Can Ukraine win this war without going on the offense?

Possibly, by a resort to guerilla warfare and wearing down their will and determination. As did Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion. Remote possibility but still a possibility. If you can find a copy, look for the book “War in the Shadows, The Guerilla in History” by Robert B. Asprey.

With Putin seemingly willing to pull out all the stops, it would be hard to say. But it has been done in the past with (I’m not sure about this) Japan and Finland.

There is no chance that Ukraine will under any circumstances conquer or even invade Russia. And the odds against that country’s eventual capitulation to Russian military might are (for all practical matters) just about as bad. A sensible outlook should be derived from the modern lessons on protracted warfare we all know and remember. There’s our own debacle in Vietnam along with the Soviet incursion into Afghanistan and our own boneheaded and stupefying insistence on replication of their mistake. Though the invaders in these attempts, were eventually forced to withdraw, the stakes involved for the protagonists were in no way as high as Russia’s current risks. And this war will surely reflect that fact. The 3 former adventures ended when the conflicts proved no longer feasible for the political leadership of the protagonists at home. In Putin’s case, HE will no longer be feasible minus the defeat and subjugation of Ukraine, and you better believe he knows it.

The world is coming down on Russia in a way that’s unprecedented. I watched a 60 Minutes clip on it. Their forces are running out of fuel and food. Maybe the world will defeat Russia.

With the U.S. in Iraq and Afghanistan, we easily won the war, but lost the peace. Russia seems to have no interest in winning the peace. He has no intention of leaving.

You believe we won those wars? Putin must surely understand that even his overrun and domination of Ukraine must leave him in the same position as ours in Iraq. But he is correct in deciding it better to control and brutally police the place, regardless of the expense, than allow NATO at his doorstep. I don’t think people understand Putin’s real enemy in the world. As with the Chinese, his enemy isn’t us, it’s our relative success and the system enabling it.

Ukrainian people will probably have to go out to the forest and fight for years. My answer is similar to @Nomore_Tantrums.

I think they could lose a few hundred thousand people by the end of the year at the hands of Russian bombs and bullets.

I think Europe should have been lining the border with troops 6 months ago so Putin would not even try this. People should have been leaving Ukraine cities when Russia was sending it’s military to the border. I understand not wanting to leave one’s home and being in denial about what might happen, I have complete empathy for it, but I’m only saying that’s what I think might have been prudent. Europe and the US should have been supplying arms to Ukraine for years now.

The US said they basically didn’t think the Ukrainian people had a chance and the country would what? Topple in three days surrendering to Russia? WTF? The Ukrainian people have lived through Russian rule, they don’t want to go through that again. It’s like expecting Israel to just give up their country. Never again! The Ukrainian people have had their culture and language being squashed by Russia over many years. They want their people to continue and to have their own land. Although, I tend to lean towards the people are more important than the land. Save yourselves!

Such a sad situation. Difficult and scary to watch.

It’s a David and Goliath story. Let’s hope David can win this time. The Vietnamese won, and they were David.

“David” has won on again and off again since ca. 500 BCE when the Scythians handed the Persians their ass on a platter. It’s doable. We have had successful guerilla fighters in our own history, Mosby’s Mauraders of Civil War fame and Frances Marion, the Swamp Fox of the Revolution.

Skirmishes? Perhaps. But wars? There are examples of lopsided and unpredicted outcomes when a vastly more powerful nation decides victory unworthy of the cost as we did in Vietnam. That is not going to happen in Ukraine.

Not necessarily @ HP. The Russians themselves did some guerilla /partisan fighting against Germany and were successful at it, in WWII.

Again, peripheral skirmishes. Don’t misunderstand me. The Russians may well be confronted with bitter resistance and sabotage for years after they overwhelm and occupy Ukraine. But consider that all able bodied Ukranian men will either be killed in this war or upon surrender, surely deported to gulags in faraway lands, while the women and children flee the country, Putin will be free to seed the place and everything in it with Russian “settlers” of his choosing.

Russia will be ruthless. I agree with that. Even if they succeed in taking over Ukraine, any soldiers/fighters they have captured they will enslave or kill.

Ukraine has said Russian POW’s will be released if their mothers come to get them. I wonder if any woman has even thought about doing it? They would come to Ukraine and see the reality instead of the propaganda. Then what? Go back to Russia?

It is the only way.

I like this:

“Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Thursday that the economic situation in Russia is “absolutely unprecedented” and blamed the West for an “economic war.”

Poor freaking baby.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/10/investing/banks-russia-exposure/index.html