My multi-step plan. The first three are what wealthy governments should do, the last three are my suggestions for how the technologies should be used, but let me be clear, I want to do the first three and then let the market decide on the right portfolio of energy technologies to use. We just need to buy the market time and correct for the externality of emissions.
We should stop trying to beggar-thy-neighbor with these treaties that do nothing but act as PR events. Developing nations are NOT going to buy in. The wealthy countries need to act to take care of their own issues, and doing so will bring the price point down to where developing economies might then adopt them.
1) Throw out everything we’re doing right now. It’s all wrong. Start from a clean slate.
2) The wealthy nations of the world should adopt a simple revenue-neutral carbon tax/tariff that starts small, but rises steadily and predictably. This will allow the economy time to react while still signalling that there is now a ticking clock before the cost of emissions is no longer and externality.
3) Solar engineering to extend the time-frame over which we have to react. This is critical. The 2050 date was always just a scare-mongering tactic, but the longer we wait, the more we’re shifting our climate. We can mitigate the temperature portions of the problem immediately through solar engineering (emitting solar reflecting compounds from aircraft is the cheapest). This doesn’t solve the acidification of the oceans, nor is it a long term answer, but it can spread the economic pain out.
4) Encourage fracking for LNG in the short term. Yes, natural gas is not 100% clean, but it’s SO MUCH cleaner and cheaper that it’s the easiest/shortest path to reducing emissions. And that step is WORTH TAKING. There’s huge amounts of LNG out there that could be accessed and it would have the side benefit of reducing Putin’s influence over Europe.
5) Micro-Nuclear Fission & Geo-Thermal for the medium term. Wind and Solar are, I believe, not going to get it done. I hope I’m wrong, because the politicians are pushing them to the exclusion of all other options, and that’s a mistake. Nuclear fission is safe and efficient despite the fact that we’re still using designs from the 1950s. Updated designs would be even safer, produce 1% by volume of the amount of waste, and the half-life of that waste would be far shorter (because we used it more completely). It and geothermal are the two ready-to-go technologies that can produce reliable base-load power at a price point that will be more reliable and predictable. We need to let them be a part of the plan.
6) Fusion in the long term. Nuclear fusion is at a Q ration (output / input) of about 0.7 last I heard. We’re still a ways away from breakeven. But we’ve been making progress and there are multiple innovations that would seem to raise optimism for the future. We must continue to invest in fusion, but we can’t expect it to be ready in time. Maybe it will be….but we can’t depend on it.