Could Government have produced a covid-19 vaccine and proved its effectiveness in nine months?

The US government? No… A well managed and competent government could have but not the US government.

Governments don’t do things like manufacture vaccines. They only fund such efforts in the public interest.

Government agencies move very fast when they are new and have a clearly defined set of goals. They move more slowly over time due to things like mission creep and loss of efficiency. It’s one reason that we would probably be better off with fewer permanent agencies and more temporary commissions. But the real advantage that the private companies had in this case is that there are a lot of them, and only one had to succeed.

If the government was hiring multiple teams of independent researchers and making them compete against each other, the process might have been able to go just as fast. With full information sharing, it might have even gone faster (since private companies have no incentive to share their innovations with competitors). That would be a bigger public investment, however, which would make it harder to achieve in the current political climate.

But like @zenvelo said, governments like our own are typically not involved in the actual manufacturing of vaccines. Instead, they fund both private and public research projects in the hopes of advancing science, technology, and human wellbeing indirectly.

HIV was identified by our scientists at NIH! WTH?!

The government is funding pharma for the vaccines, although I think Pfizer isn’t part of the government task force for vaccines.

A friend of mine is a bio-medical engineer for a private company. A lot of the work they do receives government funding, or actually the government asks for something to be developed often for the military.

@JLeslie Government has deep pockets and lack of accountability. Engineers who work for private companies have little or no protection against being fired, and budgets are set in stone. Therefore, it is difficult for government to compete. A good example is space flight. With NASA every mission was a disaster-in-waiting. With Spacex, missions have become routine.

There is a role for government. BUT throwing billions at a problem does not always solve it.

@crazyguy That’s correct to some extent. It doesn’t change that government is often involved in developing a lot of good things.

The biggest problem in both the public and private sector is lack of integrity. Budgets are often larger than necessary, profits are at gouging levels, non-profit and government just make sure they spend all the money whether they need to or not.

There is problems in both sectors.

@JeSuisRickSpringfield Are you located in France?

A government agency starts out with one objective: to propagate itself. A secondary objective is growth. Since a brand new mission like developing a covid vaccine involves a lot of uncertainty, government money is needed if the sequential nature of activities is to be circumvented. However, it is hard to motivate people without the prospect of massive profits.

Therefore, you may need both. BUT, my experience is that governments muck up almost everything they try to do themselves.

@JLeslie “profits are at gouging levels” = have you heard the expression “whatever the market will bear”. Name one company or one individual who would not like to be FIRST with a solution to a problem. And if the person/institution is indeed first, what is “reasonable” profit?

@crazyguy Yes, but we do have gouging laws. If you think we should not have gouging laws that is another Q I guess. I think the gouging laws to apply to healthcare just like any natural disaster. I seriously think about bringing the idea to some lawyers.

@zenvelo Governments do make stuff, but not necessarily vaccines. A good example is NASA.

Government funding is essential for risky projects and/or time-sensitive projects. However, the principal driving force for a company is PROFIT. And government funding can and does sometimes curtail that incentive.

@Lightlyseared I tend to agree with you that a government that is fleetfooted, more so than the US Government, could perform as well as private industry. However, how would you incentivize the right kind of people in any government?

@JLeslie I am not familiar with “gouging laws”. Would rent control be an example?

The question is moot since the government isn’t allowed to produce a vaccine. And you want to talk about taxpayer dollars? The government does the research at taxpayer expense then hands that research over FREE to the pharmaceutical corporations that utilize it to manufacture drugs for sale at inflated prices to American suckers for twice the price in Canada. It’s another splendid lesson on the privatization of profit and the socialization of expenses!

@crazyguy Here is the Wikipedia, you can scroll down to the laws for a brief overview.

@JLeslie Thanks for the link. I did scroll down to the laws. The laws apply during a declared emergency or a disaster. “The price protection lasts for up to 30 days at a time and may be renewed as necessary.[11] Since October 2017, then-California Governor Jerry Brown repeatedly extended the price-gouging ban for counties impacted by the October 2017 wildfires and subsequently for the counties impacted by the 2018 wildfires.[16] One of his last acts as governor was to extend the price protections until May 31, 2019.”

Conventional rent control is not considered an anti-gouging law.

