General Question

elbanditoroso's avatar

Why should Iran agree to a new JCPOA agreement if there is a possibility that Trump will be elected?

Asked by elbanditoroso (33577points) August 22nd, 2022

I was just reading that the negotiations between Iran and the (original) signatories to the (original) JCPOA are close to finishing, and that there may be a new agreement soon.

Why would Iran agree? Last time they negotiated an agreement, Trump unilaterally ripped it up and took the US off of it. (and frankly, made things a whole lot worse).

Since Trump is (probably) going to run again in 2024, what’s the incentive for Iran to sign a new agreement? What’s to prevent Trump from shredding an agreement a second time?

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19 Answers

kritiper's avatar

IF IF IF there is a possibility that Trump will get elected. An extremely remote possibility,IMO.
They would agree because they know that Trump is nothing but trouble for the US.

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WhyNow's avatar

Let’s allow Iran to have nuclear weapons, what can go wrong?
Why should America (the original evil empire) have nukes?
We need equity among nations.

mazingerz88's avatar

The incentive for Iran is to show the world it is always open for peaceful negotiations and relations no matter who is at the other end of the table.

Pandora's avatar

Make it so, that if the US should pull out of the deal without “proven”, real cause that we would have to pay a billion dollar fine. None of the republicans would like that. Then Trump can’t pull out without having proof that they faulted on the deal.

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ragingloli's avatar

Who are you to have the audacity to “allow” a sovereign nation to have the right to defend themselves by any means necessary?
Shall.Not.Be.Infringed!
#RightToBearNuclearArms

WhyNow's avatar

^ My ‘audacity’ comes from not a country but religious zealots holding a country full
of humans hostage (and the world) to their murderous death cult ideology.

Are you citing the constitution in defense of a government that screams ‘death to America?’

What does that mean?

ragingloli's avatar

Iran has the god-given right to defend itself from the tyrannical world government.

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Kropotkin's avatar

The first thing to note is that there’s no evidence that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, or even has any intention of doing so.

Given that Iran isn’t developing nuclear weapons, or producing anything close to weapons grade uranium, you might wonder what all the fuss is about and why there’s so much hysteria around Iran’s nuclear programme.

Iran is an “official enemy”, so from the perspective of the US and its assorted allies and client states, is a geopolitical villain. Villans are scary and can’t be trusted.

Iran uses the paranoia around its nuclear programme for diplomatic bargaining: Iran agrees to reduce its operation, and sanctions are lifted.

If Trump wins in 2024, and tears up the agreement again, Iran simply scales up its operations and breaches the enrichment limits for a new cycle of fear and hysteria, until the next agreement to scale down its programme for another easing of sanctions.

Or maybe Trump gets to make a “better deal” for his own narcissistic aggrandisement, which is probably why he reneged on the agreement before—because it wasn’t his deal.

Entropy's avatar

The better question is why EITHER side is interested. Iran was already cheating on the spirit of the agreement before the ink was dry. The original deal excluded a bunch of military sites where Iran was known to be doing nuclear work from inspections and the process for actually holding Iran to any accountability for violating the deal had a step that required Iran to AGREE that it had broken the agreement. It was a worthless deal. The new deal is going to be even MORE worthless. Trump is irrelevant.

That having been said, I don’t know how well Iran really knows US politics, but Trump has about as much chance of winning in 2024 as a dead sea otter. After what he pulled at the end of 2020, the moderate Republicans an independents will vote against him en masse. At this point, even Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren could beat Trump….and they’re both very weak candidates. The Republicans would be fools to nominate him. Though if he runs, he probably would get nominated.

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