In your opinion, what is it going to take to get Covid19 under control?

Here in the states it’s too late. Now, the best that can be done is to personally hide from the virus if at all possible and await the vaccines.

You really think it’s that out of control @stanleybmanly ?
Plus it could be late next year before vaccines become public,that’s a long time.

As soon as the majority get it, and develop immunity, it will come under control.

So your going with the herd immunity thing?^^

@SQUEEKY2 Herd immunity is all that’s left, and out of control is the only accurate description, And there is no such thing as “that out of control”. It’s like “that pregnant” or “that dead”. Since infections have doubled here in the last 2 weeks, it is no exaggeration to conclude the obvious.

@Dutchess_III There is no reaching herd immunity without a vaccine.

Natural immune response doesn’t last long enough.

Even if you somehow infected over 60% of the population, it would mean hospital ICU capacity being completely overwhelmed, and people simply being left to die because there’s not enough resources or healthcare professionals to treat them.

And with more people being left to die without treatment, you get a worse survival rate.

Herd immunity is how all viral illnesses are controlled. This is a new one though.

What does under control mean? Lower the numbers? Completely gone? Life back to normal?

@Dutchess_III

“Herd immunity is how all viral illnesses are controlled.” without vaccine that will mean 5 to 8 million DEAD Americans.

@Dutchess_III I don’t think that’s right.

Here’s a list of some viral diseases. Most of these are prevented by immunization:

Viral diseases
smallpox.
the common cold and different types of flu.
measles, mumps, rubella, chicken pox, and shingles.
hepatitis.
herpes and cold sores.
polio.
rabies.
Ebola and Hanta fever.

Besides if we try for herd immunity as TW just said, most of the world would be dead. There wouldn’t be much of a herd left.

Projections say we couldl run out of hospital beds and ICU bed by the end of the year in the US !

What @stanleybmanly said. Too late here in the U.S. All we can do is wait for a vaccine or wait for herd immunity. That is how the 1918 flu pandemic eventually went away. So many people became infected and immune that the virus eventually had nowhere to go.

The approximate fatality rate of C19 is 3%.

If 60% of the US population gets infected, that could result in about 5,940,000 deaths.
That’s equivalent to everyone in Los Angeles dying and another 2 million dead nationwide.
Businesses will definitely fail if most of their work forces and customers have died.

I say it’s a lot better to do everything we can to minimize the death toll until a viable vaccine is developed, and as @Kropotkin implied, achieve herd immunity through vaccination.

What surprised me is that US death toll from the 1918 flu was 675,000. When I extrapolate that to the current US population, the result is about 2,163,000.

3% is not “Most of the world,” @jca2. It means 97% of the world will survive it, like Rick and I did in February.

There is no vaccine for the common cold because there are over 200 rhinovirus’ that cause colds. However, once you have one of those viruses you are immune to that specific virus. That’s why kids are sick with colds all the time, and older people almost never.

I don’t think we will get it under control. I think we’ve passed some threshold while the watch slept through the alarms. Now it’s going to be a matter of luck and time as much as of care.

Unfortunately we in the U.S. have herds of people who don’t believe in the old collective wisdom that their right to swing their fist stops at the end of my nose. Instead, if my nose is in their way, off with it. So I have to be on my guard not only against disease but also against my fellow citizens. There is no immunizing against stubborn stupidity and willful ignorance.

So I think, being in several high-risk categories myself, that I’m in for it before it abates, and my husband even more so than I because of his severely compromised health.

I have written out an instruction that I don’t want a ventilator. I’ve added it to my AMD, signed and dated it. I’ve had some long sieges of bronchial asthma, and I can tell you that’s a lousy way to go, gasping. Give me a nice handful of Ambien or something, put on some beautiful music, and let me drift off.

Not yet, though.

@Jeruba “There is no immunizing against stubborn stupidity and willful ignorance.” No truer words were ever spoken.

@Dutchess_III You might want to get another antibody test, I know a couple of people who had it in March and April, and have been tested recently and have virtually no antibodies showing up.

