What do you use to understand public opinion instead of polls?

The problem with polls is the methodology. Some are good and some are not.
So like any data, I look at polls sometimes, but I take them with a grain of salt. Usually I filter it through something like fivethirtyeight.com. I’m a big Nick Silver fan as they are big fans of Bayesian methodology. I have “Bayesian” as my religious preference on Facebook.

I am similar to @Rarebear, in that I don’t check individual polls, and don’t seek them out most of the time. I do read reports on polls regarding specific elections, and I use five thirty eight because they mute the outliers.

Too many polls are speculative and often incomplete, yet they get reported upon.

The thing to keep on mind is the reason WHY there are so very many polls and the actual essential function they play in our daily lives. Polls are mandatory for the manipulation of public attitudes and opinions. Don’t be fooled into thinking yourself immune, or worse, pride yourself on harboring the illusion that you ignore the polls. We’re like monkeys in a zoo, secure in the belief that we are not being manipulated by our handlers. And that is just what those handlers prefer.

Do any of you have some sense of where the majority of the country stands on something like…

- the legalization of marijuana
– Donald Trump (do people think of him favorably?)

?

If so, is this sense based on visiting fivethirtyeight.com on a regular basis? @stanleybmanly – If you have some sense, do you just go with your gut?

I would caution you about using this site as an example of public opinion. It’s not. There’s nothing wrong with using public opinion polls to get a feel for the mood of the electorate on any given subject. Just bear in mind that it is easily skewed by the wording of the question and that it is only a snapshot in time. For instance, you want to know how the country feels about Legalization of pot. Wide disparity from state to state and the population of California would skew the results so that a national average wouldn’t mean much.

Election results give you a good feel for whether the polling was accurate.

@thisismyusername in the war of ideas, it’s always difficult to determine exactly where things sit regarding the national consensus on issues. But there is little question regarding the trend toward the legalization of marijuana as well as the revision of attitudes around the criminality of addiction. As a practical matter, for those jurisdictions resisting the legalization of weed, there aren’t going to be enough jail cells to house the offenders. Trump is a real beaut as a signpost on public opinion.

I have no idea where the consensus on Trump lies, however I DO know that he is so far beyond the pale that anyone with the temerity to deny his blatant defects is perforce declaring themselves defective.

@stanleybmanly: “I have no idea where the consensus on Trump lies”

No idea? So, if someone were to say that 90% of the country has a favorable view of Trump, you’d just shrug and say, “that’s possible, I suppose”?

Let me put it this way. To date it doesn’t matter how severe or openly obvious the defects are. As @Jaxk stated, the poll that counts is the big one in November 2016. There is the hope that the stench from Trump wafting over everything Republican will cost the GOP
the House, Senate or both in November. The timing of Mueller’s upcoming revelations will matter in those elections. The stench behind that should be all but overpowering. But even then it would pay to keep in mind H L Mencken’s great corollary “no one ever lost money through underestimating the taste of the American public”.

By the way, another of Mencken’s little gems:

on some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their hearts’ desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.

I think you’re reading way too much into my question. I’m specifically interested in how you think about any position, and how common you believe that position to be. It can be anything.

This is the first I have come across someone who doesn’t have some internal estimate about how favorable a particular candidate is viewed or how many people support the legalization of marijuana, etc.

If I understand you correctly, it never crosses your mind. You never consider what any group of people think of a candidate or position. You have your opinion, and others might have another. In general, you believe that elections reflect the thoughts on a candidate (at that time, despite the fact that about 50% of voting population votes). But it doesn’t concern you what people think after or before an election.

Am I correct?

No you are not. I can guess what the overall attitude is on national issues, but because I live in a local or regional
bubble, dominated by similar attitudes, a guess is all I have. And of course these issues concern me. Who in their right mind could remain indifferent to the claim that Trump’s irregularities are mere inventions of the left? I think I have addressed the 2 examples you offered, dope and Trump. My opinion on dope is that in 20 years marijuana will be legal or irrelevant due to the arrival of designer drug alternatives. The national acceptance of pot is clearly on the uptick. And let me try to explain what I mean regarding the consensus on Trump. There is no question that the dominant opinion in the country is that Trump is defective. The opinion that is unobtainable is on whether it matters.

@stanleybmanly: “And of course these issues concern me. Who in their right mind could remain indifferent to the claim that Trump’s irregularities are mere inventions of the left?”

We’re not talking about Trump or marijuana in any way at all. I’m clearly failing to communicate that.

You did however, answer my question….

@stanleybmanly: “I can guess what the overall attitude is on national issues, but because I live in a local or regional bubble, dominated by similar attitudes, a guess is all I have.”

You guess.

@stanleybmanly: “The national acceptance of pot is clearly on the uptick.”

And this statement is based on…

@stanleybmanly: “a guess is all I have”

That’s all I have been talking about – what data does one use to make statements about public opinion.

you asked specifically “do any of you have some sense on where the majority of the country stands on something like….
the legalization of marijuana
—Donald Trump

My attitude on the growing acceptance of dope is based on the accelerating trend toward its legalization at the state level, as well as the inertia toward relaxed attitudes with the die off of those who didn’t grow up with the stuff.

No data is required to make a statement about public opinion-that of course is the problem. One is obligated to soak up as much information as possible regarding other regions of the country from diverse sources, credible and otherwise.

This may be the strangest discussion I have ever been involved in.

Anyway, thanks for input.