Which origin theory of the Coronavirus do you believe?

Some virology experts think that the SARS-CoV-2 virus was genetically engineered at the Wuhan Virology Lab in China (China Virus) and escaped. That seems like a logical conclusion to me also.

I’m not putting any faith in my “beliefs” on this; I’m waiting for the conclusive evidence. And frankly, it really doesn’t matter to me much except in terms of trying to prevent the next one.

@janbb These beliefs would be based on science though, so I was curious which one makes the most sense to you (I know we’re a shrewd bunch.)

The point which is paramount in my mind is that regardless of the origins of the disease, the CCP will do whatever is necessary to counter as well as vehemently deny any allegation of responsibility regarding any aspect of the disease or its spread. It has been clear from
the outset that suppression of details regarding the origin and spread of covid have been given the same or even higher priority by the party than the actual containment and eradication of the disease itself. In view of this, I believe it unlikely that a definitive answer on the question is in our near term future. There will certainly be little if any cooperation on the part of ANY Chinese citizen or agency when it comes to open revelation of the truth.

Science and facts aren’t to be believed in. They just are.

I don’t believe in my address. It’s a fact I live there.

@stanleybmanly I agree, and I certainly haven’t forgotten the ones who were silenced there.

That being said, I’m going with the market transmission theory, personally.

The strongest evidence of the virus’s origin points to a section of the Huanan open-air market where more than 75 species of stressed wildlife were stacked in wire cages and slaughtered on-site for buyers. “You almost couldn’t design a more perfect setting for the transmission of disease,” says Teresa Telecky, HSI vice president for wildlife. “Animals are crowded together and you have all these fluids—blood, saliva, feces.” After the government closed the market, tests revealed the virus in the wildlife section. Two-thirds of the 41 earliest identified cases had direct ties to that part of the market. Most of the rest had indirect ties (for example, a woman married to a man who worked there). Scientists are searching for the “intermediate host” mammal that carried the virus from bats to Wuhan. In 2002, the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) epidemic began when civets infected with a closely related bat coronavirus brought it to a wildlife market in South China.

https://www.humanesociety.org/news/what-you-need-know-about-wildlife-markets-and-covid-19

I haven’t decided. I must agree with @janbb so far.

I don’t have sufficient expertise in epidemiology to offer a meaningful opinion. Unfortunately many people do hold strong opinions on this question—also without sufficient expertise.

The fact that a lab leak COULD be the source indicates to me that we need some MAJOR changes to how this type of research is performed. I would like to see a global treaty where all nations agree that such research only be carried out in remote island research facilities, with strict quarantine protocols and the military protection of the UN.

@gorillapaws The experts have come up with four theories explained in detail in the second link, so I thought it may be interesting for us to read them, and explore the science/ facts behind each and discuss.
We’ve had so many threads on Covid, I’m a bit surprised but it’s fine. Shrugs.

@KNOWITALL I think the question is perfectly valid, and I agree that learning more is a good thing. I’m just acknowledging that any insights I have into the question would probably be woefully inadequate, just as my opinion about Super String Theory, advanced military tactics, or the structural integrity of a bridge would lack the depth of knowledge and expertise necessary to hold much value.

I think I’ll wait for the fact based science to tell me, else I would just be guessing or going by someone else’s guess.

@stanleybmanly Attributing blame only makes it harder to get at the truth and it is in everyone’s interest to get to the bottom of this to minimise the chances of it occurring again. It is the virus against us and we will deal with it most effectively if we stand together without blaming each other.

China made mistakes in dealing with the virus for sure but China also got some things right and it simply isn’t true to say China didn’t give the containment and eradication of the disease a high priority. China enforced a complete lockdown on the citizens of Hubei and neighbouring provinces which was so thorough that the disease was almost eliminated from the country within six months. Chinese Covid deaths stand at 4,800 while deaths in the US are 607,000 and counting. That alone should tell you something.

China should also get some credit for sequencing the Covid genome and giving the results to the west before the arrival of the actual virus itself giving us a head start in developing a vaccine.

I am by no means making an accusation that China either made mistakes or on the other hand did a superlative job. What I am saying is that though we are indeed all in this together, we can expect scant cooperation in the collection of any data or research that can in any way be construed to cast the CCP in a bad light. This renders any effort at determining the actual causes beyond problematic.