Other countries have somewhat got a hold on it, why can’t the states?
Although Canada is in a second wave and I contribute that to stupid people we are looking at again a partial shutdown here in BC,back east they have closed schools now till after Christmas.

That is scary @canidmajor immunity doesn’t last long with this little devil.

@SQUEEKY2, because other countries have governments that are doing something, that’s why.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/public-health-officials-warn-of-danger-of-trump-blocking-transition-on-covid/ar-BB1b2qU9

attribute

Dutch – I don’t believe COVID was in Kansas in February in any case. How could you have had it?

Also, it is not just between death and survival that is the concern, some people have physical and neurological effects longer after they recover from the disease. Things such as brain fog, muscle aches, and fatigue can last for months if not forever.

@janbb , I have wondered that as well.

@Dutchess_III: Why did you tag me? I haven’t commented on this thread.

@jca2 I think she meant to tag me.

@jca2

Uh oh- now she’ll tag you and then you’ll be IT! ;-0

And, @janbb, @canidmajor, and you too, @Dutchess_III: Remember all those things you could catch before covid? You can still catch them.

@canidmajor: I asked my doctor about the antibody test this past summer and he said they’re only about 50% accurate, so can give a false sense of safety if it comes out positive but was incorrect.

@Jeruba, that’s why I’m one of the fraidy cats that are so widely mocked. I am compromised eight ways from Sunday, just about anything can take me down pretty hard.

@Jeruba…why would you even think you need to tell us we can still contract non-covid viruses? I have a fairly decent grasp of how viruses work.

The vaccine is supposed to be 90% effective in stopping SARS-CoV-2 (China Virus). When most people get vaccinated then the COVID-19 disease should be pretty much beaten.

@canidmajor, not mocked by me, I assure you. I have had to treat common colds like a runaway plague for years because a small ordinary cold could easily kill my husband. I’ll step back, move away, change my seat, or leave before exposing myself to someone’s cold virus, and I don’t let social convention stop me, even though I do try to be polite and considerate about it. I’ve also spoken up when my husband wouldn’t speak for himself, especially in meetings that end with everyone holding hands in a circle.

And with those precautions, I have actually gone several years without a cold myself, whereas I used to be certain to have them two or three times a year. Those are all pre-mask precautions, too.

@Dutchess_III a number of your posts indicate that you don’t, really.

@Jeruba Never you, but a lot of people do, bunches on here during earlier days.

@canidmajor

Thankfully at least some of those people have left.

And you think you do @canidmajor?

Well, @Dutchess_III, I’m not the one making claims.

Rand Paul said today that we’ve had over 10m cases here in the US & that means that we have over 10m citizens with immunity & that ALL of them should go out & party by going to bars, restaurants, visit friends, etc. The very first case from my town went into the hospital around the 1st of April, came out around the 1st of August & he’s still having problems getting around. He says that he couldn’t go out & party even IF he wanted to!!!

I’m skeptical of the idea that we are immune after having it as I have a distant cousin who says that she’s had it 3 times. I know that she’s been in the hospital 3 times; but without speaking directly to her doctor, I can’t verify how many times she’s actually had it,so I can only take her word for it. Assuming that she’s had it 3 times in the last 9–10 months, the immunity must not last for very long!!!

And I have heard that people that have had it have some lasting side affects from it.
I am totally skeptical of herd immunity myself, thanks for the answer. @LadyMarissa

Texas has already passed the 1 mil mark & California crossed that milestone yesterday. That’s 2 mil people praying that they are immune!!!

I think it’s going to require some drastic enforcement measures to get in under control. Too many people refuse to wear masks and think it’s all some goofy conspiracy. I know some people who think that way and you CANNOT reason with them. And harsher measures will only play in to their fears. I see people going into convenience stores all the time with no mask. Even when it is plainly posted that masks are required to enter. I just hope they get a safe and effective vaccine out and stop screwing around. It may still be to little to late anyway.

Why do people think they know when the first case was in their state? Many states didn’t know until someone was hospitalized. We are aware of the first “known” case.

I think it’s insane to just throw our hands up and say nothing we can do. Of course we can do something. At minimum we can plateau cases, get it down to a one to one transmission instead of exponential growth, but I do believe we can get the numbers back down. We have done it before.

