Would the United States intervene in a Venezuelan Civil War? (Lengthy)

If it did, it would most likely do so under an OAS umbrella, given the long and sensitive history of past US interventions in South America.

If it applies military force, the conflict could end up as another Libya, where the United States applies bombing pressure against the Maduro regime in favor of organic militant factions that emerge from the opposition. In this case, the United States may not be able to control the outcome, even with the central regime gone, just like Libya.

Or it can develop along the lines of a Syrian conflict, where the United States develops a proxy force, in this case right wing paramilitary groups with Colombian connections, and applies bombing pressure to support the proxy force.

In the second case, it is more likely that we will see foreign intervention, most likely from Cuba, in support of the Maduro regime. This will get quite dicey. Would US bombing hit Cuban troops assisting the Maduro government putting down rebels? How would the Russians or Chinese respond? Would the State of Florida find itself in a state of war?

A civil war in Venezuela could also form along the lines of Ukraine, where the government is driven out of power, but manages to cling to power in a certain section of the country, just like the Ukrainian separatists. In this case, however, I do not think the remnants of the Maduro regime would have a potentially friendly country to fall back on, like the Ukrainian separatists have with Russia. This would be the easiest option for the United States to conduct an intervention, in the form of a mop up operation, assuming no rival factions emerge.

The only friends I see Maduro having in this scenario would be some remnants of the Colombian leftist rebel groups that want to still continue fighting and feel sympathetic for Maduro. If Colombia successfully seals the border, these Colombian former rebels would have to infiltrate through northern Brazil.

In this scenario, Maduro will only be able to survive if multiple factions emerge once he is out of power that end up fighting each other, and the United States cannot control them.

Supposedly, Venezuela is about to go broke. If that does happen, and Maduro cannot continue to pay his security forces, we will have to wonder how much of his military and police forces will simply desert.

Perhaps this is a strategy of the opposition. They realize that deployment of his security forces to contain the mobs costs considerable financial resources, and they hope to keep continuos demonstration pressure against Maduro’s regime to hasten its bankruptcy and the subsequent collapse of Maduro’s security forces.

In this case, Maduro can only rely on his militias. It is quietly likely that we will see mass looting of weapons following a collapse of Maduro’s security forces, an outcome similar to Libya.

If this happens in combination with multiple rival factions emerging from the power vacuum, it is more likely that the US will not deploy land forces, except to secure on shore oil facilities. It will resort to bombing the military factions it does not like, just like what we are doing in Libya. Beyond this, US military operations will primarily rely on covert means.

It is possible that Maduro may see outside loans to stave off a complete financial collapse of his state. If this happens through a loan offered by the BRICS banking system (instead of the traditional globalist dominated world banking institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, etc) this will probably be one of the five most significant events of human history that have happened up to now. It will be the first time that the rival global (B)RICS banking system (Brazil is no longer part of BRICS) has used financial resources to counter the interests of the globalist dominated banking systems.

In this scenario, the United States (or atleast the deep state) will be FUMING mad, and trust me, people will die. In this scenario, it is quite possible that the United States will scrap whatever military assets it can to initiate a “Monday morning war” (meaning people in America wake up and see the headlines of a massive bombing campaign against Venezuela and say “Where the f@ck did this come from?”). I wonder if they will even take the time to come up with a BS fake news story to justify it before carrying out such an operation?

One of the few things restraining military action against Venezuela is the fact that it is a part of OPEC. It creates a politically awkward situation where the US is bombing an OPEC nation, though the US more or less gets along with the other OPEC nations. However, these OPEC nations may not feel comfortable with the fact that the United States is bombing a fellow OPEC member.

I do not think this situation will last for long, as I see Venezuela ultimately leaving OPEC and not using the US dollar for world trading. This will most likely happen if the (B)RICS provide loans to Venezuela.

There will be a massive refugee crisis in surrounding nations should a civil war in Venezuela become protracted, especially if Maduro’s regime is reduced to a fighting faction amoungst several fighting factions. This will inevitably spread the conflict, as right wing and left wing militant factions could try too seek recruitment and replenishments from these populations. I think refugees will figure out that going to Colombia will be very dangerous, as there they will be nothing more than “sign up or die” cannon fodder for left wing or right wing militant groups. It will be interesting to see how Brazil will exert control over it is northern border provinces if Venezuela rebel factions seek sanctuary there.

What do you think?

I conclude this article with the following link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ovV8UFk1m0

Will be be Fallujah all over again should US troops move into Venezuela? We’ll see…maybe nothing will happen.

Brian Ghilliotti