourth assessment report and take the time to read it. It is not light reading, but it is far from unreadable. It is made for policy makers, not climate modellers.
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf
it makes for sober reading and every single sentence has been challenged and argued over to ensure that it meets the highest of evidence based standards at the time of writing.