This is personal. I work at the Hawaii State Dept. of Health in downtown Honolulu. Today, there was a demonstration in front of the building where I work. There were more than a hundred people carrying signs with various slogans all against vaccination. 2 people had megaphones. There were the loud air horns. They were here for more than an hour.

I’m on the second floor, and at one point, a female colleague and I were at the window looking at the mob. My colleague was videoing with her phone. 2 people were shouting directly at us with obvious rage. My colleague is native Hawaiian, and they were targeting her. She was doing nothing to provoke them and made the peace sign several times while I stood there. There were obvious racial undertones to the mob’s behavior. I felt personally in danger.

This is why it is dangerous to use words like “believe” when talking about science and facts. Please choose a different word.

It was probably bats in the wet market, but it might have been a mistake by researchers.
It sure as hell wasn’t on purpose, and wasn’t a result of 5G cell phone signals.

@Hawaii_Jake Science and facts aren’t to be believed in. They just are.

Regarding another topic – “People don’t believe in evolution. They understand evolution.”

As to the virus, I haven’t seen much evidence of its ancestry. We know the first big outbreaks were in China. Scientists are working back from there.

There is a long history of viruses jumping to humans from domesticated animals. Native Americans died in large numbers when they first came into contact with viruses carried by Europeans. If I had to make a guess, I would say that contact with the corona virus was from the market in China.

@LostInParadise Thanks for answering the question!
I agree.

Since the country consumes 20 million dogs, fruit bats and other exotic foods, that would be my second guess.

I agree with @LostInParadise. IMO shit happens. The AIDS virus mutated in monkeys in Africa and spread to humans when the locals ate the monkey meat.
I have never heard anyone suggest it was engineered.

Serious question: is it necessary for us to have an opinion on this? And is it somehow better to have an opinion on this than to not have one, even if that opinion is poorly informed? I get that there are specific options on the table for the purposes of this question and that there is evidence for each of them. But the current state of things makes picking one over the other equivalent to taking sides or picking a team jersey.

The whole point of a scientific approach to things is to reject that theories that have been ruled out and to not pick between the ones that remain. Even if you have to pick one to study, you don’t have to pick one to believe. Hypotheses are chosen for the sake of an experiment, not for the sake of establishing a worldview.

We also need to be careful about conflating things that aren’t the same and separating things that might not be disconnected. A lot of people hear “lab leak” and immediately think “genetic engineering.” But the virus could have been brought into a lab for study and then leaked from there. And if that’s what happened, then it still could have come from a bat, an intermediary animal, or even frozen food products. In other words, these theories aren’t all mutually exclusive.

@nooneknowsanything Generally people who have interest answer and people who don’t scroll on. Not sure why anyone not interested would comment at all in General.

As the world’s human population continues to grow, more and more food sources will become scarce and more and more people will seek to eat any animal they come across. So, more and more chances of epidemics may occur.

A zoonotic virus is the the most reasonable origin, whether direct or indirect. And I read somewhere that zoonotic diseases are the majority of newly identified infectious diseases.

I basically agree with @filmfann.

Previously, I thought it was most likely the wet market, but I always thought we should investigate. I wanted to believe the scientists at the lab would care about the truth and readily investigate and admit if there had been any sign of an accidental infection that could have led to the spread of the virus.

I don’t blame China even if there was a leak. I do have a problem with China sitting on information about the virus for a several days, but as I have said before, my guess is if it had started in the US some days might have gone by here too. It would depend on the circumstance and the particular scientists involved, Both situations are bad: a leak in the lab and unhealthy conditions at wet markets. Both need to be addressed no matter what the investigation finds.

We do have the problem of the Chinese scientists possibly being reluctant to cooperate in fear of the Chinese government.

It’s a BIG problem!

@KNOWITALL You misunderstand me. I am very interested in the question. I just don’t think that the answer is picking a side before the evidence is in, especially given our current understanding about how picking sides influences the way we process new information. If there is more than one viable theory, choosing to believe in one will prejudice our interpretation of future discoveries.

Sometimes we have no choice but to pick a side. I don’t think this is one of those times, though, and I don’t think we should give in to the temptation to have opinions on everything just because we can. Picking a side here doesn’t get us anything, and it potentially costs us our objectivity. So I would prefer to keep learning about the coronavirus and its possible origins than to make up my mind about it prematurely.

@NoOneKnowsAnything Okay. Now you see why I rarely ask questions on this site, I love to theorize and explore ideas for fun, not necessarily for a ‘pick one’ as a permanent resolution. It’s all good, I had fun with it elsewhere.