When I took the Quest antibody test I think I was told it’s over 90% accurate. Quest only does the IgG.

What I’ve read is scientists basically agree that people have immunity at least 3 months, we need more time to know how long the majority of people carry the immunity. What I read recently was an estimate that just under 10% of the US population has had covid.

The death rate is estimated at .7% from many things I’ve read. I think the 2–3% is of known cases, I’d have to do the math. It doesn’t matter for the point I’m about to make—people over 55 have MUCH higher risk. As you go up in age the risk goes up and up. The average death rate across all ages doesn’t matter if you are 75 years old, what matters is the death rate for 75 year olds.

You aren’t going to convince no-maskers to wear a mask by trying to scare them nor by asking to care about others. The things that might work are government orders, so they can still say they disagree with masks while they are wearing one. Or, to show them cities with football games and crowds and no covid cases. The really tricky part is some people literally need to be deprogrammed. Wearing a mask for some people is like swearing allegiance to the communist party and denying their faith in God. The identity crisis is real. Plus, many of these same people truly believe they are helping others by being willing to get sick to contribute to herd immunity. They are the altruists in their mind.

I see a lot of people saying it’s “too late” for the US. “Too late” suggests this is out of our control. It’s not.

It’s too late for almost a quarter of a million people here who have lost their lives. It’s too late for the however many more it is who are currently sick or imminently sick who won’t survive, or who will have lasting complications, or who will have the lasting heartbreak of having given covid to a loved one who doesn’t survive, etc.

And it’s both devastating and infuriating to know that most of these casualties weren’t necessary, and won’t have been necessary.

But the same things that flattened curves before will flatten curves again if people are just willing to make it happen. It’s not complicated. Stay home. Wear a mask. Keep your distance. Wash your hands.

Come January 20th, we have the promise of an executive branch that is willing to lead a national response in the way that a government is supposed to lead it—providing resources and needed funds, coordinating efforts, disseminating scientific information, etc.—but the other stuff we can keep doing ourselves until then, and we can keep fighting to get others to do, too.

What happens going forward is still a choice being made, collectively, every day, and it will continue to be a choice until the pandemic is officially over.

Michigan starts a covid pause on Wednesday for 3 weeks.

I’ve never been able to get my head around all this conspiracy think. Supposedly the virus, if even real, is the culmination of a vast plot involving Bill Gates, the Mason’s, teen sex traffickers, even the British Royal Family and prominent American politicos. Never mind the obvious fact that even if you to lock all these suspects in an auditorium and give them a year to design a giraffe, they’d come out with a sea tortoise and call it a fucking narwhal.

the virus is real. But I am skeptical that it’s a magic virus, unlike any other virus in history, except that, until December, not one person on the planet had an immunity to it. That alone is going to make it spread like wild fire for a while.

I know. I still say though, that a lot of the problem with it spreading is all of these idiots who wont mask up. They can take their plots and conspiracies on down the line, I don’t want to be exposed top their crap.

I agree. Wear a damn mask! How hard is it?

But there’s an Illuminatie agent of the New World order, around every corner spying on us. We got to be patriot’s and get everyone sick, to thwart this horrible plot. (Eyeroll)

EVERYBODY needs to wear a mask!
As near as I can figure, here in the US the death rate is about .0095%. It doesn’t sound like much but it means 95 deaths for every 10,000 people, or 9,500 per million and, with about 386 million people in the US, 3,667,000 deaths. Is that enough to convince everyone to get with the program??
(½ of the population would have to get it and be immune for the herd immunity thing to kick in. Meanwhile, 1,833,500 people die.)

@kritiper Where you getting those numbers?

I’m seeing 3 to 5 percent.

@kritiper .95%. You are making the same mistake as the Trumpers with your decimal points and percentage symbols. I had to correct probably 50 people when those fake math memes were being shared across social media. I am not questioning your percentage, I think it is .95% or maybe even less, closer to .7%, but it’s just the average, the problem it is much higher if you are over 50, much much higher if you are over 65.

