Is the situation in Ukraine another in the unending foreign policy failures of the United States?

I’m skeptical of any analysis making this war primarily about the U.S. I think that Russia’s revanchism about Ukraine has existed since the fall of the Soviet Union and they would’ve done this regardless of any flirtation with joining NATO on Ukraine’s part. Even a promise not to join NATO would not have stopped Russia from wanting Ukraine’s oil reserves and attempting to put a pro-Russian government in Kiev.

Well, I don’t know how it all started in the first place or what we may have done to help cause it.

Actually, I think the US and NATO are handling this war of aggression remarkably well. I hope it comes back to bite Putin in the ass. And my respect for President Biden which had dipped greatly has gone back up.

From what I’ve read, the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

. . . ” encourage Georgia and Ukraine to hook up with NATO and the EU” Sources please @HP

“Despite their efforts, both countries have yet to receive a NATO membership action plan. Critics argue that Georgia and Ukraine need to “clean up corruption” before being considered for NATO membership. They also claim that these countries have a way to go before they meet the NATO standards of “encourage[ing] and support[ing] democratic reforms,” as stated in the Study on NATO Enlargement.” December 2021
– - – - https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/democracy-summit-can-help-georgia-and-ukraine-their-nato-aspirations

In some ways, this may work out to be the best possible outcome for Europe (though it could result in global thermonuclear war). When you have a dictator with Nukes that’s fantasizing about restoring the Russian Empire to it’s former glory and is willing to violate international law the sovereignty of it’s neighbor to do so, getting bogged down in Ukraine, uniting the world in economic opposition, getting caught lying to your soldiers and people, and pissing off the oligarchs who help keep you in power, is a pretty good way to get yourself removed from office. It’s certainly going to stifle his imperialist ambitions, and ability to flex.

No, I see this as a total Russian failure. Since Putin listens to no one but himself, he is the one responsible for everything happening, including making Biden look like a stable genius no where near ready for a nursing home

So the answer is there’s no way we could reasonably prevent or influence the present situation?

Hmmm… think about it. You make a recommendation on something to a co-worker.
That co-worker is killed or has a third party act aggressively to that co-worker.

Where does the burden of the issue lie?

And @gorillapaws Once more, the argument isn’t that Putin is not evil, treacherous, duplicitous or corrupt. The question should be does he know what he can get away with, and has he proven that he is willing to show us? And more to the point: should we get and believe the message?

@HP “So the answer is there’s no way we could reasonably prevent or influence the present situation?”

We could have completely abandoned Ukraine. Let Putin take it. He gets more popular and feels emboldened. Then starts pushing further west.

He overplayed his hand and got caught. This may be the best possible way for his regime to fall because it’s of his own doing and it may come from internal forces. China isn’t even really backing him right now, and they have no interest in seeing things break down to global thermonuclear war.

And by “best possible,” I acknowledge that the loss of life in Ukraine is horrific (and do not intend my statement to diminish their suffering), but the alternatives of a Russian-NATO conflict would be horror on a global scale.

And we don’t want to see that either. Putin knows it, but back to China which is more than happy to buy up all the oil and gas Russia can pump. China will assuredly back Putin in that. How has he overplayed his hand? Georgia will not dare follow Ukraine’s example, and Ukraine is reduced to the status of Syria. Inflation is going to skyrocket in our country, flood the West with tens of thousands of refugees, and leave Russia with a catastrophic shortage of grain and farm products. But it would be foolish to assert that Putin has not made his point.

“So the answer is there’s no way we could reasonably prevent or influence the present situation?”

That’s not what you asked. Your question was: “Is the situation in Ukraine another in the unending foreign policy failures of the United States?”

@Forever Free You make a recommendation or something to a co-worker which is hostile and expressly against the wishes of his more powerful neighbor might that co- worker assume that you were prepared and capable to prevent it?

@HP I think you see the right and wrong based on your response.

Please, right or wrong is perpheral here. Everone here, including me agrees that this wrong, tragic, destructive and unforgivable in its wastefulness. But was it smart for Putin, and will what’s left of his former republics get the message? As for putin himself, he’s set regardless for life, even with the disintegration of Russia.

@HP “As for putin himself, he’s set regardless for life”

I wouldn’t be so sure of that. There’s a good chance he doesn’t walk away from this. I think there’s a lot of people with power in that country who aren’t very fond of him.

You may be right. Were Russia in the throes of disintegration, Putin might be the patriot who sticks it out to go down with the ship. But considering the negatives to his makeup repeated here with monotonous regularity, is that what you believe he would do?