From Wikipedia: “Statutes generally give wide discretion not to prosecute. In 2004, Florida determined that one-third of complaints were unfounded, and a large fraction of the remainder was handled by consent decrees, rather than prosecution.”

Sounds like a typical toothless tiger.

No, the government couldn’t have done it in 9 months. Just because Pfizer says it is ready, it doesn’t necessarily mean that is a true fact. They have also said that they still need to give a 2nd round of shots to the control group and wait for 2 more months before they will know anything for sure. They’ve been working on the flu shot all my life and it’s still not perfected, so there’s no reason for me to feel excited over anything that big pharma has to say. They have been paid to make the US government look good and that is exactly what they are doing

Trump and company trying to jump on the . . . good new . . . ANOTHER LIE from Trump.

Dr Kathrin Jansen, Pfizer’s head of vaccine development, told the New York Times: “We were never part of the Warp Speed… ’ We have never taken any money from the US government, or from anyone.

Trusting big pharma is more dangerous than trusting trump

I’m pretty sure that Pfizer has a vaccine and also pretty sure if Trump or his minions move their lips they are lying !

I don’t doubt that they have a vaccine. I do doubt that it’s 90% effective. I don’t doubt that they’d lie to us about its effectiveness. I have absolutely no doubt that whenever this administration’s mouths move that they are all lying

The Pfizer group did not use or get any of Trump’s “Warp Speed” money.

Trump’s crew is claiming “Warp Speed” helped get the vaccine so quickly, only another lie!

Is crazyguy looking for praise for Trump? Okay here you go. Good job Trump!

Now concede. You have 72 days to GTFO.

All, thanks for your responses.

1. If Pfizer lied in their press release, we’ll soon know, won’t we?
2. Pfizer got no Federal money to develop the vaccine or for their studies. However, they did receive $1.95 billion of federal money in July for 100 million doses of the vaccine if it was approved by the FDA.

@johnpowell

Is that like “Get the F#!&%K Out of Dodge” ?

The vaccine announced today did not come from the government .

@crazyguy

In regards to your NASA/Space-X comparison – Space-X isn’t in business without funding from NASA. Nor has NASA ever manufactured any of its vehicles. That has always been done through private companies contracting with NASA.

That’s what our government does – it conducts or funds research and development, then contracts (or gives away) with private companies for manufacturing.

@filmfann And your point is….?

I stand corrected about NASA. I had assumed that the government would not contract out such sensitive technology, but I was wrong. I apologize.

Eh, I’m not sure that anything NASA does is particularly sensitive, in terms of national security or anything. Particularly given how much they work with other space and scientific agencies around the world.

But yeah, they’ve always contracted with private companies to build what they use. I believe the lunar module used in the Apollo program was primarily built by Grumman. The orbiter in the Space Shuttle was mainly the work of Rockwell International (with other companies, like Morton-Thiokol, handling specific components, such as the O-ring seals which infamously failed during the Challenger disaster). If I’m not mistaken the lunar module to be used in the Artemis program has been contracted to Boeing and Lockheed Martin, but I could be wrong there.

Everyone knows that Tang was invented by General Foods. Governments can’t invent that!

I just read that Pfizer took no government money for the development of the vaccine and was not a part of Operation Warp Speed.

@janbb Thanks for confirming that, I made mention of it above, but was not 100%.

@JLeslie @janbb You are both right – and wrong. You are right that Pfizer took no money for vaccine development. However, it did take $1.95 billion for producing 100 million doses of the vaccine for OWP.

@crazyguy Ah. That makes sense.

@crazyguy How much money did you take from Putin ? ?

The company behind that vaccine is based in Germany, and received half a billion in funding from Berlin for the development.
So I call dibs.

Remember, the vaccine must ultimately be tested on humans and long term results are needed.
They can make the juice quickly (x million doses) but cannot hurry the long term testing. There might be side effects that show up down the road. That is why clinical trials are always needed.

Nine women cannot make a baby in one month. You cannot rush or hurry the process when human physiology is involved. No matter how politically expedient it may be.

@LuckyGuy If the next couple of months look good regarding side effects and at least 50% immunity they will probably move forward to distribute fairly quickly.

