Is there a strategic advantage to Russia attacking Ukraine in mid-winter, as opposed summer or fall?

Ras Putin is drawing on his own nations history as a cautionary measure. If his plan backfires and he starts a major war, and the NATO alliance gets any ideas about chasing his armies back to Russia, he can do the same to NATO as they have done in the past to Hitler, Napoleon, and Gustavus Adolphus of Sweden. Just retreat into a Russian winter and burn everything in thier path and draw out the invaders supply lines. Then revert to guerilla warfare. Might sound crazy in the age of aircraft re supply and air drops, but he has surface to air missile installations to rely on I’m sure. Just speculating here.

Just one more comment here. There may have actually been one brief, shining moment of history when a winter offensive in Russia might have succeeded. Some people say they Patton wanted to take out the Soviet Army in 1945 when the Brits Americans and French had the forces in place in Germany to make it happen. And to re arm the de Nazified German Wermacht to assist. Maybe, possibly, might have succeeded. But the Euros were all war weary and the Americans were leary of Patton by that time themselves. Possibly one of the might have beens of history.

Troops on the move don’t need tents. They ride in APCs. Tanks and APCs like frozen ground to travel on. So do trucks. What an attacking force wants is momentum, movement. Not tent time.

I think Putin’s assessment is that he should strike now while the USA is demoralised by the defeat in Afghanistan and disinclined to get involved.

Reading about the Ukraine winter, it seems that now might well be the best time. Their winter runs December-February. Then it starts to warm up with the snow melting bringing the mud that you mentioned. January is normally their coldest month & I’m assuming that February would be somewhat warmer with March bringing the mud. So the time of opportunity would be mid February to mid March. Anyway, it won’t matter how cold it is to Putin as he will be sitting inside his cozy warm home NOT the least bit concerned about how cold his troops are!!! I also noticed that it was considerably warmer in the Ukraine than it is in Russia. Maybe his troops aren’t as cold as we’re thinking, but it is considerably colder to the Allied troops.

Traditionally, Russia doesn’t care much about the convenience of the weather when planning attacks.

This also doesn’t look to me like a conventional invasion is intended. My guess is Russia does not plan to invade Ukraine, at least not immediately, but it might be planning to assist the separatists and have them do most of the fighting and dying. Or they might just be seeing what happens when they do maneuvers next to Ukraine. But I could be wrong. it’s a complex situation with lots of details and conflicting sources of information.

The weather is a trivial matter in the list of factors driving events. Much more significant is the matter of the ethnic dominance of the Russian population in Eastern Ukraine. The Western take that Russia is simply out to overrun helpless Ukraine ignores the reality that the Russian speaking East of the country clamors in defiance of its government for reintegration with Russia. Thus the country is faced with an invasion that must perforce be paired simultaneously with civil war.

No clear strategic advantage in terms of seasonal conditions.

As others have pointed out, modern weapons technolgy and tactics allow a much wider range of options for both attackers and defenders – regardless of weather. The old lessons from earlier wars don’t necessarily apply today.

It seems more likely that Putin has timed this aggression because of what he sees as weaknesses in US/NATO relations, and signs that Ukraine will continue to pull away from Russian influence. He’s making his grab now becuase he believes his chances will be worse later on. It’s nothing more than an international crime of opportunity targeting territory and resources.

Arguing that “the West is out of touch with reality” because it rejects bogus claims of Russian cultural and political interests is junk history. Buying into that excuse legitimizes Hitler’s attacks accross Europe as just an effort to “unite German speaking peoples”. And Putin came from a broken home…

@JLoon Putin has indeed timed this “aggression”, but not due to any perceived weakness in the U.S. NATO relationship. He did it now simply because it’s simpler to prevent Ukraine’s incorporation with NATO now than to remedy the matter once it is established. It’s the smart thing to do. And with regard to that junk history, there are 2 facts that are beyond dispute. Whether we believe or not, Putin believes it; and more to the point the Russian people believe it. Primarily because they’ve lived it! While we here think we exhibit no hostile intent toward Russia, our behavior is understandably viewed with suspicion by a people that defines its history as devastating series of invasions from the West.

@HP – “A smart thing to do”?!

Frankly, your bogus history lessons and fawning Putin fan-boy rhetoric are wearing thin. People and countries have an absolute right to self determination. Dividing the world into “spheres of influence” is just dressing rotten colonial mentality in different rags.

Whatever political sophistication you want to claim, the difference that matters is that the Urkrainians are fighting and dying for their choice – while you pound your keyboard.

Enjoy your vacation in Moscow.

@HP Ukraine has as much right to be safe as Russia has. Look at its history, a devastating series of invasions from the West and the East.