Yes, I believe it will. We (Australia) introduced plain packaging for cigarettes in 2012. It was one of a long line of strategies successive governments have implemented to try to reduce the number of people who smoke. By coincidence, I saw figures for the rate of smoking in Australia the other day. I think the main target of this approach is to deter young people from smoking. I agree, it’s unlikely to stop long-term smokers.
Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows tobacco and cigarette consumption are at their lowest levels since they were recorded. This is measured through estimated expenditure on tobacco products. In 1959, expenditure was AU$5.135 billion. In December 2012, it was AU$3.508 billion and in March 2014, it was AU$3.405 billion.
Customs and excise have recorded tobacco clearances dropping by 11% since 2012 when plain packaging was introduced.
The Australian government relies on national surveys to measure smoking rates.
In 2014, the National Drug Strategy Household Survey found daily smokers aged 14 or older had dropped from 15.1% in 2010 to 12.8% in 2013.
Smokers 18 years or older dropped from 15.9% in 2010 to 13.3% in 2013.
The number of 18–24-year-olds who had never smoked rose from 72% in 2010 to 77% in 2013.
Plain packaging works in different ways. It makes the packaging less attractive to consumers. This is likely to be especially effective in minimising the marketing effects on young people. It’s not the only measure. It’s part of a suite of measures to try to deter people from smoking. Tobacco products also cost a lot more and you can’t smoke in any public buildings including restaurants, shopping centres, cinemas etc. You also can’t advertise tobacco products OR have marketing information in shops.
Some of the ways plain packaging works is to:
Enhance the effectiveness of health warnings (including the visibility of horrible pictures that show what smoking does to you).
Reduce the ability of tobacco companies to use their packaging to mislead consumers about the dangers of smoking.
Australia now has the lowest levels of smoking ever recorded. Plain packaging would appear to be part of that outcome. Certainly, tobacco companies don’t like it since they have tried to take legal action to get the legislation repealed. They were not successful.
This information comes from this document.
This discusses the actual plain packaging initiative and legal challenges to its use.