The problem with that vaccine, that I saw on the news today, is that it has to be kept at -90 degrees F. It will be shipped in glass vials in a box and the box can only be opened twice a day, in the doctor’s office. If those directions are not followed, the doses can be ruined. Of course, then how would one know that their doses were ruined? Not until they receive the vaccine and it doesn’t work and they contract the virus. Sounds like a very finicky vaccine.

@ragingloli You are right that BioNTech received funding from the German government. However you are incorrect in stating “for development”. The funding of $445 million was “to help accelerate the vaccine by building out manufacturing and development capacity in its home market.” The funds were given in September while the US funds were given in July.

@crazyguy You obviously have an agenda here but it’s not clear to me what it is. What about this is getting your knickers in a twist?

@LuckyGuy @JLeslie You are correct about the need for testing on humans. If interim safety data is positive, Pfizer/BioNTech will be issued an Emergency Use Authorization by the FDA. When the second milestone is hit in the Phase III study and safety data is not adverse, there may be consideration of full FDA approval. The interim evaluation that was supposed to occur after 32 positives in the study population was eliminated after discussions with the FDA. Instead, a decision was made to wait until there were 62 positives. By the time the decision came, the number of positives had reached 92. So the current finding of >90% efficacy is based on 92 positives.

The study endpoint will be reached when there are 164 positives. At that point an application will be submitted to the FDA for full approval.

At that point, the clinical Phase 3 study will end. But safety monitoring will continue “for an additional two years after their second dose.”

See
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against

@jca2 You are correct. The vaccine needs to be maintained at -70C, which is -94F. However, I am not sure about “the box can only be opened twice a day,” What I am finding is that at -94F, the vaccine can be stored for “up too six months”. The vaccine can also be stored “for five days at 2–8 degrees C – a type of refrigeration commonly available at hospitals”.

See
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-distribut/why-pfizers-ultra-cold-covid-19-vaccine-will-not-be-at-the-local-pharmacy-any-time-soon-idUSKBN27P2VI

@crazyguy: About the box only being able to be opened twice a day I heard on The Today Show this morning. I’ll see if I can find a link.

@crazyguy: Here’s the link to an article that mentions the storage (at the bottom of the article):
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-distribut/why-pfizers-ultra-cold-covid-19-vaccine-will-not-be-at-the-local-pharmacy-any-time-soon-idUSKBN27P2VI

@jca2 From your link (which was also my link):

“They can be kept in an ultra-low temperature freezer for up to six months, or for five days at 2–8 degrees C – a type of refrigeration commonly available at hospitals…”

@crazyguy: From my link ”Without the extra equipment, doctors will have a dilemma: store vaccines in standard refrigerators and deploy all 975 doses in each Pfizer vaccine container in less than five days or restock them with dry ice and open them only twice a day to extend the vaccines’ life span, Hannan said.”

Like I said, in a box that can only be opened twice a day.

@jca2 I did find the statement you referred to. Good thing is that LARGE ultra-cold refrigeration equipment is available for just a few thousand dollars. Even the most cash-strapped hospitals and states may be able to scrounge up that kind of dough.

@crazyguy: Do you think that if every nursing home, health clinic, doctor’s office and hospital is looking for specialty refrigeration equipment, there might be a shortage?

@jca2 My understanding is that most doctor’s offices, nursing homes, health clinic and hospitals have refrigeration, which is all you need for up to 5 days. I imagine Operation Warp Speed is more aware of the requirements and which ones may need to be supplemented than we are.

My bet is that the government could easily produce a covid vaccine in 9 months IF the government were willing to assign the necessary priority to the project. You have to recall that at one time the government of the United States took an abstract and unproven theory all the way from mere speculation to a functioning atomic bomb.

Imagine if there was some sort of federal production act that could be used in desperate times to pay private companies to produce goods and services needed in a national emergency.

Now imagine that six months ago there had been some sort of group of people tasked with the aforementioned national emergency. We could call them a “task force”. We already have the space force, the logo just needs a word swapped out.

Now imagine this task force pinned all their hopes on a vaccine and did absolutely nothing else “except destroy once stellar reputations… Hi Mrs. Birx!!”

