Do you think Trump is trying to reduce the trade deficit by imposing taxes on importers and people who buy imported goods in the form of tariffs?

On the supply side; grain and produce numbers are DROPPING for USA farmers.

So, no it is will not reduce deficit because we have reduce what is being sold to China and others impacted by tariffs.

It is not clear what the net effect of trade wars is going to be. Foreign tariffs will cut American exports. Additionally, many domestic companies have become dependent on foreign goods that will cost more, due to tariffs. If the companies absorb the costs, their profits and taxes paid will diminish. If they raise prices, the consumer will be paying more for domestic goods.

There is also the factor that tariffs reduce overall output, because they interfere with the free market incentive for countries to produce what they can produce most efficiently.

Trade wars are very complex with many macroeconomic forces at play. I’m smart enough to know that I don’t know enough to reason about how this will play out. I can say that it’s very likely that Trump knows even less about this than I do, so I don’t love our odds.

I’m looking at this as a numbers game only. They kind of thing the Tweeter in CVhief likes to taut. “We reduced the Deficit by $XYZ billion this year. The best ever!
For round number let’s say we import $1 trillion worth of goods and export $500 billion. That gives us a trade deficit of 500 billion. If the tariffs halve our imports and halve our exports that means our trade deficit is: Imports(1 trillion/2) or 500 billion – Exports(500 billion/2) or 250 = 250 billion down from 500 billion. Plus the Feds add 20% of 1 trillion or 200 billion to the Treasury effectively taxing the people who buy foreign goods.
He can tweet that he reduced the deficit from 500 B to 250 B – without mentioning the damage to the economy. Would people be swayed by that or would they be aware it is made up?
I am betting he will make a tweet that looks like this in about a month and a half, Oct. 15, just before the elections. He’ll multiply the numbers by 10 to make it an annual amount.
Anyone want to bet against me?

@LuckyGuy Remember that the balance of trade is also inversely related to foreign investment. This means that if our trade deficit shrinks by x, the amount of dollars coming in from foreign countries to invest in our companies and bonds will also decrease by x.

Trade is also influenced by international policies, like sanctions, military agreements, and overall production of a traded good. Different ME nations, and OPEC, manipulate production, to manipulate market value for oil.

Countries can also manipulate the value of their currency (like China) and affect things that way too.

It’s very complex. And there are many parties, who add many more variables.

@gorillapaws Absolutely true. But that will not be included in the tweetfest. I’m betting he will only quote that number which I do believe (right or wrong) will go down temporarily until the elections.

People are more likely to vote based on their personal circumstances than statistical film flam. Ronald Reagan understood that very well when he asked people if they were better off than they were four years ago.

These tariffs are there to pay for the wall. In effect the U.S. peole in the long run are paying for that wall.

It seems that in EACH case, the American consumer, will pay for ALL tariffs.

^ @MrGrimm888 You are correct. The tariffs are ultimately paid by the consumer – unless they don’t buy the products. Think of them as a tax on imports.

They are only effective if they are in place a long time so manufacturers here can invest in new equipment and ramp up production.

I would not bet against you @LuckyGuy . I think we can look forward to such a tweet. I also think that when he does there will be a flurry of information flying out to contradict what he is saying but that it will not matter since most of it will be more than 140 characters and thus beyond the level of comprehension or caring of all of his supporters and a large swath of undecided voters.

Rather that try to show Trump is lying with truthful data and information that proves this they should just tweet out responses like : “Trump lying AGAIN, manipulating numbers and blowing smoke” At least they will take the time to read that.

Most Trumpers, are beyond help.

I wonder if Trump with be sainted, when he passes?....

Not with the present fake pope in office.

This is being answered as we speak. the big T just admitted prices will go up for consumers.
He delayed some increases until after December so he doesn’t appear to look like the Grinch Who Stole Christmas.

Since there are no alternatives for most items the tariffs will do nothing except make consumers pay more for Chinese imports. Maybe it will slow spending – and get the recession ball rolling,