What do you think of this doomsday prediction?
Here is an article by William Poundstone summarizing his book about the prediction made by physicist Richard Gott.
Basically the argument goes like this. There is a fifty percent chance that we are living in the second half of human history, gauged by the number of people born. Due to the larger number of people that are around now, it will take only about 760 years to match the number of people who have previously been born. If we are in the second half that means humanity has a 50% chance of existing only another 760 years.
What do you think? Are we doomed?
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11 Answers
I believe 750 years is cheerfully optimistic unless we miraculously find some other planet to ruin, along with the ability to reach it.
I am not good at these kinds of equations, so I couldn’t tell you, but I would want to urge you to send this to Putin, right away.
So what? I’ll be dead in 760 years.
And Malthusians have been peddling this bullshit for centuries.
Nothing to worry about
No.
We’ll make a brilliant comeback in the third half.
I don’t care I’ll be long dead anyway. I mean, would the spirit of some guy who died in the Middle Ages have been concerned about Covid or the Cold War?
The UN expects the human population of the Earth to level out after the turn of this century. I predict we have less than 250 years, tops.
The way the theory is presented in the OP, is nonsense, because it postulates this:
“If we are in the second half [of human history]” but lists zero basis why that might be the case.
Glancing at the link, I see several explanation of why this notion is bullshit by and/or for people who don’t understand math and/or philosophy, and I didn’t notice any real argument why it isn’t bullshit.
As the article mentions, the theory was successfully tested using the durations of Broadway plays. I find it somewhat counter-intuitive that the duration of something should be proportional to how long it has been around – the older something is the more likely it will continue to be around.
I absolutely love predictions that predict something will happen way after anyone around is long gone. Why worry about 760 years in the future when we pose a more serious threat to ourselves now? Poisoning our water and air and our land and food. I’m with @HP. That is optimistic.
I don’t think the maths makes much sense and I expect humanity will be around for a lot more than another 760 years.
@LostInParadise “As the article mentions, the theory was successfully tested using the durations of Broadway plays.”
– How does the duration of Broadway plays have anything to do with projecting the future of humanity?
Crap, you’re getting me to follow that link again . . . sigh . . .
Ok, right:
” most scholars believe the doomsday argument is wrong, and 2) there is no consensus on why it’s wrong.”…
i.e. it’s bullshit. Absolute bullshit. So bullshit, that there are endless reasons why it is bullshit, so many that everyone has their own preferred reasons why it’s bullshit.
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