There is a run on Russian ATMs because the S.W.I.F.T has restricted the cash flow, that will go over big with Russian having their banks failing.

I think Putin will notice ! And the Russian Mafia will too.

There’s little question that the average Russian will take it in the neck, but try to list a time in its history when Russians weren’t suffering. The Russians themselves characterize their history as one relentless cold eternal Winter.

We can’t blame the US for this. It isn’t as if it has invaded Canada. Putin’s invasion has come as a massive shock especially to us in Europe. NATO and the US have been deliberately very non-confrontational with Putin and he has mistaken this for weakness. Had we taken a stronger line Putin would have seen this as threatening. It is very difficult to gauge the right response, even in retrospect.

How this is going to end is not clear but I think we can take it that NATO will want to strengthen its defences and Russia will be ground down by sanctions. What Putin thinks is not clear. He exists in a fog of denial and misinformation but I don’t imagine he is happy with the situation. It is a massive foreign policy failure on his part and that’s without getting into the humanitarian aspect, which is catastrophic.

I think our country like its people, fails to look at the contradictions between what we profess and believe and the stark realities we actually confront. I mean ,how many times have we all seen warm pictures of (for example) the Statue of Liberty without a thought to the embarrassment it should arouse?

“I think our country like its people, fails to look at the contradictions between what we profess and believe and the stark realities we actually confront. I mean ,how many times have we all seen warm pictures of (for example) the Statue of Liberty without a thought to the embarrassment it should arouse?”

What the actual F&%^ !

What are to trying say . . . . or don’t you know?

No. Just no.

Actually it’s vivid proof of Russian failure to recognize and embrace opportunities for improved economic and political relations with Europe and the US, and a clear sign that Putin can no longer be relied on to carry out constructive diplomacy.

Beyond that I think the entire premise of this question, as well as your persistent hammering at “western” responsibility for Russian agression in Ukraine, is unrealistic and motivated by obvious bias.

Your sketchy references to historical justifications for Putin’s actions to suppress legitimate Ukrainian sovereignty, and claims of factual evidence of American threats are false.  And you’ve been called out on this repeatedly:

In 1990 Gorbachev and European leaders agreed to a plan for re-unification of Germany, but with no implied promises or Guarantees on NATO expansion -

Did NATO Promise Not to Enlarge? Gorbachev Says “No”
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/11/06/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/amp/

Russia formally recognized Ukraininan independence in a non-aggression treaty signed in 1997, then violated the terms with armed intervention in eastern provinces in 2014 -

Russian-Ukrianian Friendship Treaty
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian%E2%80%93Ukrainian_Friendship_Treaty

Contrary to your constant finger pointing Russia has never been “encircled and threatened”, and in fact US and NATO troop deploments in Europe decreased by over 80% from 1990 through 2020 -

The US military presence in Europe has been declining for 30 years – the current crisis in Ukraine may reverse that trend
https://theconversation.com/the-us-military-presence-in-europe-has-been-declining-for-30-years-the-current-crisis-in-ukraine-may-reverse-that-trend-175595

In 2002 the US and Europe sponsored  Russian membership in the G8 economic & political forum, and intiated a series of trade agreements which opened markets to a wide range of Russian exports. But again this framework was wrecked by Russia’s 2014 military move into Ukraine -

From the G8 with Love: Full Membership for Russia
https://amp.dw.com/en/from-the-g8-with-love-full-membership-for-russia/a-583772

And finally, far from being some mastermind we all need to stand in awe of, it’s increasingly clear Putin has misjudged the risks in Ukraine and will do massive political and ecomonic damage to himself and to Russia. He’s just another stupid bully using an army to hide fatal weakness  -

https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-losing-hand-ukraine

So what are you really up to here? No reasonable and informed person could follow the facts and draw the same conclusions you do. You must be aware of this. I think there are only two possible conclusions. 1) You’re an ego-obsessed troll, or 2) You’re deliberately engaging in disinformation with the intent to weaken any support for Ukraine.

Either way I think from now on everyone should approach you and everything you post here with exteme caution.

I will waste no more time on this game.

It was trump that undermine U.S. national security & froze military assistance to Ukraine, leaving that lion of a nation, vulnerable to attack. It was Trump’s attacks on NATO that encouraged Putin to believe NATO was fragile.

Apparently Putin has learned nothing from the policy failures of Kramer. ;)

Why are we, the United States, so pivotal in this? There is China, Russia, and Ukraine involved as well. And since when have all of our foreign policies been so lame? Have you not heard of NATO and the United Nations?? There are too many other factors here to just blame it all on the US.