For people to take it seriously and wear the damn mask and practice real social distancing when possible and wash their hands. Just the bare minimum really will at least get the spread to slow down and people can go back to a semi-normal life and for now, get it out of our system that large holiday gatherings will have to me small for now or at least only have people over you know for sure have quarantined safely before the gatherings. But we all know that won’t happen. I believe any other miracle will happen before people would stop being selfish or stupid.

@Tropical_Willie I think the 3% is of people who have tested positive. There are people who were never tested who had covid.

When a person dies now I imagine an autopsy for Covid is performed.

Why would an autopsy be done if there are xrays and lab confirmation of the virus and a full chart of covid symptoms and treatment?

I could see an autopsy if it was someone who died at home I guess. Especially if they are under 65.

That’s a good question for @caravanfan.

As you said that 3% is based on people who tested positive. This means that people who never got tested (like Rick and me) could have it and ergo. Not in the sample group of the 3% because we weren’t tested.
Not everyone who gets sick rushes off for xrays and lab work and testing. Many of us just wait it out.

@Dutchess_III Thankfully, you didn’t die. The assumption that you had covid is what makes the death rate lower. So, more closer to less than 1% than the 3% a jelly said above. It’s exactly what you said, not everyone gets tested and also there are asymptomatic people.

I think there should be two statistics. One, death rate of known cases; and two, death rate of estimated cases in the population including asymptomatic and unconfirmed.

If you suddenly died at home, God forbid, there might be an automatic autopsy because your cause of death would not be obvious.

Such a pleasant thread. This place is getting to be a real joy.

Jesus @JLeslie. Pretty sure I would have known if I was sick enough to freaking DIE and gotten myself to the hospital. MOST people recover on their own.

@Dutchess_III Exactly. You’re making my point. Although, one of my friends, her aunt an uncle died at home and it was determined to be covid. It was back in the beginning and they were in their 80’s. I don’t know how they determined it.

@JLeslie Math was never one of my strong suits. I should have just said ”.95%.” I knew the amount was less than 1%. The other numbers ring true, however, generally speaking. I didn’t allow or mean to allow for other ages, health risks, etc. It is simply the amount of people in the US who have it, who have had it, and how many have died. Simple as that.

My sister worked at a hospital and says that all deaths are autopsied to determine cause of death. No exceptions! (I cannot say it that is true or not.)

@kritiper What I understand is that if someone is old and dies, they’re not getting an autopsy. If someone has a known disease (they’ve been diagnosed, like cancer), they’re not getting an autopsy. For example, when my mom died of cancer, there was no need for an autopsy. When my grandfather died at 86 years old, there was no need for an autopsy.

However, if someone dies from an accidental death, like a drowning or falling off a cliff, or an overdose, or a crime (and therefore, a suspected crime like the husband claims the wife fell down the stairs), there’s an autopsy.

@kritiper Yes, I understood what you were getting at, but the averages and stats the anti-maskers are using, don’t account for how many people are actually dying in certain age groups. They are willing to cull the herd. I actually do what you did, give the actual numbers of people who will die, which they seem to not want to listen to, they either ignore the information or say unrelated things, like it’s just another virus or people die in car accidents also.

In my opinion this is a lot like when AIDS started in the 80’s and 90’s. I knew a lot of white straight men who believed they couldn’t get it. There were also a lot of people who believed it was a gay disease and that had a religious tilt to it for some people. There are people all over America who believe they won’t get very sick from covid, it is a superiority thing, just like the white straight male who felt immune to AIDS.

I’d have to agree that the media puts covid in front of us constantly while the media doesn’t usually do it for instance when flu is killing lots of people, and that has actually been a complaint of mine during bad flu years. I think the Trump and the media were negligent in 2017–2018 not to ask people to curb their behaviors a little, we lost a lot of people that flu season.

