Will we reach a point where covid vaccines are distributed at the same pace as they are used?

I think all states should have two weeks on hand at all times so people are fairly guaranteed to get their second shot. I’d have to work out the math, but it’s not up at 90%. I was a buyer, and although shipments are usually on time and regular, they do get screwed up.

We have a snowstorm right now in the northeast, it wouldn’t surprise me if there will be a delay in shipments.

What if something happens at the manufacturing plant?

Always good to have some cushion. The delay is only initially, and then there is a constant flow of goods and vaccines with the extra stock of product always there.

The way I see it, if they see shipments are held up, they cancel first doses for a few days to preserve the back stock for second doses, keeping in mind that these vaccines do expire so that must be monitored too.

A way to avoid cancelling appointments, which causes a headache and ripple effect, is to not schedule more than 7 days out.

I think it goes without saying as a logical part of the process. Like, “What goes up must come down.” And sooner or later, the lines will cross.

I agree with @kritiper. They (USGov, the states, local governments, hospitals) collectively need to get the logistics figured out.

MY guess is that we’ll have vaccine equilibrium by May.

Some of it is already being fixed. There was a slow start, which is not a bad thing. It’s basically phase 4 testing watching what happens as millions are vaccinated. I know they kept saying 20,000 were vaccinated in the phase 3 trials, but only a portion of them were over 65, or had thyroid disease or kidney disease, etc, etc.

States are figuring out where allotments were done poorly and which companies are doing better at setting appointments and getting the vaccine in arms.

My governor prioritized having enough vaccine for second doses and I agree with him. He totally screwed up getting my city enough vaccine initially though.

No matter how well it was planned there would have been a need for adjustments.

Of course the distribution will improve, and the point will be reached when the population will be saturated with sufficient numbers of vaccinated individuals to snuff out the epidemic. The question is the same as it was a year ago: WHEN ?

My guess is by May-June most 65 and up and people who work directly with the public will be vaccinated. As far as closing in on herd immunity, it will take a while. That’s if there aren’t strains that evade the vaccine. Also, there are people refusing the vaccine who are currently eligible. Plus, children aren’t being vaccinated yet (except for trials) and they are 20% of the population, but they also don’t seem to spread it as readily so herd immunity for children might be a different number than the over 80% mark.

All, thanks for your answers. They are most helpful.

I am an optimistic sort of fellow, so I think we’ll be done much sooner than most people believe. We have already hit over one million vaccinated per day. Doubling our current rate should not be problematic. At that rate, we’ll be done in a little over six months with the entire population of adults (about 225 million remaining to be vaccinated, most needing two shots). The only worry I have is resistant strains of the virus; however, if booster shots are required I am convinced they can be developed in a matter of weeks.