I Ithink I must give up as advised. That my opinions are taken as excuses may be correct. I simply find it unlikely that Putin is willing to destroy Ukraine for no reason other than he’s just plain bad or crazy. Whether right or not, there are 2 things I would like you all to consider. The first is what are the chances now, that Ukraine or Georgia will come out of this with friendly interactions with the West? And the second question is whether or not this episode will maintain Russia’s hegemony over both Sebastopol and the black sea?

@HP This is my take. Putin is getting older and has been doing some reflecting on his legacy during lockdown. He wants to be remembered as the guy who restored Russia to her former glory. Ukraine is a huge piece of that story. He’s been successful in pushing back the west on many occasions such as with Crimea. The US (and especially its people) are exhausted from decades of war without purpose. Nobody has an appetite for nuclear war. He’s been building a sanction-proof war chest for a while now as well as seeding discontent in eastern Ukraine. I think his play was to bully Ukraine into surrendering Donetsk and Lugansk before Ukraine could be admitted into NATO. If that failed, he would headshot Zelenskyy in a blitzkrieg move and install a puppet government. NATO isn’t a threat to Russia in the way Putin pretends it is. NATO IS a threat to his fantasy of reclaiming Ukraine as part of a restored Russian empire.

Russia certainly has the military resources to successfully invade Ukraine, but I don’t think Russia has the resources to sustain a prolonged occupation. When the blitzkrieg failed and a full-scale invasion became necessary, Putin’s hubris essentially cornered him. He couldn’t back out and look like a failure, so he had to double-down. As he committed more troops, and Ukraine’s determined (and experienced) military surprised everyone by beating back the initial waves of troops, Putin was left with little choice but to press harder. This triggered the tidal wave of global economic warfare on Russia.

Putin desperately needs a win at this point. His recklessness has undoubtedly shattered much of his domestic support. I imagine there are plenty of Russians in the military who hate him. You can’t lie to your own troops about not deploying to war while sending them across the boarder. That’s madness. I can only imagine the vast majority of Russians woke up to empty ATMs, a collapsed Ruble and the announcement of Russian deaths in Ukraine and asked themselves “why the fuck are we doing this?” “Is this really worth it?” And this is just the beginning.

Even if Kiev falls and they manage to capture/kill Zelenskyy, Putin has so united the Ukrainian people against him (even many pro-Russian Ukrainians) that any attempts at a prolonged occupation will make the losses the US experienced in the occupation of Iraq seem tame by comparison. There’s going to be tens of thousands of shoulder fired anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons distributed throughout the country, held by Ukrainians filled with rage at their invaders. The longer this thing drags out, the more likely Russia itself faces massive internal discontent, riots and possibly even a coup/assassination of Putin.

Putin is not winning !

It may cost him his country.

Clearly it was a risk he was willing to accept. We shall see whether he survives, and Russia emerges as a functioning entity. Ukraine with the best of outcomes will almost certainly end up cut in half. And it would be a mistake to assume we have witnessed all that Russia can muster toward this effort. If this is the end for Putin, believe me, we’ve seen next to nothing yet.

@HP the Russian people can’t get money from their ATM and you think Putin is on a winning streak !

A nuclear attack would end the Russian invasion and maybe some of the rest oft he world.

@HP why don’t you understand this !

Do you actually expect the failure of ATMs to thwart the Russian military assault? And, now that you bring it up which of the combatants has the nukes, including the tactical nukes? Those who prefer to believe Putin insane should ponder what this means if failure of this assault appears imminent.

YUP on the other HAND PUTIN IS TOAST !

He is not winning in Ukraine and several days behind his time line.

LIKE FIVE !

We know his timeline, and what he is prepared to accept? Are there any reports on the breakdown of discipline or evidence of dissertion in ranks of the Russian military? What’s your guess on how far Putin is willing to go to enforce his will on Ukraine? All we can do is watch and pray that we aren’t living through the end of the world.

@HP “Are there any reports on the breakdown of discipline or evidence of dissertion in ranks of the Russian military?”

Yes. Just one of many examples.

Show me more. That video of an empty and unlabeled APC is useless.

@HP Google “Russian soldier abandon” “Russian soldier AWOL” and set the timeframe to this week. There are tons of stories about it.

Thanks!

@HP This is from a US “senior defense official” from a CNN article:

“There has been in the last six days evidence of a certain risk averse behavior by the Russian military,” the official said. “You’ve seen it on the ground, where units are surrendering, sometimes without a fight. And they’ve got, a lot of these soldiers are conscripts, never been in combat before, some of whom we believe weren’t even told they were going to be in combat. So we’re just seeing evidence of a bit of risk aversion.” [emphasis added]