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elbanditoroso's avatar

If the news reports are true that Putin was treated for cancer, what can we think about his goals in Ukraine?

Asked by elbanditoroso (33577points) June 5th, 2022

Several articles here is one note that in the last couple months,
a) Putin was treated for cancer, and
b) he survived an assassination attempt

can one begin to think he knows his days are numbered, and therefore doesn’t give a crap about how bad it gets in Ukraine?

Would facing death make you want to improve or damage your legacy? Or do you not care?

and another

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5 Answers

Pandora's avatar

Putin is a sociopath and a narcissist. Because his days are numbered I believe he thinks by uniting Ukraine back with Russia that the people will eventually praise him for having the guts to do this. If he were to die before ever trying to do this, he wouldn’t be considered an important enough figure in history. I think he thinks this will lift him up to the ranks of Peter the Great. He may get a title after he dies, but it will probably be Putin the douche bag slaughterer of women and children. Things were different back in the day. Now people learn so many details. People of power do not have their history written by terrified biographers after they are gone. People get to see everything play out in real time around the world.
So in his case I think he may very well go from Putin the strong Fox, to Putin the cancer-ridden insane leader who destroyed two nations.

Zaku's avatar

I think it’s a lucrative clickbait and newspaper and TV-ad selling story, playing on fears of the idea of a madman in charge of armies and nuclear weapons, who might use them out of mad fearful ideas and desperation, and/or apathy and rage, when faced with potential overthrow, impending death, or just in other ideas about making crazy bluffs or bids for control.

Unfortunately, it kind of more or less fits many of the insane or at least incomprehensible and therefore untrustable people recently put in charge of armies and nuclear arsenals, not just Putin but Kim Jong-un of North Korea, Xi Jinping, and Trump.

Your questions such as:
* “what can we think about his goals in Ukraine?”
* “can one begin to think he knows his days are numbered, and therefore doesn’t give a crap about how bad it gets in Ukraine?”
fit that notion, but are far from being knowable by typical Internet observers in the USA.

I think it’s a valid concern, but that we’re not informed enough to speculate very accurately. Even military intelligence analysts must think in terms of possibilities and contingencies, and not “oh I know and understand all about the national command authority of various nations, and their rational predictable interactions so I know what will happen in the future”.

But to indulge your request for speculation, if I were Putin, I would be a very very different sort of person, and would be making decisions based on very very different reasons and goals. But if I had what I think might be Putin’s mindset, and I were faced with impending death or replacement, well I don’t know – I’d be acting in the interest of things I cared about. I don’t think I would be sending the Russian army to die in Ukraine, nor making grave threats to the rest of the world. Those things look to me like someone who’s desperately trying to stay in power by starting a war to gain popularity and make overthrowing him in wartime seem like a bad idea to his internal opponents.

Or, if you’re just asking in general, what effect would impeding death have on my considerations, I would be thinking more of my legacy’s impact on the future, and what (positive) effects I’d like to have.

flutherother's avatar

As far as Ukraine is concerned Putin is a cancer. Like a cancer his sole purpose is to expand his territory bringing destruction and death.

JLeslie's avatar

He looks like he is on steroid treatment.

What type of blood cancer? I know two people now who live with a blood cancer and it doesn’t affect them very much. I know very little about blood cancers, but it seems like some are dire and some aren’t.

I think he feels under pressure to do what he believes is right. I believe the reports that for many years he has been making riches off the backs of others, but right now I think he really believes he is working towards trying to put Russia back as it should be in his mind. Couple that with he is sociopathic enough to not care about the pain he is inflicting.

I heard the Ukranian president say Putin possibly believes the propaganda that Ukraine is full of Neo-Nazis. That had me wondering, if that is true, who exactly is influencing Putin in that realm? Russia only has state media, so of course it is not balanced and real journalism, and I would assume it is directed by Putin? Or, is it a chicken and egg situation?

What a nightmare.

I hadn’t heard someone tried to kill him. I guess it will be the only way to stop him. Is there a VP who automatically takes his place? I don’t know how that works in Russia.

Entropy's avatar

So…. we don’t know if this is true. It could easily be propaganda. So be careful about speculating on the basis of this. You’re very much going to be out over your skis.

IF we assume it’s true, and I absolutely don’t agree that we should assume that, it seems likely that this explains Putin’s unwillingness to back down in Ukraine. He may figure that he’s securing his legacy and Russia’s dominance of European Oil/LNG markets for the forseeable future. He might figure that as soon as he passes, his successor will be given a clean slate by naive westerners who always make that mistake, and thus can reset the sanctions regime to zero.

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