Which is the better gauge of Trump?

The best gauge is his own words, and on that basis I can only presume that his supporters don’t understand simple English, don’t understand basic manners and propriety – really, discussing how large his “unnamed body part” is based on the size of his hands? – don’t care about his flip and generally disparaging, malicious and meaningless characterizations of his one-time opponents, don’t see through empty promises (“It’s gonna be great! You’re gonna love it!” – really? How, exactly? What will cause me to love whatever “it” is?) – or are so pissed off at everyone else who also makes empty, meaningless promises that it simply doesn’t even matter to them any more. And that’s the worst gauge of all, I’m afraid. (And the indicated one, because of course his supporters understand English, understand manners and propriety pretty well – because his support increases when he deliberately breaks those norms – enjoy his flip and disparaging remarks (because they make them, too, and his doing it out loud makes him seem like “one of them”), and completely see through empty promises and meaningless words – which is one of the bases for his support, I’m sure: they no longer care, because all politicians make promises that can’t be kept, but this one is at least “entertaining”).

People are indicating by the way they flock to this nutcase that they have essentially given up on any semblance of politics with meaning and serious intent to reach consensus, and want to elect a pile driver who will “get things done” – and they just expect him to do the right thing. Well, that’ll never happen.

The polls.

The stock market is a reflection of the Fed (artificially) keeping interests rates low.

The polls indicate that there is a constituency who simply no longer believe anything that the “political class”, of either party, tells them.

And who can blame them?

The Washington political class has power and money without having to do anything except stay in office. Members of either party are doing pretty well, regardless of who controls which branch of government. Why would any politician want to rock that boat?

@josie well then how about the market as a “poll” of the political and ruling classes?

@stanleybmanly

People aren’t investing in the market as a vote of confidence to the Fed. They are doing it, because it is the only place that money is growing at a reasonable rate. I am sure some concern about the Fed raising rates is already built into the market. If they raise rates significantly and suddenly, people will get out of the market. But that won’t be a vote of no confidence, it will be economic pragmatism.

@josie well then let’s consider this: if Trump is announced the nominee, how do you think the market will react?

@stanleybmanly

It would not have a reason to react one way or the other. The only way the market will have a bad reaction is if it is totally surprised by the outcome. And then it will recover. The long term trend is undeniable. If one is talking about timing buying or selling based on what you think a single election will do, good luck to them.

By the way, I noticed something in my first response that is sort of inaccurate.
It should read “The stock market is currently a reflection of the Fed (artificially) keeping interests rates low.”

The best gauge is your own good sound judgment about what this strutting egomaniac says and does. Stock market and poll numbers come and go… Hatred, racism and divisive rhetoric are forever.

@Pachy Well said sir!