The price of chocolate isn’t exactly going to hell in an easter handbasket.
https://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/CC.html
Current cocoa futures are flat to declining; prices (in actively traded months) have hovered close to USD2500 per ton despite the June 2019 “cartel” announcement that they wont sell below USD2600.
If they want to make significantly more money from cocoa production they would need to set up processing plants, cf Indonesia.
https://www.barchart.com/story/futures/quotes/CC*0/futures-prices/4184200/cocoa-prices-close-lower-on-abundant-cocoa-supplies
Excerpt:
Mar ICE NY cocoa (CCH20) on Monday closed down -35 (-1.39%), and Mar ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH20) closed down -40 (-2.19%).
Cocoa prices retreated Monday with London cocoa falling to a 1-week low. Data showing ample cocoa supplies pressured cocoa prices on Monday. Cocoa supplies from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, are abundant after the Ivory Coast government reported Monday that Ivory Coast farmers sent 84,067 MT of cocoa to ports during Dec 30-Jan 5, up +20.7% y/y. Also, Ivory Coast farmers sent a cumulative total of 1.251 MMT of cocoa to ports during Oct 1-Jan 5, up +10.7% y/y.
Cocoa prices were also undercut by the Ghana Cocoa Board’s report on Monday that it purchased 496,217 MT of cocoa from farmers during Oct 1— Dec 26, up +8.9% y/y.
Cocoa inventories in storage have tightened as ICE-monitored cocoa inventories have trended lower over the past six months and posted a 3-year low of 2.688 million bags Dec 26.
Another supportive factor for cocoa prices is the start of seasonal Harmattan winds that have reduced beneficial rain in West Africa and may curb Ivory Coast and Ghana cocoa yields. Satellite imagery from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center for Dec 29-Jan 4 showed little or no rainfall across most of the Ivory Coast and Ghana.
The longer-term outlook for reduced cocoa supply from Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, is supportive for cocoa prices. The Ghana Cocoa Board on Sep 13 cut its Ghana 2019/20 cocoa production estimate to a 3-year low of 800,000 MT from a previous estimate of 950,000 due to an outbreak of the swollen shoot cocoa disease that has affected about 16% of Ghana’s cocoa crop.