Ask anyone who follows polls and they’ll tell you the same thing. There is a “convention bounce”, but that effect is temporary. Clearly they think that by showing “compassion” and turning their convention into an “altruistic” call to service it is going to more than make up for what they lose by compressing the convention, and that may well be the case. A convention is after all nothing more than a 4 day commercial, and hey, a 3 day commercial where you demonstrate self sacrifice is probably just about as good. The big “danger” is that they have to retool their message, which gives them a bit less time to present a coherent and unified front, which is the cornerstone of the Republican strategy. . But they’re pretty good at towing the party line…even though we KNOW that if the Democrats had picked a candidate like Palin (1.5 years as governor of the 3rd least populous state, a state with a population smaller than 40% of the counties in the US), the same people who are now pushing the “commander in chief of the Alaskan National Guard line) would have been scoffing at how Obama could have POSSIBLY found someone with even less experience than HE has.
So, the VP candidate who is a strong proponent of abstinence only based sex education having a 17 year old daughter who is 5 months pregnant, which would be a HUGE scandal if it were a Democrat in the same position, is an example of how steadfast she is in her values…they’re getting married and keeping the baby after all! Essentially the convention is a wholly partisan affair…about the only time the parties can really let it all hang out and say for the most part what they really think about the other party, which is what the partisans are hungry for, there are a small number of independents who will look to the conventions and who will be swayed by whomever puts forth the most persuasive argument (which doesn’t necessarily mean the argument that makes the most sense or adheres the best to the truth and logic). So, yes, the convention, even if it’s one day long instead of 4 will by virtue of the fact that the Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates get to put forth their arguments to the American people in a setting where any dissent is essentially drowned out due to lack of interest in anything but the big show on the part of the media.
But as I said in my first paragraph, no matter how much it moves the numbers, even if the message of self sacrifice to help our fellow man builds a temporary image of “they really care”, it won’t wipe out the damage done by the government’s response to Katrina and Rita in the long run, and no matter how successful the convention message is at moving the numbers, it’s a temporary, but still inevitable bounce. What you can expect is that the numbers, barring any more big surprises from either side, if we should have a week after the last day of the RNC where it’s just campaigning, any bounce from the conventions will have evened out, and you’ll really be able to see where the race actually is. I’d say until the conventions and the VP picks are stale news, it’s going to be hard to really understand what is going on, but say a week from Wednesday, we’ll start to know whether Palin was a good or bad answer to Biden and which convention was ultimately the more successful.
To be honest, I’d expect the race to revert to a dead heat about a week after the convention is over, and to stay that way until election day, at which point I think it will come down to Obama outperforming all expectations.