Will Venezuela become the next Syria / Ukraine?

Syria and Ukraine share a common aspect in that both countries faced outside pressures that led to civil war. In Ukraine’s case, outside coveret interests supported the extreme nationalists, leading to the overthrow of the last elected government. In Syria outside covert interests manipulated ethnic and sectarian differences in the current attempt to overthrow the elected regime. In Ukraine, the resistance to outside subversion came in the form of a regionally based resistance movement in the south east of the country. In Syria, resistance against outside subversion continues to be rooted around the currently elected regime.

If Venezuela faces outside subversion, it will initially take on aspects of Ukraine. The opposition, however, will not be motivated by nationalism. It will be motivated by class and perhaps regional identity. If the central government has to resort to more severe forms of control, the political conflict in Venezuela will look more like what is happening in Syria. In this case, the political opposition will be motivated by class and regional identity motives, not religious or ethnic.

The United States will covertly have a hand in this at this stage. It will probably use former right wing militia organizations in Columbia to carry out operations in Venezuela. This is the same concept of Isis, just a completely different ideology.

The interesting question is, would Cuba or any other outside country come to the aid of Venezuelan military?

The only thing putting restraint on those who would like to destroy Venezuela is the country’s OPEC status. It creates the awkward situation where the United States seeks overthrow of one OPEC country but leaves the rest alone.

Brian Ghilliotti