What can I invest in where fluctuations are highly dependent on politics?
Asked by
Walgt (
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July 13th, 2016
In 2008, when I was ten years old, instead of getting a part time job while going to school, I was interested in investing. In order for me to invest as a minor, my parents opened me a custodian brokerage account, and funded it with the minimum $25,000 requirement which I paid back from my profits.
Luckily, I picked a good time to start investing. In 2008, stocks were at all time lows which are perfect buying opportunities. I decided to invest in stock industries that were dependent on politics such as gun-stocks, war-stocks, private-prison-stocks, biotech, rebuilders, energy, medicine, etc..
I noticed that when there is even a hint of some form of regulation proposals for guns, stocks surge as gun consumers go out on a shopping frenzy. Military spending, hints of war, or in times of war, or passive aerial bombings that are going on right now in the middle east, result in the surge war stocks.
As an example, I bought $1,000 shares at $2 of the publically traded gun manufacturing company Smith and Wesson. As of 2016, the gun stock corp is up to $28.50, resulting in a nearly 400% return for me within 8 years. That is just one of many stocks I invested in. In addition, some are giving 8% dividend yields.
I’m looking to invest in alternative avenues other than the stock market that are also highly dependent on politics. Any suggestions?
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There are three other markets that have a high correlation with political activity, although they also react to other events:
1) Commodity futures
2) Sovereign debt instruments (bonds)
3) Foreign Exchange
Various commodities will fluctuate dependent on what is going on politically, most notably gold.
Bonds will fluctuate based on a country’s economy and the general policy of teh Central Bank.
Foreign Exchange is an excellent indicator of the relative strength of an economy.
All of these are investments that carry substantial risk, and require research to determine how you would invest given your own evaluation of the current political atmosphere.
Thanks.
What significance, if any, do market measurements of social sentiment have on evaluation of these markets?
With stocks, there are technical measurements that can be implemented to retrieve how many mentions of a product or service happen over social media. Tracking any and all mentions of everything that the company offers. With this, you can see if the mentions about any given company are trending more negatively or more positively. Even more granularly, you can filter mentions that are related to any given division of the company. For example, if an XYZ company also makes movies, you can see all of the mentions that are related to just the movies.
I guess it should technically work the same way, just with a different algorithm.
Get your news at http://www.gold-eagle.com/ You should draw out all the cash you can and buy pure silver ingots which you do not store in any commercial vault. IOW hide them at home.
Silver today is 20 bux an ounce, and gold is $1350. IOW one ounce of gold costs as much as 67.5 ounces of silver. Just a few weeks ago that ratio was near 75. It has been as high as 110 and as low as 30 in recent years. Suppose it goes to 34 and you swap your silver for gold: you just bought gold at half price. When the ratio goes up to 67.5 again, then you swap your gold for silver, locking in your profit. No matter what happens, you always have hard metal and you never pay a tax on your gains because you never sell for paper money. SOURCE
Don’t buy it all at one time. Study this. Swapping does not count because it’s “like for like”. If a dealer asks for ID, walk out.
Guns and ammo.
Railroads.
Marijuana stocks.
A new marijuana ETF is forming any day now.
I’m not listing it because that prevents speculator BS. But it’s easily found with Google.
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