I’ve been trying to talk myself out of it being a crisis since the election. Really.
Looking for any indication that the gravity of the position has registered with the soon to be president. Looking for an understanding that he won, and that battle is over. Looking for him to put people around him that compliment and extend his knowledge and skills, to cover the holes.
I hate taking a negative view. I had myself talked into different ways it could all work out as “normal” rather than historically memorable for the wrong reasons, most have either passed the boards or show zero indication of actually happening.
At some point we have to admit it’s this bad.
We’ve elected a professional troll and from all appearances, he either thinks that’s what people want from him and he’s content to play the part, or he’s truly narrow enough to believe everything is a business negotiation and he needs to maintain leverage in all things.
If I had to draw up betting odds right now on the gist of the Trump presidency:
40% he’s allowed to do his song and dance while other Republican leaders run most of the government. He tweets, he “saves” jobs by the hundreds. He tours and gets angry at the media, but he doesn’t make much policy. Everyone saves face by “doing what they do best”... this might have already been negotiated. Silver lining: only a crisis for the top job and the US position in the world… maybe even repairable… (hey I’m feeling pretty good now)
25% he’s impeached in the first two and a half years… I think there’s always going to be plenty of evidence if needed, so it’s really just whether or not enough Republicans distance themselves. I think those meetings have already happened and it will come down to public opinion. You can’t tell me John McCain and Paul Ryan don’t already have an exit plan. Silver lining: at least Mike Pence actually believes in his positions. I disagree with just about every one, but hey, it’s something.
20% he’s actually able to maintain full momentum and makes the country more like he’s promised. More like America in the early 20th century and 40’s – 50’s. This lines up with his focus on manufacturing, and xenophobia, but I can’t help thinking of robber barons and world war. Silver lining: This ignores history, but at least people get what they voted for.
10% The presidency just becomes another notch up the celebrity ladder. Publicity is what’s important, so not much happens that isn’t a big media focus. ACA gets repealed, because that’s the biggest story, construction on a wall starts (to be finished at some undetermined future time), but other than that we have four years of Russia-related news and innumerable photo ops and then he goes away to run his suddenly larger businesses. Silver lining: only 4 years?
5% Actually undeniably historically tragic. War, America being isolated, the use of nuclear weapons. Things like that.
Is that a crisis?
I don’t know how other people see this progressing, and I’d actually love to hear a realistic best case scenario that doesn’t make this at least a crisis for the presidency. I’m not saying the position was anything sacred, but it did feel like there was a certain esteem for the the president internationally that doesn’t seem to be conferred on Trump.