How well did the polls predict the outcome of the election yesterday in the UK?
Please, do not include the exit poll.
I loosely followed the campaigning in the UK for yesterday’s election. I did not follow the polls at all. I remember hearing that the Tories had a sizable favorability rating at the outset that faded. The opposite happened to Labour who went from low favorability ratings to higher ones.
Did the polls point to a hung Parliament? Did they predict a resurgent Labour? Did they anticipate the losses suffered by the Tories? Two high-profile members of the Scottish National Party lost their seats. Was that predicted?
I’m curious, because I’m wondering what the poll-makers have learned from their mistakes in the Brexit campaign and the 2016 US Presidential race.
I’m also curious, because today’s Guardian news reports that everyone at the Labour HQ were surprised at the outcome of a hung Parliament. In other words, their polling did not predict it.
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LOL, Not very well, from what I understand. Madam Prime Minister was quite surprised by the results yesterday.
Then both the Tories and Labour were surprised, meaning they did not have good polling information.
As far as I am aware the exit poll was a big surprise. Throughout the campaign Labour gained ground, especially as Theresa May didn’t go to live televised debates and send another minister instead. This really weakened her position, but it wasn’t predicted to this extent. Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, is very unpopular with other politicians but seems to be popular with the public. I hesitate to say this, but I thinks it’s a bit like Trump – someone who is not part of the establishment.
I nearly voted Labour – I haven’t voted for them since Tony Blair took us into war with Iraq – but voted for the Liberals instead. It doesn’t matter as I live in a safe conservative seat so my vote makes no difference.
The pre election polls produced a variety of results but the consensus was a solid win for the Conservatives. Jeremy Corbyn was written off by the media and the pundits but they underestimated his appeal. Corbyn has been involved in politics most of his adult life and he has been passionate and consistent in his views throughout. He is not to be compared with an unpredictable anti establishment figure like Trump. Corbyn has been a Member of Parliament for over 30 years representing Islington North.
@imrainmaker still going ahead. Maybe Theresa May will tame her ideas of a hard Brezit since this is why she went to the ballot – to get support for the hard brexit. She didn’t get it so her mandate now is not a hard brexit, in my opinion
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