I think it’s a lucrative clickbait and newspaper and TV-ad selling story, playing on fears of the idea of a madman in charge of armies and nuclear weapons, who might use them out of mad fearful ideas and desperation, and/or apathy and rage, when faced with potential overthrow, impending death, or just in other ideas about making crazy bluffs or bids for control.
Unfortunately, it kind of more or less fits many of the insane or at least incomprehensible and therefore untrustable people recently put in charge of armies and nuclear arsenals, not just Putin but Kim Jong-un of North Korea, Xi Jinping, and Trump.
Your questions such as:
* “what can we think about his goals in Ukraine?”
* “can one begin to think he knows his days are numbered, and therefore doesn’t give a crap about how bad it gets in Ukraine?”
fit that notion, but are far from being knowable by typical Internet observers in the USA.
I think it’s a valid concern, but that we’re not informed enough to speculate very accurately. Even military intelligence analysts must think in terms of possibilities and contingencies, and not “oh I know and understand all about the national command authority of various nations, and their rational predictable interactions so I know what will happen in the future”.
But to indulge your request for speculation, if I were Putin, I would be a very very different sort of person, and would be making decisions based on very very different reasons and goals. But if I had what I think might be Putin’s mindset, and I were faced with impending death or replacement, well I don’t know – I’d be acting in the interest of things I cared about. I don’t think I would be sending the Russian army to die in Ukraine, nor making grave threats to the rest of the world. Those things look to me like someone who’s desperately trying to stay in power by starting a war to gain popularity and make overthrowing him in wartime seem like a bad idea to his internal opponents.
Or, if you’re just asking in general, what effect would impeding death have on my considerations, I would be thinking more of my legacy’s impact on the future, and what (positive) effects I’d like to have.