@elbanditoroso I am so glad you read the link from cover to cover. I had not. Now you shamed me into reading it.
I have the following comments:
1. The report is extremely thorough, examining the impact on all areas of the federal budget. While you would expect that, I was totally blown away by items like:
Effects on Spending for Nutrition Programs
Effects on Spending for Social Security
Effects on Other Mandatory Spending
Effects on Discretionary Outlays for Wages of Federal Workers
and
Effects on Net Spending for Interest
2. As I expected, you have mis-stated the aspects of the report that may bolster your case. For instance, the line that you used from Page 9 reads as follows:
“CBO estimates that there is a one- third chance of that effect’s being between about zero and 1.0 million workers and a one-third chance of its being between 1.0 million and 2.7 million workers.” You stated: “there is a 33% chance that employment loss would be 0 (not 1.4 million) (top of p. 9)”. The reason I checked this particular statement of yours is that CBO cannot estimate probabilities for a specific number, just a range.
Obviously the estimates are based on “a set of assumptions”. Since the CBO is trying to model human behavior under a different set of laws, assumptions are necessary.
You made another statement that seems hard to believe. You said: “raising minimum wage would increase demand for goods and services (i.e. business would be better) for a while (p.8)”. I did not find any statement on Page 6 about goods and services. There is a statement on Page 8 that, to me, says the direct opposite of what you stated:
“Higher wages would increase the cost to employers of producing goods and services. Employers would pass some of those increased costs on to consumers in the form of higher prices, and those higher prices, in turn, would lead consumers to purchase fewer goods and services. Employers would consequently produce fewer goods and services, and as a result, they would tend to reduce their employment of workers at all wage levels.”
I am certain, @elbanditoroso, that your research was adequate. However, you have expressed your research through a biased prism.