It was known months and months and months ago that refrigeration would be a problem. It is absurd that the task force couldn’t have paid truckloads to Sears/Kenmore to bang out some cold ass freezers. Nullify patents, give Luckyguy a week with one of these super cold freezers to reverse engineer it. Kenmore makes them. We have three freezers in our house. The tech has been known for a long time.

Walmart has you covered for distribution. Tons of space in stores and they already give out a billion flu shots to undeserved communities.

This should have been a solved problem. Only gross malcompatance can explain the failure.

@crazyguy: It’s not just any old refrigeration like the kind you have in your kitchen that they need. It’s a special freezer that can freeze to minus 90 degrees Fahrenheit.

The temperature of “Dry Ice” is required for storage ! Minus 90 degrees Fahrenheit.

I think it’s not a terrible thing that distribution will be “slow” at first. Phase 4 testing sometimes shows side effects not seen before the drug comes to market. I believe the drug will be overall safe, it has been tested on a very large sample of people, but if people with certain problems start having bad side effects, it will become more apparent when it is finally being given to the general population.

@johnpowell You have assumed that there is a problem before any have appeared. Did you watch the 60 minutes episode on Sunday about Operation Warp Speed?

@jca2 Please read my post agin. For up to FIVE DAYS, refrigeration to 2–8 deg C is adequate.

@JLeslie Phase 4 Testing? That is a new one on me. Unless you mean after FDA approval?

@crazyguy Yes, after. Basically, they monitor the drug once it goes to market.

@JLeslie That is what I thought. I did not know that is referred to as Phase 4 testing.

I agree that many harmless products like artificial sweeteners get taken off the market years after obtaining FDA approval. However, if we can take the risk for something as innocuous as artificial sweeteners, surely it is worth the gamble on something as critical as a covid vaccine?

@crazyguy The vaccine was given to thousands of people already, so it’s a good bet that if the next few weeks everyone is doing ok and they show string antibodies that the vaccine is a safe and effective.

A doctor or individual can always report an adverse reaction on a VAERS form. The vaccine might be 50 years on the market, but what if a batch is bad (highly unusual) or what if a pattern starts to show regarding people with certain underlying conditions.

@JLeslie The study included tracking of actual cases of covid developing among the study subjects. At one time, I believe there was consideration of deliberately exposing test subjects to the virus. However, that is not what happened. Instead, the subjects were divided into two groups; one group received the vaccine, the second one received a placebo. Then they were free to go about their normal lives. When a certain number of positives appeared in the group (Moderna just reached their interim milestone yesterday) an analysis was performed. I imagine the analysis is straightforward. The calculated effectiveness of the vaccine is simply a percentage calculated as follows: Number of positives that received the placebo/Total number of positivesX100%. Another way of reaching the same result is (100-number of positives that received the vaccine)/Total number of positives.

@crazyguy I know. There is a study being done purposefully exposing test subjects to covid, I don’t remember which one. I don’t think it’s an American company.

@JLeslie WOW! Russian roulette.

@JLeslie As usual, your recollection is spot-on! I thought such a study would be in some 3rd world country. But no, it is in the UK!

See
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/10/20/925723045/u-k-preparing-covid-19-vaccine-trials-that-deliberately-infect-study-subjects

I mean, participation is completely voluntary, and people know the risks.
And you do need to test the effectiveness of a vaccine on people.
There is only so much you can do in a lab with animals.
And surely it is better to test it on a small group first, instead of immediately vaccinating millions of people.

@crazyguy: ”Once the Pfizer coolers reach their destinations, hospitals or pharmacies will have a few choices of how to store the vaccine. The easiest option is using ultracold freezers, but not many sites have them. Otherwise, the facilities can stash the trays in conventional freezers for up to five days. Or they can keep the vials in the cooler for up to 15 days, so long as they replenish the dry ice and don’t open it more than twice a day.”

Like I said, the boxes can’t be opened more than twice a day.

Cut and pasted from this NY Times article https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/12/business/pfizer-covid-vaccine-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

@jca2 That is just one of the options.

Usually, exposing volunteers to the contagion is done when there are reasonably good treatments available or low risk of serious harm. I would guess they are only exposing very healthy young adults.

@JLeslie Obviously! They are not going to deliberately expose somebody who has a good chance of dying!