The thing is parts of the public gets hysterical. Let’s take 2017–2018, there was an estimate of 65,000 flu related deaths. That divided by 10 months (I use 10 because the flu season is about 6 months, but there is flu all year) that is 6,500 deaths a day. There is reason to believe it might be a little overstated, because not all are probably confirm flu, but rather some are pneumonia and flu like illness. Most years it is more like 3,500 a day during the flu season. People can’t handle the information though, because flu is less contagious and we have some immunity in the community, and with covid we don’t. 3,500 covid cases a day can turn into 20,000 a day if we literally all start living normal again with hugs hello, large exercise classes, churches full with singing, and big parties.

Regarding autopsy, I assume cause of death is possibly investigated, but the investigation is simple and straight forward if the person has been sick with a specific ailment. Maybe hospitals do an extra step for CYA regarding a death in their hospital. I really don’t know all the rules, but I know sometimes families have to ask or pay for an autopsy when they suspect something is not right with the death of a loved one. Especially, if they are older citizens, but that isn’t in a hospital I don’t think, or maybe they want an independent ME to look at the case.

There was a 98% chance I would survive it so to say I was “lucky” I didn’t die was pretty ridiculous.

@Dutchess_III When did you have your antibody test? We’re you able to donate to help out? My friend’s sister had ii in April and donated plasma in May while they were working on those treatments.

@Dutchess_III Are you talking to me? I don’t think I said you were lucky. I know most people don’t die. You are higher risk though, but plenty of high risk people get very mild symptoms.

It’s more likely you were sick with the flu if you were sick this past winter with fever and and feeling glued to the bed and a mild cough, and it lasted 5–7 days. I don’t know what your symptoms were, I don’t remember.

I have asked around. No one is doing tests for antibodies @canidmajor. When Rick and I got sick it was just a couple of weeks before the shit hit the fan so they weren’t testing for Covid.
Looking back our symptoms were classic. I even got a headache and I never get headache.
My chest was tight, and I was short of breath, and that scared me enough (because of the pneumonia I had in 2012) that I went to the ER. Doc ran some tests and shrugged her shoulders.
“Just some kind of virus,”
she said, and discharged me.

The more reliable antibody tests are expensive without insurance.

From what I’ve heard they aren’t even available. Last time I went to the doc she said it wasn’t available.

@Dutchess_III

They are available but should be used 2 to 5 weeks after the probable infection. Not 6 months later.

Interesting.

^^ My cousins in NYC had antibody tests back in the Spring. Maybe just not available in your state?

I thought Quest Labs was in every state, but maybe not. I assume LabCorp has a reliable test also, but I only know about the Quest.

Maybe @janbb. Or maybe there have to be certain criteria you have meet to qualify for one. I’ll look into it a bit further tomorrow.
I was tested for Covid 2 weeks ago. It was negative.

I ordered it myself and had it done. It was pricey though without an order from a doctor. Without the order I couldn’t use insurance. I think it was $120.00. There are drug stores where I live that have antibody tests that are $25, but I don’t know if they are IgG or IgM and I don’t know how accurate they are.

Here is some info regarding antibody testing. It was just updated this month.
They’re just scrambling to get every thing figured out.

It would be great if Biden instructed the FDA to crack down on which tests are reasonably accurate and get the rest off the market.

My doctor said antibody test here (CT) is about 150 dollars and it’s only about 50% accurate. He recommended against taking it, because of the low accuracy rate.

Quest says their test is over 90% accurate, but I don’t know what riggers it has been through.

When my friend and her husband were sick his swab test came back inconclusive, so they were thinking about getting the antibody test. I don’t know if they did.

Another friend was sick for 2 weeks, 4 negative swab tests, and finally asked her doctor for Zithromax and got better. I told her, you had a bacterial infection most likely and your doctor should have given you an antibiotic a week ago. Her illness reacted to the drug just like a bacterial infection would. She got the antibody test a few weeks later and it was negative.

Another friend in Queens, he and his husband had almost every symptom, it was back in March when NY was really bad. They never got a swab test, because tests weren’t plentiful. They got the antibody test a month later and were positive.

The vaccine manufacturers must be testing for antibodies. They need to see if people are seroconverting to know the vaccine is working.

Yeah no. If it was available I wouldn’t take it. Waste of money to tell me something that I’m 80% sure of that I already know.

@jca2 I can neither confirm or deny anything you or my sister says on the subject of autopsies.